Short Field but Great Stories
Fernazzle Classic Cup Stakes
Grade III
A mile and one quarter on Firm Turf
$150,000
All horses, 3 years old
A rather short field here this week but some very interesting stories including a major surface switch. It should certainly make for an entertaining race. Let’s take a look:
1 – THE UNDERSTUDY(IRE) ODDS OWNER WIN% JOCKEY WIN% TOP SPEED AVG SPEED RANK 6/1 Sykesy 18.5% G.Stepnoski 7% 94.1 92.3 25
(THEATRICAL(IRE) x BAHRI x IN THE WINGS(GB)) I watched this colt take third in the Sydney Derby Trial awhile back and really looked good doing it. Since then he has kind of struggled with finishes of 9th and 14th and big drops in speed figures. Now trainer Sykesy must wonder whether this colt was a young wonder and has passed his prime or if that was just a speed bump on the way to bigger and better things. Jockey Stepnoski has also been struggling as of late and may not be the answer.
| 2 – KEPLER BERZERK | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/2 | Bobo | 28.2% | T.Baxter | 11% | 95.5 | 92.5 | 10 |
(WOODMAN x A.P. INDY x DANZIG) This well bred chestnut colt seems to be coming into his own lately and he really likes this distance. Trainer Bobo has a wonderful win percentage and owes some of it to this colt who has hit the board 12 of 15 times with over half a million in earnings. The big colt is in the capable hands of jockey Baxter who has also looked good so far this year. This could be a contender.
| 3 – GALLIC CHARM(FR) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | Alba1 | 6.7% | E.Disher | 8% | 91.7 | 86.0 | 113 |
(SILIC (FR) x SHAHRASTANI x ICY GROOM) Trainer Alba1 has to wonder what they need to do with this horse as the French bred easily ran his best race with a 95 SPF in the Port Marshua GIII Handicap and finished 7th. That’s a pretty tough race for that speed. Otherwise, this colt has been looking good all year with multiple finishes in the top three. It just seems like he backs down in the Graded Stakes. What’s a trainer to do?
| 4 – K’S RUMOR HAS IT | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/2 | Kronus | 26.3% | R.Owen | 16% | N/A | N/A | 200 |
(SADLER’S WELLS x SEATTLE SLEW x NIJINSKY II) I’ve had the opportunity to see this impressive colt run a couple of times including the Bluegrass Derby in his last race. It was his disappointing finish in that race that made trainer Kronus decide to give him a turn on the green stuff, thus his entry here. You just never know about that kind of move, whether you’ve had a horse with a secret yearning for the turf all along or one that is born for the dirt. This should be an interesting race for both of them and capable jockey Owen as well.
| 5 – REFUSE TO TANGO(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2/1 | CommBank | 27.9% | L.Fountain | 12% | 104.9 | 96.6 | 29 |
(REFUSE TO BEND (IRE) x KINGMAMBO x SILVER HAWK) Refuse to Lose might be a better name for this colt this year as he only finished out of the winners circle one time in his past six outings. That was a little longer race and is the only question mark here at a mile and a quarter. He broke the SPF century mark last time with a sizzling 104 and trainer CommBank has to be excited about the prospects for this colt. He has one of the track’s best jockeys in the irons in Fountain and ought to win this race with the team they have brought this week.
| 6 – CHANGE O’ LUCK(AUS) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | Sabalou | 15.2% | P.Bangs | 24% | 94.5 | 88.7 | 153 |
(LUCKY OWNERS (AUS) x MARSCAY(AUS) x ROUND TABLE) A change in distance seemed to be just the tonic for this colt who has seen better finishes and better speeds since he switched to a mile and a quarter. Trainer Sabalou has sent him out at that length the past two and he has responded well including a win in the Cyclone Larry Derby allowance two back. He is going against a little tougher group here though but jockey Bangs is one of the best in the business and will help mightily..
Morning Line = 5-2-4-1-3-6
Yoss Tipsheet = 5-2-6-3
Paz Picks = 5-2-4-1
He’s been off his game lately but I think this is a good spot for THE UNDERSTUDY to start to get it back together and to finish fourth. I’m going to take a chace that even with the surface change, K’S RUMOR HAS IT is too good a horse so will catch part of the board. KEPLER BERZERK seems to keep getting better and will gather a second in this race. I truly believe that REFUSE TO TANGO is the best horse here this week and he’s on his game and I don’t see anyone beating him.
Good luck to all runners!
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