Will Van Halen be Runnin’ With the Devil?

In a visit to the official web site for the rock band Van Halen, I discovered they are excited about their plans to release a “Live Without A Net” DVD on September 14^th, 2004.  Hmm.

At least the Sim horse with the same name has been busier than the band’s webmaster.  Van Halen (the horse, not the band) will take on a full field in Saturday’s $250,000 Grade II It’s All Your Fault Stakes, a one mile affair for three year olds and up on what should be a fast dirt track.

Let’s get right to the runners.

1. Leave the Reef (4 yo c, Deputy Minister x Mill Reef) is making his 15^th start of the year.  The CJT (8%) trained colt had five wins in the first half of the year, including some graded wins, but he hasn’t won in the last five months.  He qualified for the Breeders Bowl Classic and CJT couldn’t resist entering him, and he did get to see some nice runners in front of him.  He still has the points to be ranked seventh in the world, but he is running like he would appreciate some time off.

2. Arterra (15%) has provided a clinic on training with his handling of Silver Victory (4 yo c, Silver Ghost x Whipped Boot (Cool Victor)).  Silver Victory had three victories and was stakes placed as a two year old.  He picked up a couple stakes wins as a three year old, but mostly the trainer used the campaign to find the colts preference.  Having decided it was for eight furlongs on the dirt, he was ready for the four year old season.  Arterra entered the colt in seven eight furlong dirt races (all wins), and one early 8 ½ furlong try (a loss).  The dark grey colt is razor sharp and brimming with confidence.  His last win was The Tuck’s Prospector’s Stakes, where he beat a couple others in here.  Silver Victory can win from the lead or from just off. 

3. I’m not sure why trainer KWSWPS2 (18%) kept the number four rated Van Halen (4 yo c, Sadler’s Wells x Houston Mount (Mountain Cat)) out of the Breeders Bowl.  Presumably the nearly four month layoff preceding his last race had something to do with it.  Van Halen’s numbers dwarf the field’s.  In seven starts this year he has finished first or second seven times, including five graded stakes.  In five of those seven races his speed figures have surpassed 110.  To top that off, he draws top jockey F Duffy.  He likes to sit just off the pace and take them in the stretch.

4. Boy on a Mission (IRE) (5 yo h, Fasliyev x Desert Secret) owns four stakes wins and makes his third attempt at graded stakes today, where he has yet to cash a check  The DrTurf (11%) trainee shortens up a bit for this.  He will be running late and there are several in here he should be passing, but it would be a surprise to ee him get more than a minor award.

5. Dashing Dooter (4 yo c, Distorted Humor x Mr. Untouchable (Dare and Go)) has run out of allowance conditions, having won five of his twenty races and a NW2t last time, so Cut999 (15%) tries him here in his stakes debut.  There have been tougher Grade II fields, so this makes as much sense as a nongraded stakes, but his speed figures would indicate he needs to show a lot of improvement to compete here.

6. Winless in his last 16 starts, Danzig With Buda (4 yo c, Danzig x Nijinsky II) looks like he might be competitive here.  The JuJu (17%) trainee has run 100+ speed figures in 17 of 24 races since turning three.  He hasn’t won in fifteen months, and he showed little in the Middle Ground Mile against a couple in here, but he should stay in contention here and may pick up a minor piece.

7. Izzo’s Revenge (3yo c, Hansel x Strike the Gold) was an outstanding two year old, ending that campaign with a triple digit speed figure second in the Grade I Movieland Futurity.  Today he makes his thirteenth three year old start for the TBassett (9%) stable.  His one win this year was eight months ago and that was his only 100+ speed figure of the year.  Late charger will be looking for tired ones to pass.

8. What’s the next number in this sequence: 114, 97, 106, 97, 112, 103, 113, 94, 105, 36, 112? If you detect an alternating pattern, welcome to TheMatrix’s (14%) world.  Those are the speed figures for Exbourne’s World (5 yo h, Spinning World x  Tired Nijinsky (Hennessy)), and if you can guess the next one, you can probably predict this race correctly.  If he can finally pair up good efforts, he looks like an outstanding value at 10-1.

9. Raider Property  (4 yo c, Belong to Me x Miss Breeze (Kingmambo)) finished seventh behind Silver Victory in his last outing.  Not long ago, he ran off a streak of five wins in seven stakes starts for Penamacor2 (13%).  A proven ability to run triple digit speed figures makes him dangerous here.

10. Also coming out of that Silver Victory race is The Golden Nugget (4 yo c, Forty Niner x Jupiter Hunt (Touch Gold)).  The CoxPlate (11%) trainee finished a hard charging third in that race, continuing a streak where he has been in the money five straight times.  He owns a graded win from early in his three year old campaign and can’t be ignored here.

11. While the track handicapper has made Hilljacker (5 yo h, Broad Brush x Old En La Gold (Capote)) the longest shot in the field, trainer RoyDBoy (9%) found something he liked here as he just made the deadline in entering his charge here.  After 40 starts, Hilljacker makes his stakes debut here.  He is hard to predict and will occasionally, like last time, come from nowhere to run an outstanding race.  I am willing to be surprised if he does that today.

12. Robert the Bruce (5 yo h, Mt. Livermore x Roberto) appeared overmatched in has last one (or maybe two), but nicely won a graded stakes at today’s distance three back.  There is a real dearth of early speed in this, so the Dioscuri (14%) trainee looks like a standout value at 21-1.  He has a real chance to steal this wire to wire.

13. Stereotypical Cat (3 yo c, Tale of the Cat x Broad Brush) has finished in the money in 12 of his 15 starts this year for TheLeague (10%) stable.  His last start showed a fondness for the eight furlong distance and the ability to run a speed figure that competes with all of these.

14. On the outside, Holiday Hostage (6 yo h, Robellino x Palace Music) hasn’t finished out of the money in six months.  His recent victory in the Grade II Middle Ground Mile showed dominance over Robert the Bruce and Danzig With Budda.  Ten of his 16 wins have come at this distance and suface.  The IDStable has won 18%of its starts.

Morning line picks: 3-2-10-14

Timmn’s picks: 3-2- 8-9

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