Can Looking Back Help Us See Forward?
In another racing universe, we might start handicapping a major race by looking at similar races at that track and distance and look for patterns. For example at another track someplace offering a card featuring the most important races of the year, we might note that, according to a popular past performance publisher, stakes races on the turf at a mile are most often won by horses coming from post positions three through seven that are able to come from just off the pace or from well off the pace provided they make their move fairly early.
Generalizations from that publication are easy for them to make – they have the data on all the races from all the tracks.
For us, it’s a bit more difficult. For one thing, we postulate that post position makes no difference, and in fact that the venue makes no difference. We might be wrong in these assumptions, but that’s where we are starting.
So, the thing to do is to look at mile turf races at all tracks. But which races? I think it is safe to say we should only look at stakes races, but not, I think, even all stakes races.
Now, I am a bad trainer. Momma said your winning percentage should always be greater than your shoe size, and my feet are apparently much too big. So I can only imagine the thinking that goes into entering horses like we have here today into their races, but here’s what I bet happens. Say it’s a typical weekend and you have a top ten horse and two graded stakes at the right surface and distance to choose from. If one of the stakes already attracted two or three of the other top ten horses, wouldn’t you be drawn toward the other stakes? Or suppose your horse wasn’t quite at top form, and the race you wanted was already filled with top quality horses, wouldn’t you look for softer competition or perhaps skip the weekend altogether? I think I would. Look through the past performances and see how often, or seldom, these top horses have faced each other.
The Breeder’s Bowl is different. If you have a small chance of winning, you’d still enter – it’s still a chance. The bragging rights. The pride. I bet many would be willing to live with my winning percentage if they could say they won this race. No avoiding other horses because they make be as strong as yours or because yours may be a little off. No, these races are different, so we won’t look at all stakes races; we will only look at the past six Breeders Bowl Miles. Only Breeders’ Bowl Miles, because their uniqueness and only the past six because of our short history.
Before we do, I have to shudder a bit. I have some training in statistics, and to make, with any confidence, any conclusion based on a sample of size six is laughable. But we do that all the time in handicapping. After the first two races on a card are won wire to wire, don’t we look for early speed the rest of the card? If a trainer has won four of her last six, don’t we give special consideration to her next entry? I know I do.
So, for what it is worth, here is the recent history of the Breeders Bowl Mile.
In 1999, the winner was a horse named Foggy A.P. (A.P.Indy x Riverman). Foggy was six years old, and entered the race off a second in a Grade 3 race. He had four wins and four seconds in his eight prior starts, and was the second choice in the betting at 5-1. His running style prior to the race had been as an Early/Presser; however he came from well back that day. His trainer, Crisis, is still in the game, but trains only one horse. Foggy’s speed figure in the race prior to the Breeder Bowl was 113, and his lifetime best was 127.
The favorite in 1999 was named Enough Knock. He wasn’t done.
In 2000, seven year old Huge Tale (Nureyev x Robellina) wired the field. He had finished second in a Grade 3 in his previous race with a speed figure of 101. His lifetime best had been 124. He had tried the Breeders Bowl Turf the previous year and led from gate to top of the stretch, when he faded to sixth. His running style would have been classified Early/Presser. Huge Tale went off at 7-1 odds, the third choice in the betting. Trainer TFV is still active and still winning at a 23% clip.
In 2001, Enough Knock (Sadler’s Wells x Mill Reef) came back to wire the field. He had been a disappointing favorite in the Mile two years previous and a disappointing favorite in the Turf in 2000. This time, as fourth choice at 9-1, he got it done. In his previous race he had a 117 speed figure while winning a nongraded stakes. His lifetime best had been 120. His running style would have been either Early or Early/Presser. Trainer Win is still doing well with a five horse stable. In 2001, by the way, the Breeders Bowl was held in
In 2002, the freakish Storm Dog (Storm Cat x Fappiano) was the surprise winner at 13-1, eighth choice in the betting. Storm Dog was a three year old filly taking on older males. She had won eight of her previous nine races, and entered this race off a 108 speed figure win of a Grade 1 race for three year old fillies. Her Previous best had been 117. She won in her typical come from behind style. She was classified as a Sustained-style filly. Trainer AmandaS still trains two of Storm Dog’s babies, and still wins at a 20% rate.
In 2003, Storm Dog wasn’t fooling anyone and repeated as the favorite this time. Her previous race was a career tying high speed figure 120 win in a Grade 1 race. She came into this race winning six of her previous seven races.
By 2004, Storm Dog was retired, and the winner was La Groom’s Wood (Woodman x Blushing Groom). La Groom’s Wood, fourth choice in the betting at 7-1, was five years old and entered the race off a win in a Grade 2 race. In fact he came in with a four race win streak and a career best 120 speed figure. He had an Early/Pressing style, performing best when he could come from just off the lead. Trainer Victorious retired La Groom’s Wood early to breed. Victorious wins at a 26% rate.
In statistics, a datum that doesn’t fit the pattern is called an outlier. Storm Dog is one hell of an outlier. She was a different age, a different gender, had a different running style, and went off at longer odds than the other winners. If we want typical we should look anywhere but at Storm Dog. Ignore her races and it seems clear what we should be looking for: a horse five to seven years old male, coming off a first or second in a stakes race, an Early/Presser running style, a career best speed figure of at least 120. As far as odds, we will prefer to be in the top five selections.
Let’s look at our entries:
- On the Rail is Dreaming of Lauren (4 yo c, Lear Fan x Theatrical). Fifteen months ago Dreaming began a string of four victories, culminating in a dominating win early this year in the Grade 3 Marcos Footware. His other win this year was three back in the Grade 1 Turf Invader Stakes.
Trainer CapnCoke (13%) is not fazed by the 13-1 odds. Dreaming’s two graded wins came at similar odds. Dreaming comes from well off the pace and will be running late here. His last race was a rallying second in the Grade 3 Brown Fields Handicap, where he finished ahead of Leven Seventy Won. His figure was a 105, and his lifetime best is 115. He also beat Xtremely a Fan, Jacques, and Tern of the Wheel in the Grade 1 Turf Invaders Stakes.
On the down side, he seems to prefer slightly longer, and his last half dozen
races have a pattern of good race/bad race. And last race was good.
Dizzie comes in from a fourth in the Grade 2 Walnut Breeders Bowl Mile, where he could not get the lead and faded a bit in the stretch. Dizzie’s style is to run early. In all nine of his wins, he has been on the lead or less than a length behind the leader all the way. Jockey N Bonus (opting for this one over family trained Manifest Destiny) will be charged with getting that lead. Dizzie’s figure in the last was 102, and his lifetime best was 112.
You sometimes hear that good two year olds are never good after that. Dizzie was three for three as a two year old, seven for 13 as a three year old, and five for nine so far this year. Dizzie has won eight stakes, three of them graded since turning three.
- Niner Connection (3 yo c, Forty Niner x Zig Zag Connection (
His last win came in the Grade 1 2000
Hanging around the leaders and not fading has helped Niner Connection to become a great money earner, averaging almost $100,000 per race, but he is rewarding the exotics players more than the win bettors. This year he has six third places in ten starts.
- Of all the great jockeys in town today, the highest percentage one is H Harzheim, who flew in from Dubai to ride Jolie’s Song (4 yo f, Buddha x Belong to Me). Jolie’s Song is the number one rated older female horse at the distance. Running against males is nothing new for her; her last nine races have all been against males. In those nine races, she has a win, three seconds and three thirds. Catspaw has been pointing for this race for her filly since late last year, and her main goal was to get Jolie’s Song in the race and in form. Jolie’s Song may not win, but she surely has shown she can run with the boys.
Jolie’s Song was most successful as a three year old, when she won eight of twelve races, all against females and mostly sprints. Seven of those eight wins were stakes. Her best running style is to make a late bid, as in her last win when she came from last to first to capture the Grade 2 Buddy Boy Mile in
Jolie’s Song’s last race was a disappointing, but even, tenth to Xtremely a Fan in the Grade 2 Utah Breeders Bowl Mile. Her Speed figure was 100, and her lifetime best is 118.
- Tern of the Wheel (4 yo c, Wheelaway x Smarten) ran his first twenty races on the dirt, and his last nine on the turf for trainer Knowlton (20%). Tern is coming here off a win in the ungraded Light Magazine Special, where, as the favorite, he posted a 102 speed figure. His lifetime best is 113 on the turf, 116 on the dirt.
This year he has won the Grade 2 Hallelujah Turf Cup and the Grade 1 Explosive Bet Stakes. He is definitely a sustained pace style horse, always over seven lengths behind by the second call.
Tern of the Wheel has finished behind Xtremely a Fan a couple times: the Grade 1 Turf Invaders and the Grade 1 Cash Reserve Stakes.
- The Dmitri (13%) stable’s Jacques (4 yo c, Danehill x Miswaki) is the highest earner in the all the Hollandia stables.
As a two year old, Jacques popped a 96 speed figure, giving rookie jockey M Sheridan his first stakes win. “That’s when I knew he had class,” said owner Yochem.
Jacques had a couple wins early and a couple wins late in his three year old season, but overall it didn’t live up to the promise he showed as a juvenile. “So I gave him some time off to mature. And I don’t regret it,” said Yochem.
The highlight of the four year old season was a win in
Jacques comes into this race off a third in the Grade 1 Ark de Triumph, where he earned a 92 speed figure. The try at 12 furlongs was an experiment, according to Yochem, and not a successful one. So it’s back to eight furlongs today, where “when he has his day, not many can hold him in the last couple of furlongs.”
He surely can win, but in
- I Am Scheming (4 yo c, Dixie Union x Crabby Niner (Forty Niner)) finished 2 ½ lengths behind Mizzen Dizzie in his last race, but won the Grade 2 FiveStarNick Handicap the race before that.
The Kaif011 (13%) trained colt hasn’t run a speed figure under 100 in nine races. Such consistency has earned him the number three ranking in his class. Last race he earned a 102 speed figure, and his lifetime best is 111. I am scheming has won four stakes, two of them graded.
His running style would be classified as pressing or sustained. Let’s go with pressing. He comes from off the pace but in his good races he doesn’t fall nearly as far back as many in here do.
The question we have is: in the pick six competition Kaif sponsors, did he single this one?
- Echoes (4 yo c,
Earlier this year did just that, winning consecutive Grade 1 miles with dramatic stretch runs and beating Jolie’s Song, Xtremely a Fan, and Deaming of Lauren and posting a lifetime best 115 speed figure.
Since those races, Gallorette had a hard time finding mile races that fit Echoes’ form cycle, and the longer races he was in just seem to discourage the colt. Then he was eased last time, 12 weeks ago with an injury. It’s anybody’s guess just which Echoes will show up in this race.
- Nextbonus’s Tigerman Stables (16%) trains Manifest Destiny (3 yo c, Storm Cat x Stardust Miracle (Fusaichi Pegasus)). Destiny won his first six turf races and seven of his first eight before throwing a couple clunkers. His return to a mile last time was rewarded with a thrilling win in the Grade 1 Mospe Cup where he earned a 108 speed figure and trounced Niner Connection by some 20 lengths.
“It was a big effort. I hope he doesn’t bounce,” worried Nextbonus. A bounce seems unlikely as the 108 was not a lifetime best. Destiny has run another 108 and a 110.
Destiny has a pressing style, usually staying within five lengths of the lead before beginning his rally.
- Leven Seventy Won (6 yo h, Danehill x Gulch) is the veteran in the race, with 41 lifetime starts and 13 wins. Leven started the year for Skids (19%) with four straight stakes wins, but he has been out of the money his last three.
He has seldom strung together four bad races and is eligible to snap back into good form for his talented trainer.
Leven has a sustained running style and a lifetime best (and field best) turf speed figure of 119.
- Estrogen (4 yo f, Sadler’s Wells x Blazing Rusty (Pientre Celebre)) usually runs on the dirt, and usually runs longer than this, but her last two turf races were Grade 1 wins, including the Movieland Turf Cup against the boys. Her last two mile races were…well, she’s never run an 8 furlong race.
Estrogen will be on or near the lead for trainer TNilsson (14%). It’s interesting that TNilsson chose this race, as Estrogen would have qualified for two Breeders Bowl distaff races.
Her speed figure in the last race was a 102 and her lifetime best figure was 111 (on the dirt). Look for Mizzen Dizzie and Estrogen to battle for the lead early.
- Winner of nearly $2,000,000, Xtremely a Fan (4 yo c, A.P. Indy x Kris S.) is installed as a 5-1 favorite and has a lot of things going for him. First of all, he is rated number one in the division among older males. Secondly, his connections are more than sound. The EJDStable wins 27% of its races. Thirdly, he enters this race in top form. In his last three races, Xtremely a Fan has defeated Mizzen Drizzie, Jolie’s Song (three times), Leven Seventy Won, Niner Connection, and
In his last race, he blew away the field in the Grade 2 Utah Breeders Bowl Mile by almost four lengths, and ran a 111 speed figure. His top figure of 113 came five months ago in winning the Grade 3 Kasuda Yinen Mile.
His running style is usually sustained, and he simply loves the distance. Five of his six wins have been at eight furlongs, and the other win was at 8 ½. He has not been out of the money in six months.
- Dubeye (3 yo c, Dubai Destination x Daneye (Danehill)) needed another horse to make a last minute scratch in order to draw into this race. Trainer Paceman2 (19%) is hoping for a couple more lucky breaks.
Dubeye has won seven of his 19 starts, though he has finished out of the money in his last three races. In his last race, he never got going and finished tenth in the Grade 3 Haw Haw Derby, posting a 92 speed figure. His best race came 15 weeks ago when he won the Grade 1 Newmarket Rivalry with a speed figure of 109, beating both Manifest Destiny and Niner Connection.
His best runs have come using a sustained running style, and the eight furlong distance is probably his best.
So who will win? After looking at past winners we should narrow the choices by only considering those that finished first or second in a stakes in their last race: Dreaming of Lauren, Tern of the Wheel, Manifest Destiny,
Of those horses only
Next, we prefer older male horses.
Lastly we want a running style where our horse is never too far from the lead.
timmn@hotmail.com