MD Distaff Grade III
MD Distaff
Grade III
A mile and one eighth
Fast Dirt
$150,000
Fillies and mares, 3 years old and up
Middle Jewel day continues here today in our 12th race which pits three of the top ten ranked fillies and mares in the classic dirt division against each other. Although we have 12 runners, it seems like a three horse race with Waki Notion, Squall Is A Storm and Empire Reef much the better against the rest of the pack. One of the long shots may get a nose up in the last few strides to steal 3rd and ruin a few trifecta tickets as it looks like the best bet today would be an across the board bet with one of the three horses mentioned above. If you wish to make a stab at the trifecta then I suggest you wheel some of the long shots at the back as a tri-box with the favorites doesn’t seem to return enough to warrant the bet. Check my picks at the bottom of the page.
PP1 67/1 GREENSLEEVES
(
C Gerhke ( 306 – 49 – 52 – 38 – 16% )
Trainer: ruok
As with fellow three year old Copalachee, Greensleeves place here was probably more of mistake than a strategic move. She managed a 96 rating last time out which is more than enough to take on the best three year olds but in a race with three top ten ranked older horses, her chances here are almost impossible. However, take the top three away and with a career best race she may like her chance at a minor part of the purse money. At best she may finish 6th.
PP2 11/1 BERENGUELA
(TALE OF THE CAT x SEEKING THE GOLD x IN REALITY)
B Child ( 255 – 34 – 33 – 42 – 13% )
Trainer: Fernando
At the end of last year, Bernguela looked like a filly that was ready to enter the elite ranks as she finished strongly in her last three races of that year and the first one of this year. The highlight of those four races was a win in Annie Oakley Stakes G-3 where she ranked well with a 108 speed rating. But after a try at a mile and a half four races back, she has had a tough time recovering. The low spot was last time out when she finished with an 86 rating and lost to a host of allowance horses including Absolved who takes off in the next gate. Have we already seen the best from her or does she have more to prove? It’s hard to say but I’ll list her as my sleeper pick.
PP3 12/1 ABSOLVED
(VINDICATION x PULPIT x MI SELECTO)
JR Fraser ( 64 – 7 – 5 – 6 – 11% )
Trainer: luckyhobo
Fresh off a win last time out in The
PP4 3/1 WAKI NOTION
(MISWAKI x NIJINSKY II x DR. FAGER)
V
Trainer: looney1
The #5 ranked Waki Notion enters our morning line favorite and deservedly so. As a winner of five graded stakes, she is the one to beat. Her last win came two races back in the Willie Shoemaker G-1 where she showed her now famous closing style coming from as far back as 19th place to win by almost 3 lengths. She shortens up just a bit today but is coming off a 8 week layoff and I wonder if she’s fully ready to give her best. She is facing some stiff competition but if the pace sets up correctly you should see her come flying as they enter the second turn. With the most consistent numbers and having already proved herself against the next best two, I would still have to say that it’s her race to lose.
PP5 9/2 SQUALL IS A STORM
(SUMMER SQUALL x STORM BIRD x
V
Trainer: meguire4th
Sandwiched in the gates between the other two favorites, Squall Is A Storm, the #6 ranked mare has been up and down for the last six months. While she has put up some good number’s she hasn’t managed to find the winner’s circle in her last ten races. Her last win dates back to July 30th of last year although she has managed a few second place finishes. This is not the first time that Waki Notion, Empire Reef and Squall Is A Storm have mixed it up. However, Waki Notion seems to have the upper hand each time. Trainer meguire4th is not used to loses as he is one of the most highly respected trainer in the business and along with his other stables have managed to place among the elite in win percentages. This filly will need a win here in order to keep that top 10 ranking but she’ll have to show a bit more than what she has lately.
PP6 9/2 EMPIRE REEF
(EMPIRE MAKER x MILL REEF x HALO)
Trainer: lenny13
Finishing our top 10 entrants at #9, Empire Reef, the four year old daughter of Empire Maker, has three graded wins in her resume’ but has been showing signs of fatigue in her last few races. She loves to go to the front but starting late last year she had a nasty reputation of giving up the lead in the stretch. In last year’s Breeder’s Bowl Distaff G-1 she kept to the task almost the whole way only to be run down and finishing 3rd. Trainer lenny13 has noticed the same and has experimented with both distance and even a surface change last time out but with the same results. Normally, this would be the time of year when you would see signs of maturity in four year olds but she has been running flat. Perhaps she is just a late bloomer and could shock the favorite.
PP7 38/1 COPALACHEE
(
R Tarter ( 98 – 10 – 6 – 3 – 10% )
Trainer: roachdale
Perhaps missing the “and up” in the race restrictions, the three year old Copalachee may be trying older horses a bit early in her career. Without even stake win against other three year olds you have to think her entrant here is either a mistake (we’ve all done that from time to time) or is a gutsy call from trainer roachdale. Without a prayer, perhaps the track will take side bets on her finishing ahead of fellow three year old Greensleeves. I’m not doubting her abilities as she has shown marked improvements and with a soft field after the top three she may battle for a 5th-7th place. She could actually have a chance against others her own age. None here today though.
PP8 10/1 SAINT THUNDER
(THUNDER GULCH x SAINT BALLADO x MILL REEF)
Trainer: con10der3
Making a move from an allowance runner to graded stakes contender, Saint Thunder has a duel personality. Looking back at her past performances, you have no idea which horse is going to show up at the race. In just her last few races she has posted speed ratings of 92, 101, 81, 94, 86, 101, 103. Those last two races have netted her the win but I’m not sure if the move to graded company is the right move. She does have one non-graded win which she won last year but this race seems to set up nicely to the top three favorites and it would take a career best to upset them today.
PP9 12/1 PRINCESS JENNAH
(WOODMAN x STORM CAT x GONE WEST)
J Caves ( 302 – 63 – 47 – 33 – 21% )
Trainer: shangrila2
Nicely bred, Princess Jennah has had some very nice finishes this year in regular stake events but as with so many others today, she may have picked the wrong race to make her graded debut. Although she’s winless in stakes events she manages to show just enough to menace with the leaders and may surprise by hitting the board if the favorites have a bad race or take the competition lightly. She’ll try to stalk the pace but more than like will have to settle with winning the “Best of the rest”.
PP10 16/1 GRANNY’S GIRL
(STORM CAT x RAHY x
J White ( 313 – 68 – 61 – 52 – 22% )
Trainer: carolover
Breaking from post number 10, daughter of Storm Cat Granny’s Girl is still looking for a return to glory. Royally bred, she looked like she had the makings of a great one but ran only one time in 2004 as she posted a 117 speed rating. Trainer carolover then took a year off from the sport before returning but found the going hard even though her mare has shown some nicely ran races. You look at her and she just screams potential but we’re all waiting to see if she still has what it takes to take on the best or if she should now be an allowance runner.
PP11 8/1 CRAFTY STATUS
(CRAFTY PROSPECTOR x A.P. INDY x ALYDAR)
F Gossett ( 317 – 70 – 56 – 45 – 22% )
Trainer: gipper
$30,000…that’s what trainer gipper paid for Crafty Status at the end of last year as he snatched her out of the claming ranks. Her next three starts netted three wins including a stakes victory in The Willowbay Special –Stk. Full of run, she was pointed last time out to the Boquet o’ Daisies Stakes G-3 and she lead the entire race until the final quarter mile as the cavalry charge was sounded and she finished a disappointing 6th. While she did manage to put up some strong speed ratings in that race she didn’t come close to facing the level of competition that she faces today. However, she may still have something to say about that and as I mentioned earlier, I like developing four year olds this time of year. There is no telling how many potential stake winners are tossed away in the auction as a two or even three year old. Here’s a prime example.
PP12 8/1 DOOMSDAY JESUS(IRE)
(BLACK TIE AFFAIR(IRE) x LYPHARD x ALLEGED)
V Elliott ( 334 – 67 – 54 – 54 – 20% )
Trainer: zwango1
Breaking from the outside post, Doomsday Jesus(IRE) has gone a long time without a win. In fact, you have to all the way back to June 18th of 2005 in an ALW-12400NW4L to find the last time she came out on top. Although she has run consistent times rating in the high 90’s, without even a non-graded win to her record you just can’t place too much hope here. She is consistent enough though to fit for a minor part of the purse and if one of the three favorites falter she may even steal 3rd. She’s worth a try on the back end of your trifecta ticket.
Maverick’s Picks:
#4 to Win
Or
Tri-Wheel: 4 / 5,6 / 2,3,5,6,8,9,11,12