DelPenn’s Kelso Cup: The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year

Take one of the all-time great horses.  Take one of the more entertaining distances to watch a real-life race.  Then combine them on one of the Sim’s most boisterous and contentious days of racing this side of the Breeders Bowl.  What comes to life then is the Grade I, $1,000,000 Kelso Cup, which is the twelfth race on this year’s DelPenn Champion’s Day card at Delaware this weekend.

Once upon a time, it used to be that December in New York was a time for marathons.  The New York Racing Association used to be very good about that sort of thing, in another era in which horses were used with more vigor, and NYRA had enough cash in the bank to buy more than only a cup of coffee.  First, in mid-December, they ran the mile-and-five-eighths Gallant Fox Handicap, a one-time Grade II race that was a stepping stone to the traditional New Year’s Eve feature, the Display Handicap.  At one time a Grade III, it was contested at the now-unheard-of distance of two-and-a-quarter-miles—that’s a whopping 18 furlongs.  The race never attracted top-name talent, particularly when it was run on Aqueduct’s winterized inner track for just over two complete circuits of the course.  But the races were always entertaining: it was a true marathon in an age when horsemen were already beginning to treat their charges like glass ornaments.  The Display was eliminated about fifteen years ago, and the Gallant Fox now stands alone as the traditional year-ending stakes race on the New York circuit.

One horse who in his day ran his share of marathons was the great iron warrior, Kelso.  He swept the Jockey Club Gold Cup from 1960 to 1964, each time winning by margins of four lengths or more, and this was back in the days when the Gold Cup was held at the distance of two miles, instead of the relatively wimpy classic mile-and-a-quarter distance it is today.  The real-world Kelso Handicap is, somewhat inexplicably, held at a mile on grass (though he was a certainly capable horse on the turf, Kelso only won two allowance races and the 1964 D.C. International in all of eight turf starts) instead of one of his most successful distances, because racing has changed to such a great extent that the old rules of training an allegedly more fragile breed of thoroughbred have been set aside for a focus on speed and 15 minutes of racing fame.  But here in the Sim, some of the most durable of the marathon specialists take center stage in this sixteen furlong million-dollar race. 

The field seems quite contentious, with five of the Top 25 marathon horses, from all classifications, leading the way in this large field of fourteen.  Here are the contestants:

Act Of God [Empire Maker-X.P. Country Club, by A.P. Indy] is first up.  He’s #32 among his fellow three-year-olds in the long distance category, and his chief wins came in a pair of listed stakes at a mile-and-three-sixteenths earlier in his campaign.  He’s never been this far before, but was a fast-closing second at a mile-and-a-half in one of those GR Simsters restricted events.  Trainer lenny13 should have him ready off four weeks rest, and this one should be a-wassailing from well off the pace, provided he likes the extra ground to start with.  He just missed in the Grade I Citation Cup, from nowhere to second, which proves he can battle against top flight competition as needed.  He’s never been one to keep pace up front, and that won’t be likely to change in this spot.

Pennant Race [Point Given-S. Point, by Unbridled] is by far the longest shot on the board, and handicappers might well be asking “What horse is this/that’s entered here/to take a shot/at DelPenn?”  On surface, this appears true.  Check this out: he was beaten 98 lengths two back over a good track, and was beating an astonishing 123 lengths three back.  Plus, his speed figures haven’t yet broken 100, and he’s never been tested at a graded level before.  In fact, he’s still eligible for a NW2x allowance.  Overwhelming evidence against him, to be certain, but there’s always a glimmer of hope in the Sim, and here, it’s based on pedigree.  His dam was a Grade III dirt route winner (the 2000 Sand Castle Distaff) and was nosed out of a win in the inaugural Breeders Bowl Distaff in 1998 (which was done before she even broke her maiden).  Her specialty laid in long-distance affairs, over a mile-and-a-quarter, and she was very consistent.  She picked up a check 32 times in 34 starts at those long distances, both turf and dirt, and trainer saver can take heart in that his colt’s dam blossomed later in life.  This one’s always been a closer, and while on paper he appears a wee bit overmatched, perhaps a change in strategy could shake things up in a positive manner.  Having earned a check in all but those two really wretched starts, there’s a certain ability to respect, but he’ll likely need more time to develop.

Especially [Sadler’s Wells-Sharon La, by Torrential], I have learned, should never be predicted.  Bettors dismissed him in the Jockey Guild, and I cop to dismissing him with a bland “He’s certainly in the mix, but…” commentary in that race’s preview.  Result?  He came from nowhere to be second, beaten only three-quarters of a length.  In the Flying Carpet preview, I said, “He’s the X factor” in his grass debut and picked him for third.  Result?  He was ninth, beaten almost 40 lengths.  All this proves is that this horse remains an enigma, and I remain a twit.  Putting that aside, the turf-to-dirt angle should be a good training tool to shake off that pretty stinkaroo performance last out on grass in New York.  The distance isn’t a factor, as he’s remained pretty consistent, inasmuch as he can be predicted, and usually has preferred just sitting off the lead.  As trained by illbred, he has never been two miles before, but with his running style readjusted to a come-from-the-back closing run, he should, and please take this with the Salt Lake, sit near the rear of this marathon before getting a good late charge.  He can handle the added ground, but is there a limitation?  That, I’m afraid to speculate on.  There are a lot of late charges here, but not a lot of speed.  Yet, if he can run back to his tries at 13 and 14 furlongs, he could be in for piece of things before the race is over.  9-1 does give a bettor some good value here, if you’re willing to risk some of your gold and frankincense and myrrh on a wager.

High Five II [Seattle Slew x Alydar] represents lucky7, and he’s about as deep a closer as I’ve seen in some time.  He closed from some 20 lengths off the lead in the Ernie Disorder three back, and came up some three lengths short going a mile-and-a-half.  He’s truly a marathon specialist, and he can be versatile: if he can run back to that stakes race in October 2004 in Florida, whereby he set a torrid early pace and still managed to win by five-and-a-half with a 116 figure, he could have it nice and easy among these.  But that might be asking too much in this spot, because his three efforts against graded horses had him running off the board in each, his best result coming last out with a fifth in British Columbia.  His back figs are very solid for this race, but his current ones, while still pretty decent, do seem to indicate that this five-year-old might have surpassed his peak levels of performance.    Nevertheless, he’s another solid latecomer, and he has a strong early foot to utilize as needed, and in a race that comes up pretty light on early speed, this may come in very handy.  After all, if he opts to close like so many of the others can, from Atlantic to Pacific, gee, the traffic’d be terrific.

Frozen Reality [Came Home-Manilla Pain, by A.P. Indy] doesn’t, at first blush, appear to have the pedigree to carry him one mile, never mind two, but a closer inspection of this bulletday9 trainee suggests something different.  Earlier in his career, this four-year-old focused more on miles and shorter middle-distance races, with middling results.  But when he began to stretch out to longer, his results, and his figures began to pop quite nicely.  He won his only try at this distance in his stakes debut, and did so (again) from off the pace, though he stayed in much closer contact with the leaders in his win than some of the others have managed to do in some of their starts, proving he doesn’t need to be dashing through the snow from the North Pole in a one-horse open sleigh with eight tiny reindeer and a mutant.  Still, despite the 104 he got while finishing a belated second in New Hampshire three back, his latest figs haven’t been impressive enough, holding firm to the 90s like Vanilla Ice.  A run back to his stakes debut puts him in good stead, and his pedigree (dam was a Grade III-winning sprinter in 2001) combined sprinter’s ability with staying power, but he needs to raise his game this late in the year for a premium effort.

Cryptomite [Crypto Star x Lucky North], for opimulder, comes from humble origins, but has made it work for her this year.  Kelso would have been proud—she enters this on a three-race winning streak, all races coming at this particular marathon distance, and she’s 5-for-8 career at this distance in stakes level.  With all five of her stakes wins coming this year, she’s shown that mares can run at a high level for a long time, especially when she’s 6 and it seems like other mares her age are settling down, raising kids and enjoying a leisurely pace on shed row.  Despite a strong record on the calendar year, her numbers are down a bit, and she’s almost running exclusively against other fillies (though that has changed a bit towards that end in ’05).  Still, her start speeds give her a certain edge here, in that lately she’s been pressing the pace more often, not dropping back as far as she did early in her career, which keeps her in the running within a race that is light on early speed.  It may make it easier for her to come upon a midnight clear should the early scenario fold.  The question remains, though, if this old gal can hold off more youthful and energetic stretch runs; at #10 among older mares in the marathon division, her experience needs to be taken seriously.

Desert Dish(IRE) [Desert King(IRE) x Baldski] is the second of three femme fatale entries, and as trained by aa3ik, she’s another six-year-old mare who may be having a cup of kindness yet in the name of auld lang syne.  Still, if she’s going to the breeding shed anytime soon, she’s going out with a bang: she’s won six of ten starts at this distance, and is a four-time stakes winner this year alone.  Still, her numbers should give a handicapper pause.  She’s taken a couple of fair shots at racing against colts, and in fact she’s at least earned black-type status against the boys three back when setting the pace and fading to third at Idaho.  But she hasn’t cracked the 100 figure barrier since June of 2004, and that was the only time to date she’s done so.  Her figs are into the 90s on a regular basis, though, and she’s shown some signs of life lately: her last was dynamic in every respect except, alas, for the end result, when she opened up a dazzling 12-length lead with a half-mile to go, only to be nailed with about 70 yards to go to be beaten three parts of a length.  She’s almost certainly going to go out winging uncontested here, but barring her jock’s ability to rate her into a candidate with enough gas in the tank at the end, when they approach quickly, her jock better exhort her to “Giddyup, jingle horse, pick up your feet” to the wire as best she can manage.

Galloping Ghost [Wild Again x Easy Goer] represents tejanorun very well indeed this year; she’s earned over a million bucks this year alone, courtesy of four graded wins against the boys, three of those at this distance.  She’s battle-tested against males, to be sure, with all but two starts coming against the opposite sex this season, and you could hold her late kick up favorably against most any animal in the Sim over her career—you could hear what I hear, the “thumpety thump-thump, thumpety thump-thump” as she charges down the stretch and gobbles up real estate with relish.  She’s a proven warrior against colts at these marathons, but her figs have taken something of a hit as the fall has unfolded, her figs sliding back from that 112 she had to start the year in the Gallant Socks win to the mid-90s.  Granted, some of that was stiff competition (an ill-fated try in the BB Distaff) or training tactics designed to get her mojo working (an even uglier result in her lone ’05 grass try), but as she is about to turn 6, it’s fair to say this multi-millionairess might have hit that certain age where her vast experience comes back on her bones.  Respect her very-impressive late run, which she always has in spades, and know that she’s always picked up a paycheck at this distance (5-for-16 lifetime, 16-for-16 in the money), but on recent form, and considering her mild third in 2005 Kelso Cup (where her late run didn’t stay alit as it usually does), it might be smarter to use her more on the bottom of her exotics.  She’s still deserving of all praise, and is still #1 among distaff marathoners, but in this spot, it’s a tough call.

Elkano(GB) [Beat Hollow(GB) x Darshaan(ENG)] has never traveled the two miles before for trainer zalamy, but he does appreciate marathons and has some speed to burn.  Expect him to be near the pace to keep an eye on Desert Dish(IRE).  He’s a five-time stakes winner this year, and he’s still capable to pop a fig in the 100s as needed: despite his best career numbers coming last year, he’s broken the 100 mark in two of his last three outings.  Still, when it comes to graded stakes action, he’s always come up short at the critical moments, with his best result a second in last year’s Louisiana Derby.  He kept good company last year, and that likely influence his figures; even though this year the level of competition hasn’t 100% been the elite of the handicap division, the numbers lately suggest that maybe he’s more ready now that he’s been seasoned.  It’s still a bit of a step up for him—last graded race attempt came back in February—but one that recent form hints he might have a fair shot to handle.  Here, it’s a matter of pace, as there’s so little up front, and so much coming from behind, and here, he’s in the minority up towards the front.  No doubt on the lead, he’ll frolic and play, the Eskimo way, but in making his debut at this distance, there’s a question how much fuel he’ll have left over when the closers come marching.

Killerzandglitterz [Glitterman x Septieme Ciel] is another marathon specialist who seriously belied his breeding.  On paper, it seems like he’s a sprinter, maybe long sprinter/miler on grass.  And he did sprint a lot early on, and tried the grass constantly for nine of his first ten starts for trainer killerz.  But once he easily wired a field of $35K claimers going this distance, winning by 8, by Jove, something clicked.  The preference for the marathon has really turned this five-year-old out, and sometime late last year, he really started rockin’ the epic races, with steadily improving figures and a stunning upset in last fall’s Grade II Colonel Prospector Emerald Stakes at 14 furlongs.  This year, he started off with a strong third in the Gallant Socks, but hasn’t been able figure-wise to step up his game, with just a stakes win under his belt.  He’s certainly a capable router, who enjoys stamina-building races, he usually fires a strong late move, and he’d gladly trample four calling birds, three French hens and two turtle doves if it meant he’d hit the wire first.  But the quality of the fields he’s battled this time around hasn’t been uniformly classy, and when they have been, a la the Nashua Cup, he’s come up late and short.  He can lead, and can come late successfully with many of these, but recent form has lack a bit of spice.  Perhaps the return to two miles of ground will bring him back up a notch.

Royal Forty Indy [Royal Academy-Forty Indy, by A.P. Indy], for julie, is still eligible of a NW3x allowance, but is a capable marathoner who has some newfound appreciation for the long ground.  He broke his maiden going a mile-and-a-half in the GSR-restricted version of the Belmont, and received a 101 for that effort.  Since that point in mid-June, he’s broken the 100 celing three other times.  Most impressively, though, perhaps was last out, when he drew off to a six-length lead late in an Eastern Kentucky allowance before staving off closers for a hard-fought two-length win.  His number came up a sparkling 105, and a repeat of that effort puts him in the position of delivering tidings of comfort and joy to his connections.  He’s running a half-mile longer than he ever has previously, and his tendency towards stalking the pace would, in this field, be troubling with the number of runners with a penchant for late kicks and long strides, but his last-out fig is very sharp among these, and being all of 3 he should be in the prime of his running life right about now.  Depending on how well he rates early on, he could be a player in the end result.

Casual Connection [Rahy x Cozzene] is lightly raced this year, with all of six starts leading into his 2005 finale, and there’s a lot to find appealing about this veteran.  Stalking the leader he seems to be chasing…having strong numbers versus those he’s been racing…a strong pedigree trained by one piracing…these are a few of my favorite things.  He likes sitting off a sturdy pace scenario, if not going out early, fast and often against his fellow journeymen.  While he may never come back to that 118 in last year’s Peach State Classic, in an abbreviated campaign this time around, four of his six tries earned figures in the low-100s.  And while the Rahy x Cozzene gives him speed, the Theatrical at the bottom of his pedigree gives him a suitable amount of stamina in this spot.  He thoroughly dominated last year’s GSR Grade I at the distance, and with a two-race winning streak coming in, his recent form is nothing but figgy pudding.  Though he too may have seen sharper days, old campaigners like him who can run all day as they age can still fit in major Grade I efforts like this like a glove.  He’s a justifiable co-favorite here, and his back class makes him tops among equals; watch out here.

State Of The Union [General Meeting-Gulchess, by Thunder Gulch] is a half-brother to juvenile sensation Toxicsuperfreakout, but a win here could give him top billing in that combo for darylucla2.  In five starts on dirt going long, he started off strong, with a pair of seconds in stakes races, but those were races in which he held his place without doing anything noteworthy: getting passed by faster closers while managing to outrun the fading speed—he held his position well, but made no further inroads.  His subsequent performances have seen him tail off, and a recent grass effort was more a training technique than a serious attempt to broaden his range.  That turf-to-dirt angle can bear fruit, and at 3, he’s got youth on his side, but he’s going to sit mid-pack with some modest speed in front and deep threats behind, and try to run three furlongs further than he ever had.  One expects him to blossom further at 4, and when the weather’s no longer frightful, and a fire stops being delightful, he should gain the necessary development to put it all together for future opportunities.

Party Music [Harlan’s Holiday-Spirit Tom, by Palace Music] shares the same bloodlines of a stakes-winning router for trainer cjt1, and what finer gift could be brought than a season-ending win on the DelPenn Champions Day card?  He’ll have to overcome an outside post and some recent middling performances to get the job done.  He closed hardcore to get second in an Illinois stakes two back, but has struggled noticeably against his graded compatriots all year, exemplified by an eighth last out in the Victory Marathon, a Grade III.  He owns some modest recent figs in the mid-90s, and has only broken 100 once, in his last win six back in a Wyoming race against other sophomores, and will need a similar closing dash here to help his cause.  He prefers to be further from the front than he has been lately, and if he’s not, it’s a little less likely to be a holly jolly Christmas season.  Like the others of his generation in the field, the potential and ability are there, but as time goes on, the picture will become clearer regarding future prospects at this level and distance

My selections:

1. Casual Connection
2. High Five II
3. Galloping Ghost
4. Especially
5. Royal Forty Indy

Good luck to all, happy racing, happy holidays, and peace on earth, and not necessarily in that order.