The Dancin’ Fool Memorial Stakes
The Dancin’ Fool Memorial Stakes
Italy: 2734.6310
by stlcards
Just rolled into town and had a bit of time so I thought what better than to check out some of the other races. The Dancin’ Fool Memorial Stakes for Fillies and mares, 4 years old and up caught my eye.
Every owner is asking the same question, how improved will my horse be this season? Of the 9 entrants for this 7 1/2 furlong event, 6 of them are just turning four and are now forced to run with the big girls. The weather out is splendid and the turf track is in firm condition as the field of 9 compete for the $65,000 purse. Let’s look at the field.
The oilspill stables hope to clean up with their 4yo filly Alberta Fire who will be running along the rail. This winner of 6 has been in the money 16 out of 19 races! Easy to see why when you look at those royal lines of Seeking the Gold x Gone West x Secretariat. She is coming off an impressive turf win with a 102SP in her last race of her 3yo season. She likes to hang back making her move late. If she doesn’t get too far behind she could have a nice showing here.
From the 2 post we have the 7th ranked turf sprinter and incredibly at 4/1 she isn’t even the favorite despite winning 12 races in 22 attempts for a better than 50% win rate. Owner paseana92 used a The combination of Storm Cat x Seeking the Gold x Tri Jet to get this monster filly named Gold Squall. Gold Squall is coming into Saturday’s race in good form having won 3 out of her last 4 races. Don’t expect to find her among the leaders as they break from the gate, but be prepared for an exciting finish from way off the pace coming down the home stretch. Has the talent to win and a jockey that has won 19% of his races this year.
Bux Noelle G is running out of the 3rd gate and owner buxpasser has hired jockey C Indy who is looking for his first win of the new season. This filly is looking to improve as a 4yo and will need to run a career race to find the winner’s circle. Her last race as a 3yo indicates she is maturing well as she recorded a personal best 100SP, but that was still only good enough for a show. She has won at the stakes level and should compete here, but won’t want to get too far off the pace based on her past success.
Next we find the 5yo mare, Grand Dessert bred and owned by tiramisu. She has only 1 win in her last 8 races and is hoping that her extra year of maturity and racing experience will give her a competetive advantage this early in the season. While she hasn’t been winning many races as of late, she has been within a few lengths and has consistently run speed figures in the upper 90’s. At 8/1 she is not among the favorites but don’t count her out either. I would expect to find her mid-pack before she makes her move. Not sure if she has enough to hold off some deeper closers though.
From the 5th gate comes the 4yo filly Bloodstream, owned by repent. Bloodstream looks similar to Grand Dessert with 2 wins in her last 8 starts. She goes off at 7/1 odds with jockey M McMahan aboard for the ride. Bloodstream looks to improve as a 4yo and could break the 100SP mark if she has matured. Last year she was favoring a bit shorter ground and the 7 1/2f could be a bit more than she wants unless she has indeed matured. Her sire Van Nistelrooy was a new one to me, but I see he is out of Storm Cat and carries a fair price tag to breed. This is yet another horse that won’t likely try to set the pace out of the gate.
Drawing the number 6 post is the 4yo filly Compensation, bred and owned by lenny1. Another royal breed with Seeking the Gold x Northern Dancer x Secretariat. Compensation has been well compensated earning almost 3/4 of a million dollars in 17 races. Her last two races were a stakes and allowance wins. She didn’t fare as well in her recent Graded attempts, but this is a regular stakes race and she should compete just fine here. A 100SP seems to be a benchmark for this race and she has run 5 of her last 8 races with speed figures over 100. These high speed figures have caught the eyes of the handicappers who have made her the 3/1 favorite for the race. I believe she will either set the pace herself trying to wire the field, or more likely hang just back for the first few furlongs.
The 7th entry in the race is the oldest horse, a 6yo mare named Cainwasntable, owned by kyliette. She is a winner of 8 races and has the ability to wire the field if she runs a good race. Speed figures are certainly there and I believe she will like the distance. Her last 3 races in stakes company, including a G2, didn’t have the most desireable results, but she did win 3 out of 4 races prior to that. At 9/2 the handicappers give her a good shake at a win. She probably needs to set a fast pace and try to put enough distance between herself and the pack that the closers never have a chance.
Running from the 8th position is Canis Dirus going off at 6/1 odds. Owner tigerman bred this 4yo filly using Capote x FuPeg x Storm Bird, which to date has resulted in 5 wins in 17 tries. She has only 1 win in her last 8 races, but does hold the fastest SP of 106 over the last 8 races of any horse in the field. She has lots of stakes experience and runs in the upper 90s most of the time. Any little bump due to an extra year of maturity will make a world of difference in this race. Her best efforts seem to be when she lays way off the pace and charges late.
The last entry and running from the outside is Minstrel in Gray(IRE). The 76/1 odds given to this 5yo mare owned by crandyiii would seem to indicate it is outclassed and has little chance. She has been running in allowance and claimer company and is the only horse making the step up to stakes company within her last 8 races. Has recently been running a mile and perhaps dropping back a furlong will help. One can only hope as there is little else to suggest she will finish ITM. You never know though, and that is why they run the races.
Looks like it will be a competitive race with only a couple of horses with early speed. It is possible that one of these horses will wire the field, but it seems more likely to me that one of the deep closers, with my choice being Gold Squall to run down the field. Good luck to all!