Chantilly Lace Could be Anyone’s Race
The Chantily Lace Cap Stakes
Grade III
One mile on Good Turf
$125,000
All Horses, 3 years old
”Chantilly Lace had a pretty face and a ponytail a hangin’ down” , so says the old song. We are at the Chantilly Lace Cap Stakes and we have 13 pony tails a hangin’ down This mile turf GIII Stakes race is very evenly matched so it should be a blast. Let’s take a look:
1 – STORM’S BUDA ODDS OWNER WIN% JOCKEY WIN% TOP SPEED AVG SPEED RANK 14/1 Kiwi 17.4% B.Fortune 9% 90.0 81.9 263
(DUBAI DESTINATION x STORM CAT x TANTHEM) Trainer Kiwi seemed to get this colt back on track with a nice effort last time out. That was in a half furlong shorter race though and he doesn’t seem to like the extra distance. It remains to be seen if the confidence factor will carry over. This will also be his first turn on an off track.
| 2 – COOLRUNNER | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/1 | Kona | 16.7% | B.Clayton | 6% | 91.5 | 80.3 | 203 |
(SAKHEE x DAYLAMI (IRE) x KINGMAMBO) The nice looking light grey filly is taking a stab at the boys here and is returning to the grass after a mediocre turn on the dirt last time out. She had a nice run on the turf at the Sunnybank Lady Stakes just before that and you wonder what trainer Kona has up his sleeve for his young filly. Probably just finding the best place for her but I sure would like to see her running against the ladies on grass to see what she could do there.
| 3 – PRIMETIME PIMP | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/1 | SS89 | 14.3% | D.Duper | 13% | 93.9 | 84.3 | 148 |
(FORTY NINER x DANZIG x SADLER’S WELLS) This well bred chestnut colt has been a little bit disappointing lately. He only has one win in the last five and that was last year. He is “0” for three this year although always in the top three. Hopefully SS89’s colt is getting used to the longer distances and jockey Duper can get him to go to another gear in the stretch where he seems to flounder. He has the genes, you just have to wonder if he has the heart.
| 4 – SPARE T(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/2 | super28 | 20.8% | M.Grunhard | 17% | 95.7 | 88.9 | 14 |
(THEATRICAL(IRE) x DANEHILL x MACHIAVELLIAN) I’m not sure whether it is SPARE T or SPARE TIRE but there is nothing spare about this nice colt. From his breeding to his training to his results he is a star. He’s run consistent mid 90 SPFs in the past three and just missed winning the DelPenn and Equinics races sandwiched around a Stakes win in the Blow Brook Memorial. He was bred for grass and this distance and has the capable hands of Grunhard on the reins. I don’t see any reason that his success shouldn’t continue here.
| 5 – EXPLOSIVE TOUCH | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | kibs | 12.5% | A.Peglow | 18% | 98.1 | 93.1 | 164 |
(DIAMOND x TOUCH GOLD x EXPLODENT) After spending the best part of his two year old campaign on the dirt, this colt moved to the grass and lived up to his name by exploding for four straight Stakes wins. “You just never know if you don’t try,” trainer Kibs was quoted as saying when asked about the switch. Now this colt is one to watch as a three year old and may take the next step here with his first graded race. .Jockey Peglow is hotter than he has been in his five years and would love to take this colt to the circle.
| 6 – SAM’S AROMA | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/1 | DeeLynette | 9.1% | K.McKnight | 4% | 87.8 | 84.3 | 201 |
(BURNING ROMA x SKY CLASSIC x MILL REEF) This pretty near white colt had a go at the dirt in his last outing with near disastrous results. He stumbled at the top of the stretch and faded badly. He will be happy back on the grass and needs to get back on form. It has been four races since he has really contended and DeeLynette is wondering what to try next with this one. It won’t help that jockey McKnight is having one of the worst seasons of his nine plus years in the saddle. Perhaps they can both get it turned around.
| 7 – TO DIE FOR(IRE) | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/1 | Zewango2 | 28.6% | M.Carrington | 13% | 89.7 | 82.4 | 115 |
(THEATRICAL(IRE) x SEEKING THE GOLD x SARATOGA SIX) Trainer Zewango2 is trying to show this Irish bred how to finish. He always gets out front but often just gets caught in the stretch. This will be his first time on an off track but the front running style may help him. Carrington and Zewango2 are hoping for a little more left in the tank at the end and a little bump in the colts speed.
| 8 – SILVERSHAFT | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/1 | Lenny6 | 20.0% | G.Johnson | 6% | 93.8 | 93.8 | 363 |
(MINESHAFT x DANZIG x SILVER DEPUTY) Another colt that has recently switched to grass with excellent results. He won his first and only race on the turf the last time out with a nice 93 SPF. It was only and Allowance race but translates well here. He seems to like the distance and Trainer Lenny6 is anxious to see another grass race from his colt. Jockey Johnson has been having a bit of an off year and would like to take this colt to a second win in a row.
| 9 – SKY LOW LOW | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | JK52 | 12.5% | J.Elizondo | 12% | 98.1 | 93.6 | 27 |
(SKY MESA x NORTHERN BABY x NASHUA) The weatherman says that we might get a few showers on Saturday and trainer JK52 started dancing when he heard that. This colt already has a win on his only off track and may give him the advantage he needs to come home in front. He doesn’t need much advantage as he has been running well with three wins and a second in his last four. He has pushed up toward the century mark with his speeds as well. Elizondo is in the irons and will probably put him on or near the lead to keep as much heavy stuff from splashing back on the colt. Might be a good choice here.
| 10 – EDGE OF DARKNESS | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/1 | Paceman2 | 20.0% | R.Kurtz | 9% | 93.2 | 81.6 | 364 |
(FANTASTIC LIGHT x ALLEGED x HAIL TO REASON) This colt jumped out of nowhere last time out with an unexpected longshot win. He slid out from the rail in the final turn and ran down the leaders in the stretch with his best SPF to date. Now you have to wonder if that was an aberration or if this colt has found himself. Trainer Paceman2 is surely voting for the latter and believes that his colt is just a late bloomer that is ready to run. This race should provide some of the answers to these questions.
| 11 – ROYAL WOODBINE | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/1 | Preakness | 13.6% | R.Ridenour | 14% | 95.5 | 89.0 | 165 |
(GREEN DESERT x SEEKING THE GOLD x OBLIGATO) Lightly raced colt looking for his first Stakes win. He won his maiden four back and has a couple of near misses since then. Trainer Preakness likes him just off the lead and that may work well with this crowd of front runners. He has yet to visit an off track and that is always interesting with the young ones. He has a capable jockey in the saddle and may surprise if the stars line up just right.
| 12 – TIDERUNNER | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/1 | Kingfish | 18.5% | Q.Redden | 8% | 89.3 | 84.6 | 34 |
(PULPIT x DIXIELAND BAND x SEATTLE SLEW) This young colt has six wins but they were almost all sprints and only one at this distance. He will be stretching it out for the first time in a while and you have to worry how that will turn out. He had a top three on his only off-track outing so that may bode well. Trainer Kingfish likes his horse on or near the lead so that may help if the track is loose too but tough to get to from the outside post. Lots of questions with this one and you can only hope to get answers on the track.
| 13 – FUZZY RAINBOW | ODDS | OWNER | WIN% | JOCKEY | WIN% | TOP SPEED | AVG SPEED | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/1 | Dundey7 | 12.0% | L.Ingersoll | 18% | 89.5 | 84.2 | 16 |
(RAINBOW QUEST x STORM CAT x DARSHAAN(ENG)) This capable colt drew the outside post and showed last time out in the Equinics that he’s not a big fan of either off tracks or traffic, both of which he will have to contend with here. Dundey7 has to be having second thoughts about placing his prized colt in this race with the way things have worked out. He has Ingersoll up though and he is one of the best jocks at the track. He should be able to get whatever this horse has to give. You have to wonder if it will be enough though.
Morning Line = 4-5-9-8-3-11-13
Yoss Tipsheet = 5-9-4-11
Paz Picks = 5-4-9-8
This should be a fun race because arguably every single horse really has a chance to win. Especially if you throw in the fact that there is going to be an off track. (the weatherman confided in me that the race will be run on Good Turf.) I like SILVERSHAFT to finish fourth. I would like to pick him higher but just can’t quite pull the trigger with just that one turf race. I believe that SKY LOW LOW will come in third. Once again I would like to place him higher but just don’t quite feel it. That leaves two tough horses for the top two spots. SPARE T will just fall short and allow EXPLOSIVE TOUCH to win his fifth in a row. Quite a streak and it should be quite a race as well. I can’t wait!
Good luck to all runners!
Paz