General’s Chariot Favored Vs. Older Opponents In The Scrape The Barnacles You Alky Special Stakes (G1)
The racing gods have decreed that there is to be no Breeders’ Bowl race for turf sprinters, but here in New York, they missed the memo, and the best in the division have converged on the Scrape The Barnacles You Alky Special Stakes, a G1 over 6 furlongs on turf for $500,000 as the able fill-in for a Breeders’ Bowl race. Three year old General’s Chariot looks to stake his claim as the best turf sprinter around regardless of years, while Danzig On Skis and 12 others look to knock off the big horse. Let’s take a look at the field:
The Scrape The Barnacles You Alky Special Stakes
Grade I
Six furlongs
Firm Turf
$500,000
All horses, 3 years old and up
PP | Horse ID | Horse | Owner | Jockey | Odds | Comments |
1 | TIGER NATION(IRE) | 10/1 | The orange and black of a tiger is appropriate for this Halloween weekend, and this guy comes in ranked as the #2 older horse in the nation behind Danzig With Skis. His most important recent achievement was a G1win in the G.S.R. Sprint, and while he flopped in his next race, he’s gone 3: 2-1-0 in his next three, and rides a two race win streak, albeit against lesser company, into this race. He’s obviously a classy runner and offers fantastic value, especially if the pace is hot. | |||
2 | OFFSTAGE(GB) | 20/1 | Pardon this colt’s efforts at a mile or above, and he’s only been off the board once. That said, it takes a special three year old to handle these types of older horses, and this one may be a year of maturity short of competing at this level. Look for him to make the jump to an elite level sometime next year, but he’ll be hard pressed to make an impact in this one. | |||
3 | MAGPIE IN THE SAND | 10/1 | The 12th ranked older horse, his closing kick has carried him to five wins in his last eight starts, including a G2 win over 5 furlongs last time out, where he came from the back of the pack to score a narrow win. He was only third to General’s Chariot in the Cane Toad Stakes (G2) several starts back, however, and needs to move forward significantly to beat the big horses in this one. | |||
4 | IN THE EVENING | 8/1 | May have had some physical problems after the wheels came off in the Prince’s Knight Stakes (G1) last time out, which was a full nine weeks ago, and while this one seems to be back on the surface he most enjoys, it’s a lot to ask of a three year old, even the 3rd ranked 3 year old over a turf sprint, to come back from a nine week layoff against this competition. Pass on him here, as he probably needs the race. Had he time for one prep, he’d be dangerous, but this looks to be asking too much of a talented colt. | |||
5 | KIKI’S SOLID ROCK | 8/1 | The two sons of Forty Niner break next to each other with identical odds, and this one is still trying to find himself after a seemingly random seven-month layoff. He’s gone 4: 1-1-1 in his starts since returning, including a G2 triumph over 5 furlongs and a 2nd in a G1 over a flat mile, which may have been too long for this one. He disappointed on dirt going long in his last try, but back on the turf, he may be overlooked but is certainly extremely dangerous; fresh legs can’t be underestimated at this point in the season, especially considering the campaigns some of the others have seen. | |||
6 | GENERAL’S CHARIOT | 6/1 | The #1 ranked 3yo colt in the division, he makes his 9th start of the year here, and with a perfect record over a sprint distance, including his last two straight, this race is his to loose. Stretched out earlier this year in an attempt to take down some of the traditional 8 furlong classic races, he acquitted himself well but not spectacularly, and looks to be back in his element over six panels. You can’t reasonably hope to beat this horse unless he beats himself, which seems unlikely, especially given that, if anything, he’s getting better with maturity: He’s averaged a blistering 108 speed figure over his last four races, hitting a 110 his last time out. The most his opponents can hope for here is that he bounces from that effort, but even a mild regression puts him on top here. | |||
7 | SINUS TRACT | 9/1 | The #4 ranked older turf sprinter, he broke a five-race losing streak with a strong victory in an ungraded stakes last time out, and makes his return to elite competition in a tough spot. He can’t be overlooked, but he’ll need a very strong pace and a great trip if he’s to pick up a piece of this one. A 25% jock will help his cause. | |||
8 | BLOOD PLUM | 18/1 | If it were any other day, this colt would appeal as a dark-horse selection, but he looks like he’s in over his head here. Lacks the experience at the graded level that he needs to propel him into contention here. | |||
9 | 7/1 | Capped off a four race winning streak with the Rising Sun Spring Cup (G1) over 7 furlongs with a 113 speed figure, but while maintaining the #1 ranking in the older horse division, he’s gone backwards since then, going 3: 0-0-1. His speed numbers suggest that he’s not all that far off of where he was, however, and he doesn’t need much of an improvement to land squarely in contention. He’s also been off since week 2594 (like In The Evening), but as a five year old, he seems better equipped to run well first start back. | ||||
10 | XTREMELY TODAY | 13/1 | This one takes after his grandsire, Kingmambo, who was a talented turf miler, even though this one’s sire, Lemon Drop Kid, was at his best at 1 ¼ + on the dirt. His last two races put him right in the mix speed figure wise, but he must answer whether he’s capable of running with horses of this class. Oddsmakers think not, but this one looks like one too nice to leave out of the exotics entirely. | |||
11 | DIGGING THE GRAVE | 9/1 | After a long day of writing about turf marathoners (See the Breeders’ Bowl Turf Article), its strange to see a horse beaten only 3 ¼ lengths finish 11th, but this one pulled it off last time out. He’s one-dimensional, and he’ll be on the engine every step of the way, playing catch-me-if-you-can, but unless he finds whatever magic touch he seems to have lost recently, the big horses in this field can and will catch him. | |||
12 | MIRROR IMAGE | 11/1 | Three year old by Mt. Livermore has won half of his starts, including his last out, but may be better over the 7 furlong trip than he is over this 6 furlong distance. Even as closing sprinters go, this one sits further back than most, and while he should be running through the stretch, he’ll likely run out of ground. | |||
13 | DRUNKEN LULLABIES(IRE) | 16/1 | 5th ranked 3yo turf sprinter found General’s Chariot just a little bit too tough last time out, and the field is deeper today, but I’m not sure 16/1 is fair on this horse, especially given the horses sitting between 8/1 and 10/1. If anyone is going to upset the top two here, this one has as good a shot as any of pulling it off. Put some money down on this one across the board and hope he runs back to the 107 that he flashed last time. On a different note, I’m at a loss to understand how one run at 12 furlongs sandwiched around two 7 furlong runs does anything to further a horse’s career. No matter, it seems not to have negatively affected him. | |||
14 | BELORADO | 10/1 | The 8th ranked older turf sprinter still has a bad taste in his mouth from the last time he saw General’s Chariot (Belorado finished 4th in the Cane Toad), and a 2nd in a minor stake last time out isn’t encouraging. He needs to run between 5 and 10 points better than he’s been running if he’s to win this one, and I’m not anticipating that he’s got room for quite that large a jump. |