Even Field Tackles Norwegian Sprint

The Doc’s Blade Memorial Stakes is the regular stakes race set down for Norway this weekend. A seven and a half furlong turf sprint for older horses, it will be conducted on a firm track and is worth $55,000. Doc’s Blade was raced by luckyhobo and had a career consisting of just six starts. In those starts he won 82,000 dollars and was a turf sprint stakes winner.

This week’s event looks to be very even, as a quick glance at the field shows two equal favourites at 4/1, while the rank outsider is a 23/1 chance with plenty of good form coming into this race.

We’ll work our way through the field:

Sporting Quixote has drawn the coveted inside barrier.  A fine pickup from the claiming ranks just over seven months ago, this five year old has been off the scene for the past three months, and must have shown plenty on the training track recently, as thefred has chosen to bring him straight back for his second attempt at black type racing, following a handy fourth of seven at his final run before the spell. thefred is the fourth owner of this cheaply bred Safron Walden / Dawn Quixote / Sportin Life horse, who has already more than repaid the 10k claiming price. Since changing hands he’s had five runs for 2 allowance wins, two thirds and a stakes fourth. His times are good enough to suggest he’s a solid chance this weekend

Barrier stall 2 has been reserved for Kid Fabulous, a scratch homebred (Awesome Again / Seeking the Gold / Danzig) raced by his breeder, socko, throughout his four year, forty one start career which has yielded ten wins and more than $810,000. A versatile six year old, he showed ability on the dirt as a two year old before switching to the grass at three and moving up another notch. His career highlights were consecutive Grade 2 victories over the mile as a late four year old, since when he’s continued to pay his way without revisiting those heights. Allowance wins to end his five year old season, and to begin 2006 showed that he’s not done yet. His third of fourteen, returning a triple digit speed rating at his most recent outing proves he’s still a force to be reckoned with at this level.

Wile Coyote is due to line up at number 3. This lightly raced, four year old carries the longest starting price into this, but his form indicates that that he may well have sneaked in under the radar. Racing in the high profile super22 stable, and bred from scratch using Danzig / Blushing Groom / Bold Lad, Wile Coyote has been to the races just eight times, earning top three finishes on seven of those occasions, winning three and banking over $100,000. This is his first tilt at black type racing, and he’s yet to register a triple digit speed figure, but he’s been well handled to date, has graduated stylishly through the allowance ranks, and looks certain to measure up to stakes racing

Out on Bail, from gate 4, is joint favourite in the early markets. Another scratch bred, he began his career on the dirt, where he was very successful (five wins from 10) before switching to the grass to pursue the riches available in the black type events. His stakes record reads two wins, three seconds and a third from eight tries, the only ‘failure’ being a seventh of twenty in the Grade 1 Equinics Dick Francis. Breeder trainer tflyer used E Dubai / Pine Bluff / Dr Fager to create Out on Bail, and this successful breeding has added more than $230,000 to the trainer’s bank account to date. Top jockey H.Knott will look to add more to the kitty this weekend.

King of Hearts jumps from 5, and is the elder statesman of the field, at seven years of age. Bred by kelso he’s a son of Louis Quatorze from his lightly raced (1 from 7) Mining / Roberto mare, Canadian Autumn. King of Hearts has been a solid contributor to his trainer’s coffers through six seasons of racing, and although he hasn’t graced the winners circle since late 2004, he regularly brings home minor cheques. He hasn’t been well served in the jockey lottery and although yet another solid run is likely, he’ll need a return to the form of a couple of years ago if he’s to collect the biggest slice of the cake in this event.

Red Sharpie jumps from 6, as he looks to collect win number nine at his twenty second start. Raced exclusively by fireguy since being bred by bigskyfarm, Red Sharpie, is a four year old son of Red Ransom. He’s clearly the best of three offspring from the Nureyev / Robellino mare Small Story, herself a minor winner of two from 27. Red Sharpie won his first two starts and two, before graduating to black type racing, where he has remained for all but one of his subsequent 19 starts. With five stakes wins on the CV already, he commands instant respect every time he ventures to the track. J. Ruckreigel, riding at 20%, is sure to give this one every chance, and the 9/1 on offer looks overly generous.

Cannon In D shares the top line of betting and will alight from barrier 7. cream spared no expense when deciding to use Sadler’s Wells / Blushing Groom / Secretariat for this breeding, and has been well rewarded for doing so. To date Cannon in D has finished on the podium in three quarters of his runs, and is winning at a rate of 40% (8 from 20). The five year old has three stakes wins and four seconds at this level, including his last start close up finish behind Jef City Desert in a full field in Japan three weeks ago. He’s been a model of consistency, finishing first or second in twelve of his last fourteen appearances, the two lower results both coming against graded opposition. His formline is spot on for this type of racing, and he’s certain to be a major contender once again.

Super Sumo jumps from gate 8. Since being claimed from breeder dundey3 just six starts ago, he’s had three owner trainers, two of whom retained the horse for just a single start. dirtydozen, however has clearly identified greater potential than claimers in the 5 year old son of Quick Cut / Harry’s Orange (Victory Gallop / The Irish Lord). After a couple of impressive starter allowance victories, one of which returned a triple digit speed rating, dirtydozen upped the ante to an open allowance, where he ran third, beaten a head in a tight photo in Queensland at his latest run. It’s a big jump from claimers to stakes, but unlike many who attempt it, Super Sumo has the recent form to justify his place in this field.

Gate 9 sees Aningan, the only filly taking on the boys here this week. Bred from scratch by current owner / trainer scout3, the lightly raced daughter of Mohave Moon / Eskimo / Santiago Peak has hit a purple patch of form in her last four outings. A maiden winner of her second start, she then went missing in her next four. Dropped back to restricted allowances, she regained confidence with a win and two seconds before stepping up once again to black type racing. More mature, she ran a creditable second of eight, beaten just a length, in a Taiwan stakes four weeks ago. Registering a triple digit speed figure that day, she needs only to repeat that form to have a real chance in this, her eleventh career run.

Gate 10 is to be the starting position for Dieniniski, a model of consistency bred, trained and owned by dixon. A four year old scratch bred son of Diesis / Niniski / High Line, Dieniniski has collected a cheque at each of his last ten visits to the races, and has failed to at least cover expenses in only four of his 27 career starts. With the majority of his racing having been at allowance level, he’s been given plenty of time to mature before venturing into the black type ranks. Three recent stakes starts have resulted in two thirds and a fifth, and it seems likely that the first black type victory is just around the corner. The major obstacle this weekend could be his less than impressive sprint record (2 thirds from 6 tries), but sprinting doesn’t get any longer than this, and he’s racing in great heart at the moment.

In gate 11 we have Jef City Desert from the venezuela stable. 2006 has started well for this five year old, with 2 wins from his three runs thus far. He’s the only runner coming into this with a black type victory at his most recent outing, having beaten home both pre-race favourites, Cannon in D and Out on Bail in Japan three weeks ago. Jef City Desert was bred from scratch by ideal, using Carson City / Green Desert / Storm Cat. Raced by his breeder for his first nine starts he was then acquired by current owner / trainer venezuela, who has crafted a genuine stakes performer over the last couple of seasons. Finding his best form from the beginning of his four year old season, he worked through the allowance restrictions to graduate to stakes racing and he lines up here with a genuine chance to maintain his most recent form.

Polish Proverb will jump from gate 12. A lightly raced four year old, with an impressive strike rate of five wins from fifteen starts, he gets his chance to add his name to the stakewinners club list. Bred by owner / trainer timjbehr, Polish Proverb is a son of the very handy broodmare Serpentine Wingo. A timjbehr ‘exclusive’, Sepentine Wingo (Lost Code / Native Royalty) has produced four offspring, all winners, including stakes winner Cereal Killer, who in turn produced Bolt from the Blue, who extends the successful dynasty in the timjbehr stable. Polish Proverb is a son of Danzig who surprisingly did not show much in his first four dirt starts. Switched to the grass, he has graduated impressively through the allowance ranks, and although he failed in a couple of stakes tries towards the end of 2005, he’s performed well enough recently to be regarded as a real chance to make the grade this time around.

Summary: I’m not going to discount the chances of any of the runners here, as they all have some sort of chance in a very open field. Forced to make some sort of predictions, I’m tipping Cannon in D, simply because he’s forgotten how to run a bad race (I’d kill for one as consistent). Red Sharpie has the sprint record on the board, with four wins and two seconds from six, so a top two finish looks highly possible again, and at 9/1 he’s a great betting proposition. Also from a betting perspective, I think the roughie at 23/1 is way over the odds, so I’m putting in Wile Coyote for third. Regardless of the final result, it would be impossible to describe any scenario as a boilover, as this is a top notch field with any number of possible outcomes.

The bookies like:

            4/1 – Out on Bail, Canon In D

            6/1 – Dieniniski

            8/1 – Jef City Desert, Polish Proverb

The computer likes:

            Out on Bail – 76

            Red Sharpie – 147

            Canon In D – 148

            Aningan – 183 – Female Ranking

            Jef City Desert – 196

Footnote: Regrettably, I’ll be unable to provide a recap on this event, as I’m leaving on holiday before the races are run. I look forward to returning to BTB writing in 4 or 5 weeks time