Santa Jezebel Quandry

The California card is has six stakes this Saturday, including the Grade III $125,000 Santa Jezebel for three year old fillies going 1 1/16 miles.  The Santa Jezebel has attracted a very competitive field, with seven of the eleven fillies going off at odds between 9 to 2 and 8 to 1. 

Papua Theft is the highest rated filly in the field, as the number eight filly at this classic distance.  She looks to be challenged by improving fillies like the recent Grade I winner Lucky’s Brook Lynn.

Here’s a look at the field:

1. On the rail is the local filly.  Five Points (Point Given x Forty Niner) makes her fifth start, all here in California, as the lukewarm morning line favorite.  She has three wins for the very professional Lenny1 (20%) barn.  Her last start was her stakes debut, where she eked out the narrowest of victories in a four horse blanket finish against colts.  Lenny1 moves her up in class and against a larger field.  The switch to a distaff race may give her an edge.  You have to wonder, and maybe worry, why regular jockey Frank Gossett abandons her to ride Papua Theft.

2. Dixieland Deputy (Dixieland Band x Deputy Minister) exits out a third in the very tough Grade I Mother Story Handicap from the DelPenn stakes.  The Lurch (11%) trained filly closes from well off the pace.  She owns a stakes win at the track, and has been in the money in six of her seven route tries.  Looks like a good bet to pick up at least a piece of this.

3. The most lightly raced horse in PointGiv1’s (9%) stable is also the top money winner.  Lie to Me (Rock Slide x Sadler’s Wells) got caught up in a speed duel her last race, the Grade I Movieland Starlet, and faded to fourth.  That race may be a key to this one.  Five Points was second, Lie to Me fourth, Wakiwild sixth, and Papua Theft eighth.  Lie to Me seems to improving and is two for three since moving to routes.  She needs to stay out of a duel with the other two early horses in here.  Last year’s Santa Jezebel’s exacta came from Sadler’s Wells daughters (How’s that for in-depth reporting?)

4. Lord Stanley (Coronado’s Quest x Seattle Slew) did pick up a stakes placing last time, but it was against a small and weak field in a grassy sprint.  This seems an ambitious placing by the crafty NYWinger (13%), and picking up a 4% jockey doesn’t help.  She likes to come from midpack, and maybe the longer distance will help.

5. OCanada (13%) entered Too Close (Menhal x Seattle Slew) at the last minute for this.  Several others in here have had better speed figures, and more classy wins, which explains the long odds.  Stalker did run her best last time when she tried a route for the first time, but she would be a surprise here.

6. There’s a lot to like about Papua Theft (A. P. Indy x Mr. Prospector).  1.  She’s the top rated filly in the field.  2.  Trainer Pick4 wins over 22% of his races.  3.  She has a Grade I win in the Fast Filly Stakes.  4.  She attracts the dominant California Jockey in Frank Gossett.  But here’s why she won’t win: 1. Her form has been declining.  2.  Her top speed figure has been eclipsed by several here.

7. Wakiwild (Forest Wildcat x Miswaki) seemed to be running a perfect stalking trip in the Movieland Starlet, but could not advance.  Trained by the veteran TurfSurf (14%), she is the second choice in the morning line.  She has tried graded stakes three times without success, and is zero for two in two-turn races. 

8. MrLucky229 (22%) has had an impressive year, earning well over 2200 breeding points.  He also won a Grade I race with Lucky’s Brook Lynn (Kingmambo x Danzig) last time in the DelPenn Dangerous Reward Stakes.  Lynn is four for six in dirt sprints and tries two turns for the first time here.  The stalking/pressing style indicates she should be able to handle the distance.  Her speed figures have been steadily improving to a very impressive 97 last time.  She picks up the number two jockey in Timmy Bates.  The one to beat.

9. Incredible Peg (Fusaichi Pegasus x Tabasco Cat) faces her toughest challenge by far in this.  The TG1 (18%) trained filly has two wins and two seconds in four tries, but the competition was not like this.  Her win last time in The Side Top(Ven) Stakes was nice, but it came in a field of four including a computer horse.  The breeding is great, the trainer is top-notch, and the speed figures are competitive.  We just don’t know how she will respond to a route or to graded stakes company.

10. Amazing Discovery (Galileo x Gone West) pulled up in the Mother Story.  She was progressing steadily for IsItTrue (12%) before that, and if we could ignore that race, she would fit right in with these.  You don’t get 15-1 on flawless horses.  She’s won against the boys twice, including in the ungraded Alex Agriculture, and she is one for two in dirt routes.  15-1. Aren’t you a little tempted?

11. Lineball (Line in the Sand x Deputy Minister) has never been more than a length and a half from the lead in her life.  In a race that only has three early speed fillies (Lie to Me, Incredible Peg, and Lineball), that may well be an advantage.  The Phantom (17%) trainee has won her last two, but has never faced as much talent as she sees today.

Morning Line selection:  1-7-2-8-9

Timmn’s picks:  2-8-3-11

timmn@hotmail.com