The Dangerous Reward

It didn’t quite end up being another Breeder’s Bowl, but DelPenn’s $500,000 Grade I Dangerous Reward Handicap for 2 year old fillies at seven eights of a mile has turned out to be a very interesting race to handicap, with fillies like Arrogance hoping to regain former glory and fillies like Wango Tango who hope to show continued improvement.

I’m about the easiest handicapper to beat.  How will you do here?

Here is a look at the field:

1. On the rail is Giggly Girl (Housebuster x Coastal) from the Bombsaway (11%) stable.  She is three for four, but has only hit the low 80’s in her speed figures.  Plenty of room to improve.  Bombsaway made this a last minute entry, apparently believing that Giggly has a good shot against this field.

2. Silly Mid Off (Flying Spur x Damascus) won The Lever in the Heirs Handicap against a small field in her fifth start.  Now making her tenth start for trainer CJT3 (10%), she has yet to threaten since.  Her other tries in graded company were not pretty.  Not today.

3. Zewango4 (19%) is a fairly new stable for the Zewango empire, and with horses like this, it’s off to a great start.  Wango Tango (Pine Bluff x Affirmed) is two for two, including a nice stalking win in The Rosey West Challenge Stakes, where she beat some promising fillies.  Would not be a surprise.

4. Lucky’s Brook Lynn (Kingmambo x Danzig) has already won over $120,000 and has finished in the money in all eight lifetime starts.  In her last start she earned a 92 speed figure, tied for best in the field, while winning The Bart’s Sum Special.  The MrLucky229 (20%) filly doesn’t seem to have any knocks.

5. When this race was carded many thought the Breeders Bowl runners might show up for a rematch here.  Well, the only one to show up is Rosette (Empire Maker x Kingmambo).  She was prominent early in the BB, but faded badly.  She has a better chance to last against this group for trainer Nathndtroi (7%).  The return to a one turn race should help as both of her wins and her one second came in sprints.  Don’t ignore.

6. Bourbon Alley (Dixieland Band x Damascus) is only the third highest money winner this year in BlackSwan’s (21%) stable.  The barn has taken in over $1,000,000 in 2005.  Very sharp Bourbon has won three of her last four races, including her last outing, The Mama Dance Stakes.  Speed figures, form, and connections make her dangerous here, and she is co-favored.

7. I’ve Met Barb (Empire Maker x Danzig) is the most accomplished two year old of Super30’s (18%) 10 two year olds.  She has a third in the Grade III Buckeye Debutante and is coming off a win in The Big M challenge.  She has more success in graded company than most in here.

8. Co-favorite Deseeker (Dehere x Seeking The Gold) matches Lucky’s Brook Lynn’s 92 speed figure, owns the second best earnings in the field, and has been in the money in all eight starts.  In fact, the only time she didn’t finish first or second was on a sloppy track.  Pace handicappers will appreciate her early pace style in a race that is not overloaded with early speed types.  The only knock on the RockRiver2 (11%) trainee might be her lack of graded experience.

9. Celebre Slap (Peintre Celebre x Dixie Brass) tried graded stakes on turf a couple times and ran to her long odds.  Irishman2 (11%) seasoned her with a couple allowance wins on dirt and tries stakes again here.  She should fare better here on this surface and this distance than she did in her other stake tries.  The two for two dirt record makes the 18-1 odds worth a second look.

10. Three S’s (Strong Hope x Our Storm (Storm Cat)) broke her maiden in her last, a four horse stakes in Hong Kong.  Bigrama (20%) is an excellent trainer and must know something that’s not apparent in the past performances to think she has a shot here.  I’m willing to be surprised.

11. Bbor (9%) only has three horses in his barn.  Regal is Bbor (Smokester x Olympio) has done well with three wins and five in-the-money finishes in seven starts.  She makes her stakes debut here and needs to run a better speed figure to have a chance here.  I’ll pass, but I’ll be rooting for her.

12. Six months ago, Arrogance (Real Quiet x Lord Well (Seattle Slew)) became one of only two fillies in the field to win a graded stakes when she won the Grade III Desert Filly Juvenile in Dubai.  Unfortunately, the Illbred (15%) trainee hasn’t been in the money since then.  To her credit, she has been running against some tough fields, she’s had some nice speed figures, and the return to a shorter distance may be the wakeup she needs. 

13. Top jockey J Benisz opts for the top rated filly: Miss Congeniality (Congaree x Tropical Smurf (Mr. Greely)).  It is not often you get 9-1 odds on a filly that is the top rated, gets the top jockey, has by far the top earnings, owns a graded win at the track with the same rider, and is unbeaten in five starts on the surface.  I haven’t picked a winner since back when you could find someone who would admit voting for George Bush.  Sorry to jinx you, Paddy (8%).

Morning line pick: 8-6-7

Timmn’s picks: 13-8-4