Big Race Preview 2734
Back from vacation ready to roll! If you have not voted for the sim eclipse awards wait no longer.
http://www.dsanford.com/simulatedsports/eclipse2005/eclipseawards2005.html
First week back and we have some limited action. Four grade I races kick off the new year as we get a taste of the young three year olds as well as a few older horses we are familiar with. A couple of Breeder’s Bowl winners headline the week with Swift Kick and Casterly Rock (IRE). Maybe one of the most exciting two year old turf runners Hail Cesario and the lights out young filly Thnxmsslew headline the other races. So kick back grab your favorite beverage and check out this weeks top runners.
Race: 2734.0416 Fair Warning Grade I – $500,000
Track:
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 4 years old and up
Distance: A mile and one eighth on the Dirt
Breeder’s Bowl Distaff winner Swift Kick makes her four year old debut as the clear cut favorite. Swift Kick had an awesome three year old season taking probably the two biggest races available to three year old dirt fillies, the Bluegrass Oaks and the Breeder’s Bowl Distaff. In between those wins she won two other grade I races and placed in several others. Last time out she faced the boys at a mile and finishing second.
Swift Kick has an ideal stalking running style. She does not get caught up in the hot pace and she has the speed to not let anyone get away from her on an easy pace. She looks very solid in this race but in a full field weird things can happen. The second favorite here is the 2004 Breeder’s Bowl Distaff winner Squall is a Storm. After her spectacular three year old season, Squall was able to maintain a high level of performance. Her last three races have not been real good however the old girl may not be done yet. She would like to show she belongs with Swift Kick.
Smokey’s Chant is on a nice streak of racing and stepped up to this level last time out. She finished ahead of Squall is a Storm last time out so she could be a factor here. Her deep closing style however means she will have to run down Swift Kick and that will be a tough task. Cupid’s Dead hails from the same barn as the favorite. She is a grade I winner herself and has finished ahead of Squall is a Storm. She also is a closer so could have some problems closing on the favorite.
Race: 2734.3716 Lion of Lannister – Grade I – $500,000
Track:
Restrictions: All horses, 4 year olds
Distance: Six furlongs on the Dirt
Breeder’s Bowl Sprint winner Casterly Rock (IRE) leads this strong field of sprinters. He has a pretty dominating series of sprint races to end last year. As he starts to face his older rivals more this year I think he will find wins a little harder to come by. Casterly Rock’s running style keeps him in nearly every race. He stalks off the pace and always seems to have a run in the stretch.
Salmon Hater is actually the favorite in the race. After running second in a grade I he went back to running in listed stakes. He has had three very fast runs in listed stakes, two wins, and now steps back up to the grade I level. So are the super fast speed figures because he is maturing or is it the level of competition he has been facing. He gets a big time test here and his speed figures are very hard to ignore.
My Sheba T rolls into this race off an outstanding win in the grade I Deep South Sprint. He has put up some very good speed figures as well. My Sheba T can run on the pace and that could be the place to be in this race. Cyrrius King has the best recent speed figure. He scored a 115 last time out in a listed stakes running gate to wire. If he is allowed set a clear pace he could upset the field.
Race: 2734.0114
Track
Restrictions: All horses, 3 years old
Distance: A mile and one eighth on the Turf
We get a sneak peak at a very exciting young colt. Hail Cesario was a perfect five wins from five starts as a two year old. He ended his season with a grade I win against some pretty nice horses. His speed figure of 97 last time out was one of the best turf speed figures by a two year old. The added distance here should be no problem for Hail Cesario. He is a stalker who usually is not too far off the early pace. If he runs back to his last race he wins by five lengths. He can probably regress a bit and still win comfortably.
Creepshow (IRE) suffered the first defeat of his young career last time out against Hail Cesario. This could be the beginning of an interesting rivalry. Creepshow will likely be a little behind Hail Cesario in the early stages and looks like the best running besides Hail Cesario. Very Silver is a grade I winner and was the runner up in the Breeder’s Bowl Juvy Turf however he finished behind the top two last time out. He ran evenly last time out, lacking the needed kick in the stretch to compete.
Isle of Revenge poses a serious threat to the favorites. This guy has a ton of speed and holds on to leads. He went gate to wire last time out in the G3 Phenom Stakes. Since switching to the turf Isle has been perfect. There may not be much of a challenge for the lead here and that could put Isle of Revenge is an excellent position for the upset.
Race: 2734.0316 Sky Beauty AHndicap – Grade I – $500,000
Track:
Restrictions: Fillies and mares, 3 years old
Distance: Six furlongs on the Dirt
The very rare grade I sprint for fillies. For the most part this looks like a two horse race but with these youngsters you never know who will suddenly start running lights out. Thnxmsslew leads this field of three year old filly sprinters. She already has a two G1 wins and one G2 win under her belt with five wins from eight starts. Her only two off the board were in routes and by the looks of her performances there she does not like the extra ground. When the gates fly open she will likely be mid pack in the early stages probably not too far off the pace. She ran down her co favorite last time out and that should set us up for a fun finish.
Peace Blossom is the co favorite here and she has some speed. She has been able to shake clear in all her races and it took a great run by Thnxmsslew to run her down last time out. Another race under the belt could only help Peace Blossom and if she is left alone on the lead again she is a real danger to beat Thnxmsslew.
Elusive Infinity might be one of those runners that could show rapid improvement. She has gotten better as she has run in routes her last couple of times out but she has a very sprinty pedigree. She has run solid in graded company and the cut back in distance could be the angle that puts her into contention if the pace gets hot. Powered by Azroc is another runner here that could show sudden improvement. She debuted and has only run in route races so she is cutting back and running in a sprint for the very first time. Her pedigree seems to lean towards a route type runner but she has flashed solid speed so she just might be able to sprint pretty well.