Mr. AP Cat BG dominates Waterford entries
By ITCH
Years ago at the real-life Old Waterford, there was this cute little jockey with a nice, curvy, well, she was nice and curvy.
Big doll-baby eyes, red curls, fair to say your West Virginia reporter was somewhat smitten. Didn’t matter a bit to me that she couldn’t ride a lick. Most of the time, she would break last, ride wide, and come home last. She won only once in a Blue Moon.
When she did, she would win by daylight, and almost always at long odds, because who in the heck is going to bet on a horse this little doll is riding, you know?
“What the heck,” I thought in my conniving 20-something brain.
This was my chance. I approached her one night, and I lied and said I really liked the way she was riding. (Although she looked good in the saddle, all right.) I said I noticed how when she would win, it would be by open lengths, and I suspected she had to know which one of her rides would have a chance. I gave her my phone number, and told her to call me when she thought she was going to win. In exchange, I would supply her with a $50 win ticket.
Big shock.
She never called.
Sometimes, plans just don’t work out. Such is the case so far in the West Virginia Stakes Competition, where contest trainers have fired mutliple bullets in the first few weeks of the contest, only to come up almost totally empty. Only Fatattack has been able to scrape together two points for a show, and it took a Breeders Bowl starter to get even that.
Not to worry. If one plan fails, hatch another. That’s what Bob123g is doing this week, as he brings the No. 10-ranked 3yo colt in the dirt sprint division to the Spa of the Appalachians for the $40,000, six-furlong MR. WEST CAP.
MR. AP CAT BG, out of Bob’s rgrg stable, is by far the leading light of the race. He comes in with 100 stakes points, many, many more, as in a whopping 70 more, than his nearest rival, who just happens to belong to his brother, Wassie. Mr. AP Cat BG’s dominance on paper is reflected in Drunken Morning Line Oddsmaker Charlie Hoop’s line, which puts him the 3-1 favorite in a full, 14-horse field. The next choice is five points higher, at 8-1. Certainly we have a deserving favorite here, having already won four non-graded stakes this level. He’s the top 3yo Mountain Cat in the Sim, and there are several good ones, including five stakes winners. Mr. AP Cat BG is a fast horse, which will suit the style of leading rider S. Tate perfectly. Nobody at the Mountain Oval is better at getting to the front and staying there. He usually has no trouble winning with horses like this one, with advantages both in class and speed figs. Numbers in the 90s are few and far between among the 14 starters here, and this colt has three of them. If Mr. AP Cat BG doesn’t earn points here, I think it’s time to hire double security at the Old Waterford backside.
As stated, the leading challenger to the standout favorite belongs to Wassie. She’s one of four fillies in this race, the 11-1 SWORD OF PGPG. This is by far the best Crusader Sword of his 2005 crop, and probably the only stake winner. A deep closer, she has a clear chance of becoming the Sim’s best Crusader Sword ever, and has a figure of $1.2 million career earnings to chase to catch a horse named BALLISTIC. This is a terrific filly who had a four-race winning streak snapped last out when she was rolling but too late to catch the winner. She cuts back in distance here, a switch that does not seem on first glance to help her chances. After all, she’s only been out of the exacta twice in nine career starts, and both were at six furlongs. She’s been closing strongly at 7 and 7.5 furlongs, so we’re going to have to conclude that this is not her best distance. Combined with the fact that this is her first time against colts, and the first time in a full field in a stakes race, she’s got her work cut out for her. Not helping any is the fact that Jocko Maloney is aboard, and he’s riding at a cold 5 percent for the year. He does prefer closers, however.
The first spoiler, that is, non-contest horse to qualify is FAST PAT DAY, an appropriately named son of Dayjur who breaks widest of all in post 14. Tough post for these good connections, the hot-riding Z. Watters, who’s 5-17 so far this year, and the solid tcity barn, which took down 17 races and one stake in 2005 with a 16.7 percent strike rate. This is the second race back off a little layoff for this colt, who moved up to a 92 speed fig in his return race and may well be sitting on a big one here. He better be, in order to overcome his wide post and the company he’s gonna have on the front end from the standout favorite and others.
Next is Shaggy3’s FUTURE DANCER. Draw a line through those two races at a mile, obviously not his best distance, and we have a horse who is four-for-five lifetime in the exacta and a very potent closer in this, his first try at 6 furlongs. He’s closed stoutly in more than one race at 6.5 furlongs, and it’s reasonable to expect his closing kick to be effective here at a slightly shorter distance. The most significant challenge to this horse is stepping up from a short, four-horse field to a full, 14-horse field. Having made several of his starts against owner-restricted competition and short fields, this looks like maybe the toughest race of his career, but at least it’s not at a mile, which he showed he didn’t like. Also, his running line from his most recent race in that short field is probably out of character because closers usually are at a disadvantage in a small field. With 14 fast 3yos in here, he’ll very likely have a pace to run at in here. He’ll need the outside horse to really pressure the favorite to have a chance at catching that one, however.
Fifth is DEAD IRISH WRITERS out of the mavrkstble, whose chances have passed away in the lane in three of his four career stakes starts. The exception was his stake win three back at the more favorable distance of 6.5 furlongs. The last two, at 8.5 and 7.5 furlongs, have just been a bit too far for him, and he could not get the distance in those races. He cuts back here and qualifies on class. Now, he’s gonna have to get the trip, which may be difficult as he looks like the third-best speed in here, which usually means a tough go. You have the favorite likely going for the lead, and a hot colt on the far outside gunning from the gate as well off a 92 speed fig. Tough call.
Nextbonus is going to try to chance his luck here at the Appalachian Spa with the sixth qualifier, TASMANIAN TIGER out of his canisminor stable. Like most of the Nextbonus barns, this is a very capable string, having won four stakes races last year among 22 total wins at a successful strike rate of 17.6 percent. Of course, if Nextbonus never raced at West Virginia, his percentages would be a little higher, but that’s bound to turn around at some point with the legit horses he’s sending to the Hills. This is one of the true gentlemen of the Sim and we’re looking for his West Virginia luck to turn anytime now. He obviously thinks a lot of Tasmanian Tiger, a filly by A.P. Indy. He’s entered her three times in graded competition, once against the boys. She’s been third in a Grade 3, and captured the second non-graded stake of her young career last out in a 7f Connecticut affair. She displays the powerful magic triangle handicapping angle, which involves declining numbers along two indexes and indicates rapid form improvement. It looks like she’s sitting on a big race, and she better be to get a piece of the pie in this competitive field.
Sodgod’s SISTER SWANK is next. He’s a son of Skip Away who has enjoyed success at the shorter sprint distance of 5.5 furlongs, but has yet to prove he can get 6f or more. He won a stake two back at 5.5 furlongs, but flopped last out going 6.5, and tired to fourth after leading at the head of the lane his only career try at 6f. It’s amazing that a sixteenth of a mile can make such a big difference, but I think it is an effective handicapping tool at a lot of real-life tracks to discount the chances of 5.5 furlong horses when they’re going 6f. I know it is at the real-life Mountaineer. That being said, this colt is liable to have a Johnny Cash-sized chip on his shoulder with that name of his, following the “Boy Named Sue” angle. He may like to mix it up some.
MARBORE is next, out of the 2aussie barn, which is coming off a rousing 2005 campaign which saw a whopping 18 allowance wins brought home, along with five stake wins, at a healthy 15.4 percent strike rate. Like Joe Hachem, this is an Aussie who knows how to win. As for the horse, Marbore is a little questionable on class here, as he’s managed only two show efforts in five career stake tries. Two of those were routes, however, a distance beyond the son of Elusive Quality’s range for this stage of his career. He shortens up here, and will have a pace to run at if he can accelerate in the lane. Having hit the board in all three of his starts at this distance, he rates consideration for trifecta tickets in here.
Surfer’s GIANT RUN(IRE) qualifies ninth, and will make his first-ever career stakes start in this race Saturday. Surfer is a shrewd Sim trainer, pocketing a big total of 16 allowance wins in 2005, out of a total of 28 achieved at the big-time strike rate of 20.3 percent. Surfer’s approach is reflected in his careful handling of Giant Run, who has taken down two of his allowance conditions while going 3-5 lifetime. Like a lot of the Iron Horse get, he’s versatile, having won on the turf and dirt already. He shortens up considerably for this race, which puts him in the hazardous territory of trying two new things at once: different distance while jumping up in class. Don’t doubt the Giant’s Causeways of the world, however, as they’re likely to jump up and run at any distance on any surface. It would be no major surprise to see this one rolling into contention late in the race.
We’re to Part 2 of the three-part Wassie entry with the 10th qualifier, THAT’S AMORE G out of Wassie’s dgdg stable. Like several others in here, this son of the Mr. P sire Mining is cutting back in distance, having been fourth and second in his last two at a mile and 7.5 furlongs. It’s hard to know how a horse who’s been running on or near the lead at longer distances is going to handle the hotter pace at a shorter distance. Will he be able to spring from the gate that much faster and join the early fray, or will he be able to rate and pass horses in the stretch? At 1-10 lifetime and still eligible for N2L, you would think at first glance that this one might be outclassed, but that second-place finish two back earns him my check mark for class. Let’s put it this way: We’ve seen Wassie enter a lot crazier longshots in this contest already this year.
Checking in at the 11th spot is OLIVER WANTS MORE out of thebaker2 stable. With the lowest earnings-per-start in the field, we know right away that this one is up against it class wise. He’s been solidly thumped in all three of his stakes tries, and he’s probably one we’re going to have to oppose in here. That being said, he’s a bit of a dangerous pitch because he’s in sharp form in allowance company, and earned a 91 speed fig last out this distance. Whether he can run that fast in this company remains to be seen.
Part No. 3 of the Wassie entry checks in 12th, his filly TRIGGER’S GIRL G out of his zz barn. This is a filly who is well on her way to establishing herself in the distaff classic dirt division, having risen to No. 54 on the basis of a non-graded win and placing. It’s evident that Wassie thinks a lot of her, having sent her out already in a Grade I and a Grade 2. She takes a bit of a detour on her career path here, cutting back to 6 furlongs and taking on the boys. This is a classy filly and I wouldn’t put it past her to hit the board in this race. She is razor sharp, having won with a nice 90 speed fig last out in a fillies-only non-graded stake at 8.5f. I just hope nothing bad happens in here against these boys Saturday and she can perhaps get on the trail toward the Bluegrass Oaks after this one.
Getting toward the bottom now, we have artsim’s WALKWITHSLEW in the 13th spot, with only four stakes points. This colt cleared his first allowance condition last out at this distance, earning his first 80-plus speed fig. He got hammered in his only career stake try, and we’re going to have to watch one before we’re convinced he fits with this bunch.
Finally, we have a longshot contest horse in RE WESTERN GROOM out of the Hijacked barn. With only 1 stakes point earned in eight career starts, this daughter of Sadler’s Wells cuts all the way back from 9 furlongs to this sprint Saturday. Judging from the way she closed last out, this is a filly that is going to grow stronger with more age and distance to her races. It will be impressive if she can get anywhere near the leading horses by the time the wire hits in this sprint on Saturday.
In conclusion, with so many cutting back in distance, the front end does not look so hot after all, and Bob123g has a tremendous shot to reverse the trend of beaten favorites in Old Waterford stakes. A lot of the horses in here are not perfectly suited for 6f sprints, and this race is right up Mr. AP Cat BG’s alley. The recommended bet is a trifecta wheel with that one on top, with Fast Pat Day with all, and Mr. with all with Pat Day. Got that? Good luck you all and stay out of those West Virginia coal mines.