The Arkansas Juvenile (G2)
We find ourselves in Arkansas this week for ‘The Arkansas Juvenile Grade II.’ The Juvenile draws one heck of a field of three year olds as the three year old racing season starts to heat up. You could roll the dice or throw a dart and have a better chance of handicapping this one, folks. Tough, tough call today. This Grade II will cover a mile and one eighth on the fast dirt for a purse of $275,000. Well, give the kid a sucker and let’s get to it.
(PP1 – 12/1) Italian Ice(IRE), of the Nathndtroi stable, is a fun horse to start with today. This 3 year old cold has won both of his routes he has run in so far. Not only were they the first distance races of his career, they were also his first two races of his 3 year old season. This Street Cry(IRE)X Seeking The Gold X Alysheba colt followed up his allowance win in his 3 year old debut with his first stakes win LTO, firing a 96 SP # in the stakes victory at this distance. Italian Ice(IRE) is on an early roll in his 3 year old season and has proven he can handle the distance. The only question is, can he handle the company? This is his first time against Graded Stakes company. He could be a fun one to watch today.
(PP2 – 10/1) The Ratical T(IRE), of the Grimreaper stable, is a 3 year old colt that was bred to run a route. This Theatrical(IRE) X Well Decorated X Green Dancer colt has never run a sprint or on the grass. He has won only 1 of 5 career races, but he has hit the board in 4 of those 5 and just missed in his LTO with a 6th place finish in his first venture into Graded Stakes company. The Ratical T(IRE) hit a nice groove once he faced off against the tough company in Kentucky two races back as he has fired consecutive 93 SP #s in his last two races. He has proven he can handle the distance the only thing he has yet to prove is that he belongs with this class of runners.
(PP3 – 10/1) Awesome Lad, of the Seekingwin stable, is a very good allowance 3 year old colt but has yet to prove himself against Stakes company. This Awesome Again X Grand Slam X A.P. Indy colt’s best finish in lower level Stakes company was a 2nd place finish, but that was as a 2 year old. Awesome Lad looks like he prefers the mile and a sixteenth distance since that is where he has fired over a 90 SP # in both of his races at that distance. Although he has finished in the top three spots in 4 of 7 races, he has yet to prove himself worthy of Graded Stakes company. Not a factor today unless he runs the race of his career.
(PP4 – 9/1) Super Coverup, of the Taleofcat9 stable, is another dominant 3 year old sprinter. This Squirtle Squirt X Forestry X Avatar colt has won 4 of 6 sprints and has hit the board in every single one of those six races. Ok, so you are thinking he is running a race he is not settled into at this stage of his career. Well, not so fast. If you throw out the turf races, Super Coverup has improved his SP # every time on the dirt, no matter the distance. The only blemish was his LTO, but you can throw that one out, too, because it was on an off track. He has won both dirt Stakes races on a fast track, including his career best in the Afleet Alex Stakes two races back where he fired a huge 95 SP #. He didn’t fare as well in his LTO on a good dirt surface in (G2) company, but he did finish up in 6th. If you like a horse on the way up, this could make another interesting choice in the Juvenile today.
(PP5 – 11/1) Bruski, of the Kak62farm stable, is a 3 year old colt trying to find his 2 year old form. This Milwaukee Brew X Nureyev X Fappiano entry holds the # 68 Dirt Classic ranking with 32 stakes points earned. Bruski has only run one race this year, the Equinics (G1) where he ran a mile and finished up near the back of the pack. The Equinics race was a tough assignment in his first race as a 3 year old since he had never run against Graded Stakes company before. Today, he steps down to (G2) company but his assignment is still pretty tough. He has won 3 of 5 routes and placed in another of those races. In his final 3 races as a 2 year old he consistently fired in the 90 SP #s with a win and two 2nd place finishes. Bruski is clearly trying to regain his form from a year ago and if he does he could be a dark horse in today’s race.
(PP6 – 14/1) Rainbow Phyl, of the Sam stable, has to be the most diverse colt in the field. This Rainbow Quest X Danzig X Storm Cat colt has hit the board in 3 of 4 races both in sprints and routes. He has also hit the board in 4 of 6 races on the grass and in both races on the dirt. He is very versatile, but can he put it together in this one today is the question. Rainbow Phyl has improved his SP # steadily with every subsequent trip to the track with the exception of his HUGE step up in his LTO where he made the jump from lower level Stakes races to the Equinics (G1). One thing in his defense in that Equinics race was that it was on an off track and his first of his career, although he did end up with a 6th place impressive finish in that sort of company. Technically, Rainbow Phyl is dropping down in company today, but so are some of the others in today’s Juvenile. He will have to continue to improve on the dirt and show he belongs in Graded company to factor today. He could be in over his head or he could be a top five finisher today. Too tough a field to call.
(PP7 – 21/1) Sky Cat Ted, of the Tempstable stable, is the morning line long shot of the race. This is the only colt in the race to have had an auction tag around his neck as the Tempstable signed off on a $3 million dollar check for him late in his 2 year old season. This Karensky X Hannibal Cat X Gone West colt sure made the Tempstable look like a genius in his LTO as he won The Doc’s Slew(IRE) Special with a 90 SP # win. He will need to continue on that form and actually improve upon it as he makes his first attempt at this distance and his first attempt against this caliber of company. It would take one heck’uva race to pull this one out. I think he needs more time to mature, but Sky Cat Ted could be one to watch in the future.
(PP8 – 17/1) The Great Wells, of the Lodog20 stable, is another colt on the rise if you can read between the lines. This Albert The Great X Forest Wildcat X Sadler’s Wells colt has only won 1 of 9 routes, but has hit the board in 6 of those 9 races. His SP #s have steadily improved with each race if you throw out the off-track races, which The Great Wells does not fare as well as on a fast track. His SP #s aren’t anything special when compared to some of the other entries in the race today, so my expectation is that he will need some more time to hone his craft before he is able to compete at this level. Take that with a grain of salt, however, as The Great Wells finished 2nd in his first (G2) race two races back. Today is a fast track so this could be a grinder who could be there at the end.
(PP9 – 6/1) Sagatector(FR), of the Ruby9 stable, is the second choice in the race according to the morning line odds. This Sagamix(FR) X Mr. Prospector X Silent Screen colt has won 2 of 5 routes and hit the board in 3 of those 5 races. Sagatector(FR) can fire in the high 90 SP #s in a distance race but so far has only done so at distances shorter than nine furlongs. In his only race at this distance, Sagatector(FR) fired an 84 SP #, but that was his first race as a 3 year old when he finished up in 5th place in a small lower level Stakes race. He has run one Graded Stakes race two races back in the Giant Slayer Classic (G3) where he fired a huge 98 SP # but had to settle for a 4th place finish. If Sagatector(FR) runs as he has in his last two races he could be there in the mix, but he is still a question mark at this distance and in this level of company to warrant being the second choice in the race.
(PP10 – 13/1) Awesome Dane, of the Ads2 stable, is a lightly raced 3 year old colt with 3 career wins in 6 career races. This Awesome Again X Danehill X Forty Niner colt is currently ranked # 80 in the Dirt Classic category for 3 year olds with 29 stakes points. In his 2 year old season, you could take it to the bank that he would fire a 90 SP # in his race, the only question was how would he finish with that kind of a run. Awesome Dane has only run one race as a 3 year old and it was a tough assignment as he squared off in the Equinics (G1) going 1 ½ furlongs farther than he had ever run before in his career. He looks to bounce back today against a tough field. In order to be competitive he will need to prove he can get the distance and handle Graded Stakes level company. I don’t expect him to factor today.
(PP11 – 18/1) Romanector(IRE), of the Borsato66 stable, has the second longest odds going into the Juvenile. This Romanov(IRE) X Mr. Prospector X Groom Dancer colt has only hit the board once in four career routes. Romanector(IRE) is in over his head. He could be a good allowance horse or a good sprinter since he has hit the board in 4 of 7 sprints with two of those being wins. He won’t be a factor today. Badly misplaced.
(PP12 – 8/1) Terrordega, of the Darylucla3 stable, is a sprinter running in a distance race. This Dixieland Band X A.P. Indy X Forty Niner colt has won 4 of 6 sprints with 5 of 6 in the money. At the same time, Terrordega has failed to hit the board in all four of his routes. He is currently the # 6 ranked Dirt Sprinter in the three year old category this year with 160 stakes points under his belt. He has proven he can fire in the 90 SP #s in the distance races, but his talent is in the shorter, speed races. Terrordega may collect a check in this field, but he belongs in sprints where he can truly dominate his age group.
(PP13 – 4/1) Magical Merlin, of the Lordbyron stable, is clearly the most talented and toughest colt in the race. This Smarty Jones X Sadler’s Wells X Wild Again colt has won 5 of his 8 races. Magical Merlin has earned over $616,000 in his short career. He is also going into this race as the # 3 ranked Dirt Classic three year old this year, earning 244 stakes points. Magical Merlin ran in last year’s Breeder’s Bowl Juvenile (G1) where he faltered for the first time in his career with a 9th place finish. He bounced back from that race, however, to win the Movieland Futurity (G1). As a three year old, Magical Merlin has a 3rd place finish in a (G3) and a 4th place finish in the Equinics (G1). Although Magical Merlin has never run 9F, anything less than a win in this field would be a severe disappointment for the Lordbyron stable.
(PP14 – 11/1) Cologne Niners, of the Manni138 stable, is my favorite classical colt on the rise. I love to see an entry like this on the card. This Forty Niner X Summer Squall X Bold Lad colt has won 3 of his 5 distance races, finishing in 2nd in one of the others. Cologne Niners has had some dips in his SP #s over his nine races, but it has been a steady climb nonetheless, culminating in his career high in his LTO where he fired a 97 SP # in his second consecutive Stakes win. This is his first venture into Graded company and his return to the 9F distance, where he didn’t fare as well as at the mile or mile and a sixteenth, so he has some question marks, but you have to love a colt on the rise.
Bigbaba