Is Bella Figura Ready For The ‘Big Time’?

The Breeders Bowl was held just two weeks ago over the New York turf course, and Turning Japanese walked off with the win in that million-dollar race.  But, much as in racing outside the Sim, the racing season doesn’t end with the biggest day in racing.  There’s always graded racing to be had, all over the place.  And New York is no exception.  Though the Breeders Bowl was just held two weeks ago, grass racing continues over the Gotham lawn, and this weekend, one very talented filly who missed out on the Breeders Bowl looks for a big payday, in the $200,000 Big Time Handicap, a Grade II event over ten furlongs on the grass.

It’s a compact field for a Grade II in the Sim, as only six are going to the gate.  But the clear favorites may have scared a few contenders off.  Bella Figura is even-money on the morning line, and she’s the 9^th-ranked older grass filly in the Sim.  Light Spectrum(GB) is ranked 45^th, but captured a Grade III over this surface just two weeks ago.  These two are the main threats, and there are three other fillies and mares with stakes wins/experience under their belts, including eight-year-old Grade I-winner Mother Lois.  Despite the compact field, and even though the BB has already become a part of Sim history, this race figures to propel one of these fillies higher into the big time.

Bella Figura [Kingmambo-Unbridled Slew, by Seattle Slew] draws the hedge for sgtbones, and she’s a deep-threat closer who should be charging down the stretch late.  She was about fifteen lengths from the lead last out, in the Grade II Milky Way, but rallied wide and kicked hard to get up by a long neck.  Her 2005 campaign has truly seen her soar, beautifully, with only one race where she was out of the money.  She hasn’t quite been facing the best of the division constantly—her most notable result against 2005’s BB Turf Distaff entries was a fourth in July behind Turning Japanese—but when she has been running, she’s been NBC: nothing but constant.   She is right now where her full sister, talented Grade II-winner Sotto Voce, would love to be next year, and that is “on a roll”.  Her numbers average in the mid-100s, which justifies her favoritism here, and and on form, she’s hard to deny.  However, it will be very curious to see what kind of pace is set here, because based on recent form, only Sweet Sunshyne(IRE) figures to want a part of the lead.  If that one gets loose, all bets might be off, but it would appear only the lack of sharp early speed could compromise her chances here.

Mother Lois [Forty Niner x Sportin’ Life] is a true veteran, an eight-year-old mare with two graded wins among her 66 starts coming into this race.  Last year, at 7, she managed to capture both the Grade I Jack The Man and the Grade II Spankie-Sho All Comers in Japan, proving that she still has it.  As handled by trainer pup, her 2004 campaign, after a long period of time in which she remained very lightly raced (five starts at 3, six starts at 4, five starts at 5), was very successful, as she went to the front and stalked the pace constantly.  Her figures were always strong (mid-100s) and she hit the board with regularity.  But towards the end of ’04, she tailed off form, and hasn’t quite regained her best stride.  She was eighth in last year’s BB Turf Distaff, eased in a subsequent New Jersey stakes, and seventh in the Grade I Pennsylvania Distaff after the BB; this year, no wins, though she’s Grade II-placed and has hit the board in five of thirteen starts, and her numbers have tailed off…well, big time, falling more frequently into the 80s and low 90s since the start of the year.  Here, she should be in full-on stalking mode, but a complete reversal of 2005 form is likely going to be needed if she’s to add to her résumé here.

Sweet Sunshyne(IRE) [Theatrical(IRE) x Manila] represents 375stud, and it is expected that in this mile-and-a-quarter test, she’ll be on the lead, as she has been much of her career.  She’s won from a mile to fourteen furlongs, and most of those have been as the main speed, and depending on her approach in this small field, it’s possible she could adjust the pace to try and steal this race.  There are a couple of stalkers here, and her preference is to be on the lead going longer, so her chances improved when the entry box only brought six to face the starter.  She’s got good form for the year, with only her last start being out of the money.  On the downside, she’s wheeled back in this spot on two weeks of rest, and her last in Japan had her backpedaling through the field from the start.  Her results are consistent, but her numbers have fallen back into the mid-90s.  And her two previous tries against graded competition have been good (a third and a fourth), but not good enough to run with the best in the division.  She’s got a strong tactic here, but will it be enough to reverse her recent troubles?  It’s in the air.

Aztec Torpedo [Alzao x Royal Al], has been incredibly consistent this year.  How much so?  Since she made her turf debut back on February 19, she’s not finished out of the money.  Not once—in fourteen straight grass starts since then.  She was claimed by globalsim on that date for $13,500, and since then she’s had an eight-race winning streak, has a stakes win, and was second in three other stakes tries.  She’s improved her numbers as the year’s gone on, though they still fall a bit short of the best the favorites here have been hitting all year.  And she’s got an ideal running style, here—rating enough to make a move late, but not becoming a deep threat.  She’s evolved into quite the good turf runner, and that form might continue in 2006.  Her recent momentum aside, this is her graded debut, and she too will need to toss in a career-best effort to have a say in the proceedings.

Light Spectrum(GB) [Diesis(gb) x Habitat], light schedule.  This blaster2 trainee has only five starts this year, but four of those were wins.  In fact, she’s won six of her last seven starts, dating all the way back to last November, and her form has stayed steady and strong ever since.  She won the Grade III Bickerknocker last out three weeks ago over this course, and did so with an easy, inside trip spent stalking the pace.  A repeat performance of that effort puts her in good standing here, as there’s not a whole lot of pace to follow.  At her best, her numbers bump up against the 110 barrier, and it’s really hard not to like a filly that hasn’t finished out of the money against her own gender since July 2003.  The pace scenario favors her narrowly over Bella Figura, even though that one has more experience this year, with more consistent results at this graded level.  She’s primed for her best here, proved she’s not caught up on the front end; truly a toss-up.

Ilovetheflowergirl [Java Gold x Our Native] comes into this off a win at the $30k claiming level in Puerto Rico, where she had been claimed by betdahouse.  She’s come into her own late this year, with four wins in a row…at claiming level.  In fact she’s been so successful…at claiming level…that she’s been claimed four times in eight starts for a tag…at claiming level.  At the risk of being a little too subtle, this is her first try at graded level, as well as her stakes debut, and it’s a really tough spot to try that after so much success at other levels of competition.  Her 13-1 odds belie the fact that her numbers don’t measure up to the others in the field, with her best number in the last couple of months on the grass being a 91 two starts back.  She prefers coming from well off the pace, and has never run at 10 furlongs on the grass before.  On form, it can be said that she’s more likely to prefer miles to anything much longer than that, and she made a pretty good filly, in the claiming ranks.  One day she might be solid enough to compete with the very best, but she’ll have to be ultra sharp to succeed here.

My selections:

1. Light Spectrum(GB)
2. Bella Figura
3. Sweet Sunshyne(IRE)
4. Aztec Torpedo
5. Mother Lois
6. Ilovetheflowergirl

Good luck, and happy racing.