Top classic horses take on Bluegrass Cup
We’re now about 6 weeks out from the Breeders Bowl Classic, and horses looking for a spot in the field are making their final starts looking for those all-important stakes points. This edition of the Grade II Bluegrass Cup Classic features the #3, #9 and #13-ranked older male dirt classic horses, as well as several looking to move way up in the rankings. We also have two fillies taking on the boys. The Classic is run at 9 furlongs over Kentucky’s dirt course. The stakes record is held by Juvenile Echo, who ran the distance in 2002 for trainer pm with a time of 1:47.2.
Note: Rankings mentioned are for the dirt classic division, and are accurate for the respective age groups.
Post 1 features an amazingly consistent older horse in Quincannon. He’s raced 28 times, and has won an astonishing half of those starts. The lilbitfarm trainee has been on an interesting win-third-win streak for his last five races. This son of Grand Slam is fresh off of a nice listed stake win at 9 furlongs. he’s a front-running horse that has won all of his races in a ire-to-wire fashion; conversely, he’s never won when he hasn’t spent the entire race in front. His need for the lead should ensure a blistering pace as other horses try to run him down and knock him out of the competition. If he gets an uncontested lead, he’s going to be rather difficult to beat. He’s the 9-2 favorite, and ranked #34 in the division, for good reason.
Post 2 will briefly hold Strike A Boundry, a 5yo son of Strike The Gold. Trained by arsprize, the horse is ranked #94 in the division. His last four races have ended in seconds and thirds, but the last win was in an allowance in February. Still, he’s been right up there at the wire. That second two races back in the GII Abraham Lincoln (where he put up a 113SP) indicates that while he hasn’t made a strong case for a win, he most definitely could be a factor in the placings. 6-1 odds due in part to that 113, but probably deserves to be more like 10-1.
Breaking from Post 3 will be Fitting Solution. The Seeking The Gold 5yo holds the #67 ranking for trainer pg45. He’s fresh off a win in the listed Wolfmother Stakes at 8.5 furlongs where he sat comfortably in second pretty much the whole way around the Kentucky track before pulling away strongly to win by 2. Solution is making only his fourth start in graded company, but his record supports his entry; he’s run second and fourth in two of those three tries. FS has been mostly miling, and indeed has tried this distance just once in the GII Brook Lynn last year (he ran fourth by eight with a 103). FS tends to prefer to be on or near the lead. He’ll likely be pushing Quincannon into setting pretty fast fractions. 12-1 odds are understandable given recent slowish speeds, but as the speeds are in part tied to the competition, he’s better than he appears based on the morning line.
Post 4 features one of the two fillies in the field. Troubled is a talented but very light raced Fit To Fight filly saddled by smokers. She has six wins from 10 starts. Her lone step into stakes company was in February, but she didn’t do so well with a seventh-place finish. With a bit more on-track experience now, she’s a better bet for stakes, but against the big boys in this field? The 16-1 odds overstate her likelihood of winning. She is coming off two back-to-back allowance wins with convincing margins and SPs, but still will probably not show her best ability here. Ranked #242 in her division.
Breaking from Post 5 will be dixiedotco’s Sensationalize. The 4yo A.P. Indy colt has been running very well in graded company all year, but has picked up just one win in the GI Oaktree handicap. He seems to generally do well at 9-10 furlongs, so this race is about perfect for him. Sensationalize is a deep closer, so expect him to dawdle along for the first three-quarters or so before getting into gear. 10-1 odds based on his recent lower SPs (many around 100), but he can’t be dismissed as a noncontender. He’s #13 in his division.
Blaster Rock, set to break from Post 6, is the other filly in the field. She’s has proven capable at the allowance level with 4 wins from 28 starts, but isn’t quite up to the challenges this race represents. Trained out of the deeprock3 stable, the Old Vic(GB) filly has yet to crack an 85 SP. Her entry in this race is really is a puzzle. The odds, listed at 99-1, are almost assuredly higher than that. She’s ranked #454 in her division.
Post 7 features looney1’s Not Bluffing. The 5yo son of Pine Bluff has earned his #48 ranking the hard way – with lots of good finishes in tough races. It’s rare to see a 5yo that his as good as Not Bluffing is who has maintained his form over 4 years of campaigns. Not Bluffing stands out as a rare one; he was a graded-placed stakes winner at 2, multiple stakes winner at 3, GII-winner at 4, and this year has a GIII win. That last one was in the Mohammed Ali at 9f at this very track April; Not Bluffing pulled off the narrowest of wins by a nose with a 103SP. He followed that up with a closing second in the New Hampshire, but his last two races were uncharacteristically lousy. Not Bluffing has had a nice rest (he’s been off for seven weeks) and should be well tuned for a big effort. If he’s within about 3 lengths of the lead at the half pole, has a good chance. 10-1 odds.
Sensatious (not to be confused with Sensationalize) will break from Post 8. The 6yo son of Conquistador Cielo is ranked #9, and has earned 14 wins from 26 starts. Astoundingly, Sensatious has finished out of the top 3 just once in the last two years. That one odd finish was in the Equinics. This year alone Sensatious has five listed stakes wins, finished second to Solar Song in the GI Michael-Strike, and ran third in the GI Movieland Shiny Cup behind Twist Of Lemon and Wonderboy Cougar. This is a heck of a horse who has been brought along by trainer coffee in a very smart manner. He typically stays about four lengths off the lead and makes his move going into the final turn. 5-1 odds, but I’d give him a slight edge over favorite Quincannon.
Post 9 features Barb’s Dutch Painter, a 4yo Miswaki colt trained by dreambig. He was solid as a 2yo, seemed to be breaking through in his 3yo summer, but at 4 hasn’t quote reached the level of skill needed to successfully compete here. He does have a pair of 100+ races this year, but his best finish in a stakes was a second at a mile in a smallish field. The distance is not out of the question (he ran a 106 at 9 to win an allowance 5 starts back) but I don’t think he’s capable of handling the top horses in this field. 26-1 odds are pretty spot on.
Post 10 will hold The Indy City, an A.P. Indy 4yo trained by punter69. He has 8 wins from 33 starts, plus an additional 11 board finishes. Looks like TIC is one of those late-maturing colts. In his 12 starts this year, seven have resulted in 100+ SPs, and four have been wins. TIC tried the 10 furlong GII Upstate BB last start and faded in the stretch. The drop to 9 furlongs should be a big help. Would not surprise at all if TIC were around at the wire. He’s ranked #134 in the division, and will likely move way up by year’s end if he’s not work out by the grueling schedule. 10-1 odds.
God’s Gift will grace Post 11. The lulu trainee is a 4yo son of Fusaichi Pegasus. He was doing really really well through January when he won the GIII Big A, but since has struggled with only a third in an allowance to show for it. When he was in shape, he tended to like running on or near the lead. Unless his trainer has found a magic potion, odds are he’ll try to do the same but end up fading down the stretch. Will help contribute to a fast pace, however. 10-1 odds.
High Otto, ranked #29 in the division, will start from Post 12. The 5yo son of High Yield won the 9 furlong GII Iowa Cornhusker BB Classic two starts back with a healthy 107SP. he also has an allowance and stakes win to his credit for the year. After a poor showing in his last start in a listed stake, trainer venezolano decided Otto needed some time off, so he’s spent much of the last 7 weeks on the farm resting up after a tough spring campaign. As the break was under two months probably won’t need this race to get back in racing form. IOW, look for a good effort. He’s a midpack closer and a very good one at that. 9-1 odds.
Breaking from Post 13 is possibly the most well-known horse in the field. Wonderboy Cougar dominated the classic division last year and earned an Eclipse nomination. This year he has yet to make a trip to the winner’s circle, but he’s a very dangerous horse who deserves a lot of respect. He opened the year with a second in the Equinics, ran second again in the Sand Castle Classic, and yet another second in the Movieland Shiny. Despite the apparent preference for seconds over wins, I have a feeling this race will see Cougar turn it around. He’s been mostly running at 10 where he through the middle section of the race leads and then is run down by closers. The drop down to 9 furlongs just might help alleviate that problem. Even if he can’t hold on for the win, it’s almost certain he’ll finish no worse than fifth. Trainer karlch seems to be doing all he can to keep the son of Barathea healthy for a chance to avenge his second in last year’s Breeders Bowl Classic. 5-1 odds.
The far outside post belongs to Lite’s Out, trained by the legendary texasace. The 4yo Sadler’s Wells colt has run just 12 times, but has 5 wins including the 14-furlong GIII Witness Protection program. Lite’s Out has been primarily running long routes, but he has tried 9 furlongs twice. Both races saw him put up a 97SP for a second and a fourth place finish. This race looks to be much too short. Still, he has a heck of a closing kick, and if the race sets up right it’s possible he’ll get in gear soon enough to take part in the post-race photo. Would feel much better about his chances if that race were at least 10 furlongs. Ranked #933 in this division, but #72 in the long group. 29-1 odds.
This field is so packed with talent it’s tough to say who the likely winner is. There’s no question that Wonderboy Cougar, Sensatious, and Quincannon are the best of the best, but Sensationalize, High Otto, and Fitting Solution are good enough to play a part. If I had to pick a winner, it would be Wonderboy Cougar, but really just about any of these entrants could spoil it.