Keeping A Close Eye On The Sexy Muffins
Those of us who have the misfortune to be trapped in the northern hemisphere (and the northeastern
Sexy Muffins Classic
Grade I
One mile
Firm Turf
$500,000
Fillies and mares, 4 years old and up
PP | Horse ID | Horse | Owner | Jockey | Odds | Comments |
1 | SPICEGIRL | 6/1 | This earner of $1.4 million is ranked 19th in the division, and has recently demonstrated the versatility to be competitive regardless of where she’s placed in a race, on the lead or somewhat off the pace. Since a return to turf after a brief foray onto the dirt, this mare has ripped off wins at every stakes level: she’s taken a G1, G2, and G3 race, along with a pair of listed stakes. She rebounded from a poor effort two starts back with an emphatic 2 ¼ length victory in her last start, and she looks like she may be in a great position to take this field wire to wire from the inside gate. | |||
2 | I CAN HEAR YOU | 24/1 | After a solid G2 win eight starts back, this six year old mare by Summer Squall took a turn for the worse: 5th in the same G1 that Spicegirl won, she hasn’t cracked the 100 speed figure barrier since then, her most recent efforts resulting a pair of 83 speed figures that would have her in the bottom half of this field. $1.2 million in earnings proves that this was once a very talented mare, but her best days may be behind her now. | |||
3 | JOLIE’S SONG | 5/1 | Ranked #1 in the division, Jolie’s Song may be the most unorthodox division leader in the game at the moment: she hasn’t faced her own gender since competing in this race last year (53 weeks and 12 starts), nor has she won a race since the G2 Buddy Boy Mile, which means that it has been 50 weeks since her last win, and she comes in with an 11 race losing streak. Why is she the morning line favorite, and even more confusingly, why aren’t I suggesting that the oddsmaker may be experimenting with judgment-distorting crack cocaine? First of all, this one’s speed figures put her right at the top of the group, and she’s placed in G1 races against the boys several times; its hard to knock a mare with that kind of ability. All the same, she hasn’t finished better than 9th in any of her four most recent races, and her speed figures in those four races averages a 98. She’ll need a quick turnaround and she’ll need to hope that returning to her own division can help her regain her form, but she’s classy enough to make it a realistic possibility. That said, the fact that the oddsmaker may be justified in setting the odds as he did does not mean that this mare is a solid play at 5/1: she’s vulnerable even while seemingly dropping in class. | |||
4 | RIVERBOAT QUEEN | 9/1 | A.P. Indy mare has a beautiful pedigree and seems like a true 8-9 furlong horse, but this company is a little tougher than she’s seen recently. It’ll be her sternest test to date, but I wouldn’t be surprised if she stepped up and ran a big race, possibly threatening for the top spot. | |||
5 | 12/1 | This closer is a classy horse but is likely to run out of ground; she hasn’t seen a distance this short in a long time and may, in addition, simply lack the class to compete with G1 quality milers. A nice horse in her own right, but asked to do a lot today. | ||||
6 | 7/1 | On her game, she’s as quick out of the gate as any horse in the field, but if she’s pressured early she may have issues. A 4th in her only try at the graded stakes level doesn’t really provide any sort of a barometer for how she’ll handle today’s race: the try was solid enough to expect that she may be able to move forward off of it and be competitive here, but she was fading late and that’s not necessarily promising as she will find some classy speedsters to test her in this group. | ||||
7 | THIRTEENTH DATE | 11/1 | Ranked 12th in the divison, this Gone West filly has a pedigree as nice as any in the field, and she can run as well as her pedigree suggests. She’s coming in off of a 2nd in a G1 race with a 102 speed figure, is a G1 winner over a mile, and obviously belongs with this group. She’s in here at ridiculously long odds and especially if she gets the pace situation, she could be motoring through the stretch and make some noise at the finish. Would not be a surprise if jockey L. Fontain brought this one home first. | |||
8 | CTB DE(IRE) | 42/1 | T. Baxter, on the other hand, would send the crowd here at | |||
9 | SJ’S SILVER GHOST | 13/1 | Lifetime earnings of over $2 million and the 14th rank in the division are not stats to be taken lightly, and if you toss out this one’s disaster last time out going 10 furlongs (which is 2 furlongs too many for her), she fits with this group. She’s a speedster, and she won’t have an easy lead, but if she can duplicate the race that saw her win the Red Bird Handicap (G3) with a 106 speed figure, she may have a shot at outlasting the other speed for a piece of this pie. | |||
10 | 6/1 | Recently became a millionaire, and she’s ranked 9th in the division. Despite breeding that screams for the dirt (Forty Niner x | ||||
11 | A | 6/1 | Ranked 5th in the division, this mare has tended to be the pacemaker in longer races, which leaves her in an interesting situation as she backs up. She’ll be looking for the lead, but perhaps not prepared to run as fast as she’ll need to if she wants to secure it. Certainly, she’s found 10-12 furlongs to be too far, and her last win was over 9 furlongs, so if she can return to the form that carried her to G1 wins last summer, she’ll likely get a good stalking trip from the outside of the field, and she’ll be able to bide her time outside of the other speed breaking to her inside. Jockey M. Slater doesn’t get on many horses, but when he does he tends to win; he’s 3: 2-0-0 this year, which probably works in this one’s favor. | |||
12 | MANAHEE | 26/1 | Easy as it would be to point to her 13th place finish in a G1 last time out, one must give her the benefit of the doubt and assume she simply abhorred the yielding turf. This mare was bred by the trainer “theatrical,” and for those of you that have been around long enough to appreciate why that’s relevant, little more may need to be said. For those that haven’t, suffice it to say that its not a name that rival trainers enjoyed seeing in the entry box. This filly, for her part, has a realistic chance to at least pick up a small check if her closing run is solid in this one. | |||
13 | APPLE TREE II | 27/1 | Would like to see at least one run in the last 8 where this mare had broken the 100 speed figure barrier. Not finding it, I’m having a hard time finding a reason to support this filly today. The jump from claimers/starter allowance to open allowances proved significantly less troublesome than the jump from allowance company to graded stakes company proved to be; after an allowance win and a 96 speed figure, she threw out an 8th place finish with an 83 speed figure last time out, and doesn’t figure to be any better off today. | |||
14 | MY | 8/1 | Inconsistent of late, which is the major strike against her, but when she’s at her best she can run with the best in this field. Shows several G3 wins in her recent performances, and her best may have her in a solid position to at least challenge for a G1 win here. |