Seven Turfers Look to Put Long in Longchamp
Saturday will be a bettors delight at Longchamp as anyone who can figure out who to bet in the Fussy Storm Special (Listed, Two Miles on Turf, All 4yo+) should be given a crystal ball, a shimmering purple hat, and a tent at the Caligari Carnival. Seven older males will go postward with only five combined wins showing on their past performances. The breakdown on those wins is one stakes (by a nose), two allowances, an MSW, and a claimer. Not exactly the stuff of champions. That being said, you have to love the all-out endurance test that a two-mile affair offers. Let’s take a look at the competitors!
1) PJ Good Friday, 4yo colt, 13/1, P Knapp (13%), War Chant x Sadler’s Wells x Forty Niner, trained by playshack
Easily the shortest horse on experience in the field, this colt has only been to the post five times. Playshack made no bones about the types of races he wanted to see his charge run in as he debuted going nine furlongs on the lawn. He finished second in his first start, then easily broke his maiden with an 85 speed figure when stretched out to ten furlongs for his second start. After subpar allowance efforts at a mile and 14 furlongs, he ran a very game second last time out in another 14 furlong allowance, losing by a ¼-length with an 82 speed figure. He looks a bit outmatched this weekend as he’s still eligible for NW1x, and I’d like to see him try the dirt if he fails to fire here.
2) Pedrometer, 4yo colt, 4/1, D Coulthard (6%), Sakhee x
You’d have to go nine races back to find the last time this son of Arc-winner Sakhee found the winner’s circle, and that victory came on the dirt. He’s winless in four turf attempts, but last time out he did run a 94 speed figure in a ten furlong allowance, a number that stacks up well with this group. Class is the question with this one, as he’s never hit the board in three stakes attempts. Hard to see him reversing that trend this week, although it is his first turf stakes try, so who knows.
3) Thunder, 4yo colt, 3/1, H Wood (4%), War Chant x
Another colt who needs to find some momentum as he’s lost nine of his last ten races. He did try this surface and distance three races back finishing third in an allowance with a 93 speed figure. In his last effort he finished second with a nice 96 speed figure in a 13 furlong stakes race. Like Pedrometer, his speed figures are competitive with this group but class is the pertinent question as he’s finished off the board in his only two stakes tries.
4) Prospector, 6yo horse, 3/1,
An earner of more than 400k lifetime, this grizzled warrior has the most back class of any horse in the field. He won three turf stakes in 2004 and is the only horse going postward that shows a stakes win in the last eight races. The problem is that he’s lost each of his last four races (all stakes) by 12+ lengths. His most recent loss was off a 14-week layoff, so titleist obviously gave him a break in hopes of recharging his batteries for one more go around. He does look to be the controlling speed in the race and despite his recent woes may be the one to catch.
5) Rainbow Mist, 6yo horse, 7/1, B Wu (20%), Rainbow Quest x Irish River(Fr) x Alydar, trained by Pegasus
Bred through and through to excel at a distance of ground, this embattled veteran has racked up more than 500k in earnings and boasts three stakes victories to his resume. But as with the rest of this field, his problem is recent form as he hasn’t emerged victorious in ten starts. Eight races back he did finish second in a G1 going 14 furlongs and he’s coming off a decent second in a 14 furlong listed stakes with a 94 speed figure. That combination of speed and class probably marks him as the one to beat this weekend, and expect to see him flying at the leaders in the final four furlongs.
6) Rivado, 4yo colt, 3/1, W Mercy (8%), El Prado(Ire) x Irish River(Fr) x Mill Reef, trained by bobo
Four races into this colt’s career I was leading the charge to coronate him as the Sim’s next great long turf champion. After finishing second in his debut going nine furlong on the lawn, he proceeded to annihilate the competition in his next two starts, breaking his maiden at a mile and then demolishing a ten furlong allowance race by two lengths with a sickening 100 speed figure. He followed that effort up with a stakes win going 9.5 furlongs and had me running to the windows hand over fist to place a future wager on him for the Derby de English. He was distanced next time out in the G1 Adelaide Derby and his record since is 17 (3 3 2) with zero stakes wins. So what happened? It appears that either he was injured in the
7) Sky Admiral, 5yo horse, 5/1, J Ventura (17%), Sky Classic x High Kicker x In Excess(Ire), trained by pcchargers
An astute claim by pcchargers, this horse rewarded its new trainer with a second-place stakes finish last time out going 14 furlongs on the turf with a nice 93 speed figure. He shows decent back class with four in-the-money finishes in six stakes tries, and is a very hard knocking horse. His running style is well-suited to the race as he likes to sit mid-pack and move about halfway through. There is a fair amount of speed entered and he should get first crack at them. At 5/1 this horse looks to be a solid value play and could be in line for his first stakes victory.
Predictions
1) Rainbow Mist’s speed/class combo should be enough to defeat this mediocre field
2) Sky Admiral has a chance to pull the rare claim/stakes double
3) Prospector should lead this race for a while but might not have the gas to win