There was something in the air that night, stars are bright in the Fedirico…

With two weeks remaining before the start of the Sim Triple Crown (and also, with precious little left in the universe to parody after last week in Florida), it is time to refine our focus back onto the sophomore silly season.  In Maryland this week, a field of thirteen is gathering for the Grade II Fedirico Stakes, a $200,000, nine-furlong challenge for three-year-olds. 

At this particular stage in the three-year-old silly season, the Bluegrass Derby field typically is set in stone.  Most of the main contenders in the top 20 have had their final starts before the Bluegrass Derby, and those who are on the fence about making the trip two weeks hence are about to decide whether or not they want to try a mile-and-a-quarter at this time.  This weekend, there are two potential Derby runners who are praying that someone changes their minds about running in Kentucky, while also hoping their own charges run well enough to boost their ranking enough to guarantee a spot in the field in a fortnight.  For the connections of Crafty Cyclone, ranked #30, and Dark Princes, #22, this race is fraught with fear, dread, and potential exhilaration.  It is also fraught with a couple of late-developing threats that hope to establish themselves on the scene as future threats.  The good news is that the Middle Jewel is always a great backup plan in four weeks, but the leading contenders hope to raise their profiles on the main stage before then.

The field:

Intergalactic [Aptitude x Unbridled], trained by eddie72.  He’s 3-for-5 with a pair of stakes wins, with an impressive victory in a Pennsylvania stakes last out at the nine-and-a-half furlongs of the Middle Jewel.  This rapidly-developing colt should like to come from well out of it late, and the nine-furlongs here should fit him like a velvet glove.  He’s very well-bred to become a distance horse, he’s well-rested for this (a five-week layoff) and has all the signs of possibly becoming a summer sophomore star.  His last-out fig of 92 is solid, if not best, and he figures to be in the thick of it all late.

Elusive Infinity [Elusive Quality-Otto Infinity, by Danehill], trained by 2die4.  He’s been a busy campaigner, with eleven starts under his belt.  He comes up just a little shy on performance, with only two wins, but he’s hit the board six times, so he can be consistent.  He came much too late in the Corkscrew, finishing a belated fourth and earning a 92 for the stretch kick.  He also was a hard-charging second in the Grade III Myocardial Infarction three back, earning a career-high 94.  He should like to sit mid-pack and wait for the last half-mile before beginning to move, though he can sit near the lead and aid in the pace scenario, yet despite the solid results in graded company, he seems a bit behind a developmental curve with some of these.  He’ll be in the mix, but seems to have tailed off somewhat in recent times.

Tapit From Behind [Tapit-Kaladan Too(IRE), by El Prado(IRE)], trained by stormchase.  He’s a veteran, even for a three-year-old this time of year, with thirteen starts under his belt (yet that’s not even the most in this field!), but he has been better at 2 than at 3 thus far.  Eighth last out overseas in the Turf Demon (on dirt), his best ’06 result was a season-debuting win in a Missouri stakes race where he came strongly from off the pace to win at eight-and-a-half furlongs.  This stretch-runner was a stakes-winner at 2, and tries nine panels for the first time here.  The distance isn’t a question mark for him, but the step up in class could be, as he makes his graded debut here.  His late kick doesn’t appear to be as strong as some of the others here, though he’ll surely make a go of it late. 

Bourbon St. Blues(IRE) [Galileo(IRE) x Blushing Groom(FR)], trained by super10.  Here’s another lightly-raced horse that may not hit the Derby in two weeks, but the hope is that he could be a summer stud by the time the dog days are in full swing.  He’s 3-for-6 lifetime, and won a Mississippi stakes two back.  The super__ family thought enough of him to ship him in from California for this, off a minor flop in the apt-named The Talent Is There Stakes (a mild third that day).  With him, there’s a potential flaw, in that, while his numbers at this stage are solid (a 90 and a 92 in his last two starts), they don’t leap off the page just yet.  And that last try at nine furlongs, against listed competition, he struggled to make any inroads on the leaders late.  This means he either needs to warm up to the distance, needs to develop more before being a factor at this level, or nine furlongs just might not be a distance he truly wants.  While the first two options seem more likely, the latter might actually be closer to the truth at present.

Josheba [Alysheba-Lady Jo Ann, by Saint Ballado], trained by coroner.  In case you were waiting for it, here’s your first potential pace influence.  This latecomer to the party is starting to impress, with a front-running win in an Upper New York allowance that netted a 97 fig last out.  And that came off an Equinics race in Vermont where he pressed the pace and faded, but remained a decent seventh among twenty top sophomores.  The race comes up light on early speed, so the early fractions should be his, and a repeat of that allowance could give him a head-start on the field.  There doesn’t figure to be a lot of pressure, either, so the question becomes, “Can he stay the distance on the lead, with the fleet-hooved closers coming at him late?”  The 97 isn’t the best last-out speed figure, but it’s still quite impressive for a NW2L, and if it’s not just a belated turf-to-dirt bounce, he should be a formidable pace dictator.

Genocide Junkies [Louis Quatorze x Valid Appeal], trained by sdmf1.  Here’s a hard-luck horse for ya.  This colt has been injured twice within four starts dating back to last fall, earning a speed fig of 6 in an allowance two back, and a 13 in a restricted allowance four back.  But each time, he’s bounced back hard: after the first injury, he returned to win his maiden with a 90 off a thirteen-week layoff, and after the last one, he was a fast-closing third in a NW2L, earning a 93 off a nine-week layoff.  He’s certainly well-rested, and comes back harder than before when fresh, but he makes an open-stakes debut in a tough Grade II affair featuring some highly talented colts, and with his trend towards needing a long recuperative period every other start fresh in the past performances, it raises a few red flags.  He hasn’t been too far away from the lead each time out, and should make his own late run here, but it certainly looks to be too much, too soon for this colt in this spot.

Joe’s Boy [Silver Ghost-Their Fires, by Wavering Monarch], trained by epsom.  He’s been busy this spring, with five starts under his belt already in 2006.  And he’s done well for himself, winning a leg of the USA Vs The Rest Of The World Challenge two back.  But his test for class was the Equinics in February, and that resulted in a twelth, where he was always outrun.  He did earn a second to start the year in an Ascot stakes, coming from off the pace to get there, but his abilities at this distance fall under strict scrutiny, and based on his recent form, it might be asking a bit much here coming off a couple of mile allowances (while he won that restricted allowance two back, he lacked the needed late response late last out).

Azroc Red N Yellow [Green Desert x Diesis(GB)], trained by cjt.  Another late bloomer, this colt initially looked like a solid grass horse, but he has developed into a very good sophomore on dirt.  He was third last out in the Corkscrew, which probably looks a little better on paper than in practice, as he was gaining only nominal ground on the winner late and every time he started to close, someone else knocked the wind out of him.  He can appreciate these middle distances, as he won a Kentucky race at the end of 2005, but nine furlongs remains a question mark for his abilities.  The 93 in the Corkscrew is a solid number for him, and he did manage to close two back in a mile-and-a-sixteenth stakes in Iowa, but at the graded level, it remains to be seen if he can effectively close the deal going this distance.

Tricky Nate [Tiznow-Oh Boy Linda, by Regal Classic], trained by kneeboot.  I know some tricky Nates in my time, but I don’t know a lot about this newcomer, with just four starts in his career, all coming this year.  He’s grown fond of routes in a hurry, with a game fourth last out at this distance, which followed up a entry-level allowance win going seven-and-a-half furlongs.  That allowance win earned a 90, and the follow-up allowance got him a fig of 91, but there are just way too many unknowns about him at this level to recommend.  It should be said, though, that his ever-improving numbers keep him a factor among these, and he should be coming from off the pace in here.  It’s ambitious placement, and the biggest journeys do have to start somewhere.

Dark Princes [Empire Maker x Wild Again], trained by super27.  This colt is the main focus here, as he’s currently on the outside looking in, in terms of the division rankings—#22 won’t get you into a field of twenty without there being some defections to guarantee your inclusion.  Maybe his name should have been Alwaysabridesmaid—as in, “…never a bride”; he has an almost-terminal case of seconditis.  He was a hard-charging second in the Grade II Easy Goer last out (earning him a strong 96 fig), had a tantalizing near-miss second in the Equinics (a strong 102, the best overall number in the field), and was a head short in his season debut in Maine (a 95), but he hasn’t won a race since last October.  Is this the time for him?  As pointed out in the Bluegrass Derby Watch, he’ll need to hit the board to guarantee a spot in the Derby in two weeks.  A good closing kick in this field should get him what he needs, but even with that stretch drive putting him in good stead, there’s the matter of getting the distance.  He’s not been able to step it up going nine furlongs (he was a belated fourth his only try in Dubai two back), and the series of near-misses when he’s constantly done well enough at this high level to get up to #22 can’t help but lead on to believe that he might not want to be a part of anything being nine furlongs.  Nevertheless, among these, the stage is set for him to get the points and cash needed to cement a spot in the Derby.

Crafty Cyclone [Crafty Prospector x Gone West], trained by ydracing.  This is the other headliner, and this colt is another one who conceivably could be left on the outside looking in of the Derby picture, if that’s been on the minds of his connections.  Ranked #30, he’ll likely need a lot of help to get him into any of the Sim Triple Crown events, and a strong performance here ain’t gonna hurt, either.  He came from way out of the action to be fifth in the Grade I Green Monkey last out; his solid closing dash got him a 95 fig.  His best efforts came on a graded level last year, when he was twice graded-placed as a juvenile.  The pedigree doesn’t immediately suggest distance, although Gone West could stay a distance of ground, and Crafty Prospectors are considered to be solid sires of middle-distance horses, but this colt and his come-from-nowhere late run are well-suited to the distance.  He won the Six Index two back while maintaining closer contact with the field; a repeat of that is not terribly likely with the lack of early pressure expected, but his long strides in the lane make him a serious factor among these three-year-olds, and he’s the immediate main foe of Dark Princes.

Lunar Cleansing [Awesome Again-High Voltage(IRE), by Giant’s Causeway], trained by studkenny2.  This colt possesses the best last-out fig, with a 100 while a belated second in the Grade II South Bronx.  A solid, well-bred colt, he began his career making waves as a two-year-old turf sprinter, with debuting figs in the 80s and low-90s.  Upon moving to the dirt, however, he’s exploded, in his own fashion; he won a Malaysian sprint, and was second in an Ireland stakes before just missing in the South Bronx.  He’s bred for a distance of ground, but alas, this is his first try beyond seven furlongs.  I know I’m still smarting from a colt of mine who should vast potential as a sprinter, but who ended up last in the 2005 Corkscrew in his first attempt beyond a mile, a decision which I regret, and from which my horse hasn’t quite been the same since.  It’s a risky venture to stretch a sprinter out to a route, particularly against graded foes, but this horse has the pedigree to stay, and should on paper handle the extra quarter-mile without a hassle.  He’s likely to sit pretty close to the pace, if almost by default, and looks to be in position to make a stand in the stretch.  He’s clearly talented, having broken the century mark already this year, and should be able to make a name for himself as a long sprinter if all else fails.  Here, it’s tough to call—there are better closing runs, but his pedigree and tactical abilities might give him a certain advantage in a race with just one main speed threat.

Japans Last Hope(JPN) [Eishin Masamune(JPN) x Seattle Sleet], trained by lodog20.  The most experienced horse by far in the field, with this being his sixteenth start, this colt seeks his eighth career win from the outside post.  An excellent turf sprinter, he tries the dirt for the first time since making his debut last April, and won the Grade III Alec And Stephen three back, making a winning run from the top of the stretch.  However, to expect this horse to come right out and do well in his first dirt race in a year, and first time on dirt going over five furlongs, is also a stretch.  Here’s why: the colt has had his issues on grass when attempting to extend himself over six-and-a-half furlongs.  He was a no-factor ninth in the All Your Base Are Belong To Us two back at a mile-and-an-eighth (this race’s distance), and played a hand in the early pace when fading to eleventh in last fall’s GSR Diamond.  His grass numbers have been good in sprints, too, with his Alec And Stephen win garnering a 94 as a high point.  His remaining grass numbers have been pretty decent, but nothing really stands out.  While the turf-to-dirt angle is a good training tool to get a horse recharged, and while it’s a good handicapping tool, it’s a big question mark when trying to spark your horse in a Grade II.  If there is a role for this colt in this field, it will likely be as a stalker, hoping to keep expected early leader Josheba on something of a taut rein.  Whether this horse will get the requisite surface-switch bounce is an open question to be answered soon enough.

My selections:

1. Crafty Cyclone
2. Intergalactic
3. Dark Princes
4. Elusive Infinity
5. Lunar Cleansing

Good luck, and happy racing!