First, a quick correction from the previous article. I stated that “One day, Kentucky could be speed-favoring; while another day it could benefit the closers.” While this may be true, I have no evidence, at this point, whether it is or isn’t. What I meant to say is that one day the track could be playing very fast (5 track records set), while another day it could be playing very slow (track records missed by 5 seconds). I apologize for any confusion.
I first began playing this game back in week 1124 (August 18, 2001). After a recommendation from a friend who played another horse racing game I was involved in, I started playing, a little turned off by the once-a-week racing. Once school “started” again, I stopped playing. I returned at Spring Break the following year, week 1313 (February 23, 2002), narrowly missing the Equinics. This time, though, it would be a permanent addiction. I started clicking around, and found that there was actually a community to the game. The message boards were lively, and the Sim Racing Form was always there to provide a good read. I started participating and opening more stables. I quickly found myself entrenched, learning about horses other than my own.
The reason I mention this background is because I happened to join the Sim during one of the greatest horse campaigns we have ever seen. I had heard of horses such as Cecil Roo, Amanda Jane, Buda With The Slew, and Enough Knock. However, there was always one horse, which in my mind was ahead of the rest. His name was Joe Cayenne. I did not know very much about horse racing at this time, and had no idea what the real Eclipse Awards were, let alone the Sim Eclipse Awards. As it turns out, his 2001 campaign was the best of that year, as voted by the community, and he was awarded the 2001 Horse of the Year title. Of course, I had no idea about this. I merely knew him as the leading money earner, the top horse in all the rankings, and the all-around best horse this sim had. From that point on, whenever I thought of the sim, Joe Cayenne was the first thing that came to mind. Even now, when I need to come up with a list of all-time great sim horses, Joe Cayenne is generally the first one I think of. I never really watched him race, and I didn’t really know anything about him. He has always been a “legend” to me – a monster too great to be contained by one race. Since him, I have always compared the great horses – Storm Dog, Allied Assault, etc. – to him. And yet, to me, he has always been a myth. So with my newfound knowledge of speed figures, I decided to look into the history of Joe Cayenne. And while I was at it, I figured “what would be better than to compare a current great with the ‘all-time legend’?”
Early last year, I made a post on the message board mentioning how I no longer knew who the top horses in the game were. I didn’t know the names of any Grade 1 winners, with the exception of Allied Assault. Soon after, thanks to the excellent work of Knightmare’s Big Race Preview and Big Race Recap, more horses became well-known. That was followed up by some controversial horses making waves. Anticosti’s win in the Bluegrass Derby was arguably the most talked about horse and race since I Seek U’s Triple Crown in 2003. He became the most loved/hated horse since Ray Of Pye. And while his dirt battles were becoming more and more popular, the turf division started burning up, getting hotter than it ever had before. While perennial fan-favorite Allied Assault, coming off back-to-back Eclipse Award winning seasons (in different categories, no less), was running better than ever, newcomers had entered the field. 2004 Horse of the Year Sunnybank Memorial was finally able to hook up, mano-a-mano, with him, as they now both fell into the older horse category. However, what they did not expect was that a newcomer, a three-year-old, would enter the fray, causing problems for both of them. Becoming the biggest 3-way rivalry the Sim has ever seen, Horseshoe Bay decided to throw his hat into the ring. He cruised through the rankings and plowed over his three-year-old opponents, capping off his amazing run with a win in the Breeders’ Bowl Turf. It resulted in the public viewing him as not only the three-year-old of the year, but also the turf horse of the year. And if that wasn’t enough, he was also crowned 2005 Horse Of The Year, continuing a tradition of a three-year-old colt winning Turf Horse of the Year, and the second year in a row of a three-year-old winning Horse of the Year.
The question now, is whose campaign was better? It will be tough to directly compare the two. One of the biggest notes is that speed figures differ between age groups, so comparing a three-year-old’s races to a six-year-old’s races will generally yield an advantage to the elder. Horseshoe Bay only ran 3 times against horses older than 3, and he only won one of those. But, at the same time, the Eclipse voters had to directly compare the horses, regardless of age. And those voters found Horseshoe Bay to be the best horse, regardless of age. So I will attempt to do the same. Note that all speed figures given are in present-day numbers, unless otherwise noted.
As different as these two horses are, they are surprisingly similar. Joe Cayenne started out the 2001 year a little slow. He only won 1 of his first 4 races, and only 2 of his first 10. It’s true that the Georgia track seems to have played a little slow in the first couple of years, but his first race in the Sanders Stakes, where he finished seventh with a present-day 92.9 speed figure, was the slowest running in the history of the race. His worst race of the year came next, in the G1 Desucko Stakes, but it was a yielding turf, so he gets a pass. His win in the John Scott Appreciation Stakes was again the slowest running of the race, a full 2 seconds slower than his win in the same race the following year. However, it was again an off-track. His one other win in those first 10 starts, in the Little Guppy Classic, was again two seconds slower than any other running of that race. Granted, he won both races by 4 lengths and 3-3/4 lengths, respectively, so he didn’t need to go any faster. His turnaround came in June, when he finally started showing the speed he teased earlier in his career. In the second-fastest running of the Doomben Cup, he put together a 102.2 speed figure, finishing third. A 104 speed figure in the Royally Modest Cup earned him another 3rd place finish, after losing the Golden Platter Handicap to a stakes record time. The Sword Swallower Stakes, which he won by almost 7 lengths, was a 98.8 speed figure, but that was all he needed. The Man Of War Stakes, which currently holds one of the fastest record times, got him a 105.8 figure while missing by a head. But where it matters most, in the Coalminer Cup, Breeders Bowl Turf, and Japan Classic, he won them all in blowouts. His best race, the Breeders Bowl Turf, was a 6-3/4 length romp with a 108.4 figure. Note that the jockey probably slowed him down, as he assumed the lead at the ¾ mark. The other two got him 103.2 and 107.5 speed figures, respectively. His 5 12f races on firm turf averaged a 102 speed figure.
Horseshoe Bay didn’t start out slow, but started out young, so the speeds were inherently lower. He wasn’t selected Horse of the Year based on his performance in Allowances, so I’m going to ignore the first 4 races of his year for the sake of comparison. Not that they weren’t impressive, but they were not at his best distance, and they can’t really be compared to graded stakes level. The only race that requires a speed figure conversion is his win in the Sydney Derby, his first in a record-breaking string of 6 straight Grade 1 wins. He earned a 105.5 figure after pulling away to win by four. As Mike said earlier, jockeys have become smarter over the years. So this number is slightly lower than what it would have been had Joe Cayenne run the same race. This race, and all six in Horseshoe Bay’s record string, were against only three-year-olds as well, making them presumably lower than those for older horses. Regardless of all these facts, however, Horseshoe Bay set the stakes record for the Sydney Derby, with a time of 2:30-1/5. His slowest win came in his largest victory, the Adelaide Derby. With a 100.2 speed figure, the race was not overly impressive. But he pulled away to win by 4-1/2, so it is very likely that he could have run faster. Two huge wins followed in the Derby de English and the SIM Sports Irish Derby, where he earned a 108.8 and 110.0 speed figure, respectively. In the latter, which was the only running of the race, he posted a finish time of 2:29-2/5. While comparisons are not perfect, this time matched that of Rain God in the 3yo+ Lots of Luck, the stakes record for that race set in 2005. While Rain God ran slightly faster (110.3), they were very close. This race was, at the time, Horseshoe Bay’s biggest test, as he only won by 1 length. He picked up a 104.6 speed figure in 2:30-2/5 in the Owner’s Stakes at Ontario winning by 2-1/2. It did not set the record of 2:29-2/5, set by rival Allied Assault in 2003, but again, it did not have to. The last race in the string came in the Prix du Jockey Club, where he went the 12f course in 2:31, for a 101.2. He had poor races in 2 of his last three, but in the middle was the Breeders Bowl Turf. He could not quite best his rival Sunnybank Memorial’s 2:28-3/5 from the previous year, but ran a very fast 2:29-1/5, earning a blistering 111.
After analyzing their individual seasons, it seems to leave us even. Horseshoe Bay clearly had the better overall year, but he was facing much easier competition, as the three-year-old turf division was consistent of very few stars. So why not try to directly compare the two? They each ended their seasons with the same three races – the Coalminer Cup, the Breeders Bowl Turf, and the Japan Classic. The Coalminer Cup stakes record belongs to Allied Assault, in a time of 2:29-2/5. The 2005 running, in a time of 2:30, ended with a win for Minesweeper; Horseshoe Bay finished 7th. It was one of the worst performances of his career, where he ran a 96.6 speed figure and had almost no closing kick. The jump in age may have briefly spooked him, because he looked flat. His first run at the track, in the Adelaide Derby, while not blistering fast, was a walkover. The 2001 running was a dominant performance by Joe Cayenne. The time was slow (2:30-3/5), but he proved the year before that he could run it very fast. The speed figure of 103.2 would have put him 3rd in 2005, but he won his running, against horses such as Project Thor and Amanda Jane, by 7-1/2. He did, however, seem to be a huge fan of this race – he won it in 2000, 2001, and 2002. I will skip the Breeders Bowl for now, and move on to the Japan Cup. Again, Horseshoe Bay threw a clunker, this time bouncing off of his amazing Breeders Bowl performance. The race record of 2:28-3/5, set by Bristol Rovers in 2003, was not even approached by Jupiter’s Moons(IRE)’ 2:29-4/5. In a star-studded field, similar to that of the Breeders Bowl, the race was taken by a three-year-old. But Horseshoe Bay finished eighth, with a 96.5 speed figure. Again with no closing kick, he ended 14-1/2 behind the winner. Joe Cayenne, on the other hand, blew out the field again in the 2001 running. The clocking system malfunctioned during the race and was unable to give an official time, although the unofficial time is roughly 2:30. He earned a speed figure of 107.5, winning by 3-1/2. The field was not as star-studded as Horseshoe Bay’s, but Joe Cayenne ran a much better race. This leaves us with only one left – the Breeders Bowl Turf.
The Breeders Bowl Turf record belongs to Sunnybank Memorial, with his 2004 win in 2:28-3/5. It just so happens that both Joe Cayenne and Horseshoe Bay won the Breeders Bowl Turf on years when the Breeders Bowl was in New York. So while there may be an individual race bias, there is no different track bias. Just on numbers alone, it would appear that Horseshoe Bay is the better of the two in this race. He ran the race in 2:29-1/5, earning a 111.0 speed figure. Joe Cayenne, on the other hand, ran the race in 2:29-4/5, with a 108.5 speed figure. So let’s take a closer look. As it turns out, Joe Cayenne sealed his Eclipse Awards with this victory, as he took a close race on the books and turned it into a romp, winning by 6-3/4. A yearlong battle between him and Project Thor pretty much ended after this race, when Joe Cayenne assumed the lead at the 9f mark and never looked back. Horseshoe Bay’s Breeders Bowl was much closer, winning by 3. His time was faster, but he was pushed harder. And yet, we need to look even closer to really understand what happened. Joe Cayenne’s opponents totaled 13, and 11 of them were millionaires. On the other hand, only two of his opponents (Project Thor and Dusty Dance) topped $5 million in their career. Horseshoe Bay, on the other hand, had a much tougher field. Of his 13 opponents, 12 of them are millionaires. On top of that, 4 of these horses (Rain God, Sunnybank Memorial, Bristol Rovers, Allied Assault) have topped $5 million in their careers. Of those, only Bristol Rovers is under $7 million. Even more astounding is that 12 of those 13 opponents are still active, meaning that their total bankrolls are going up. The 2001 running has a mere 4 of Joe Cayenne’s opponents still active, and none of them are currently racing. Yes, purses have gone up. But how about this stat. Joe Cayenne’s opponents won 21.5% (169 of 789) of their races. Horseshoe Bay’s opponents won 36.1% (184 of 509) of their races. Mike said in his e-mail that speed figures are “based on different horse classes.” Facing one of the toughest competitions in the history of the sim, Horseshoe Bay prevailed.
So who had the better campaign? Certainly they both have their ups and downs. Horseshoe Bay had a better winning percentage, but it was within his age group. When Joe Cayenne won his races near the end of the year, he was dominant. He never won by less than 3-1/2. But they pay me for my opinion, so here it is. Joe Cayenne won two out of three head-to-head comparisons against Horseshoe Bay. But “Bay’s” performance in the Breeders Bowl, at the same track and distance as “Joe”, was far superior to anything Joe Cayenne showed that year. In my opinion, they were pretty much even going into that race. And although it may not have been a record time, and it may not have been as dominant a performance, the class he beat, as a three-year-old no less, was absolutely unbelievable. And for that, I give the award to Horseshoe Bay.
That’s not to say he will have the better career. Joe Cayenne had much more than one year; in fact, the records he set were done before and after his Horse of the Year season, but not during. So Joe will always live on as a legend to me. But maybe, just maybe, when I think of the sim from now on, my mind will shoot straight to Joe Cayenne…and Horseshoe Bay.