NWRC Cavalcade Cup – Juvenile Filly Turf
The annual highlight for the NWRC Residency is the Cavalcade Cup. This year’s edition of the NWRC Cavalcade Cup Juvenile Filly Turf has attracted a strong field of 13, an auspicious number on Hallows’ Eve. Here in Washington, the sky may be grey, but the weather is comfortable, and the turf course a brilliant and lush emerald green. The course is rated firm, the distance 1 1/16 miles, and the purse a rich $250,000. It is a barometer of the depth of this field when the morning line favorite is “only” 7/2. That horse would be the appropriately named Leader of the Pack. This royally bred (Theatrical x Mr. Prospector) cjk homebred makes her long awaited turf debut this weekend, after having had a successful start to her career on the main track. The tall, chocolate hued miss has won only two of six starts on that surface, but can boast of a stakes win in the Blue Roll Stakes, and a second in the Tiger Wells, with an 82 SF. The punch she showed in shorter races didn’t quite carry over to her two routing attempts, which raises a question mark here. Still, _ if _ she proves to be better on the lawn than she was on the dirt, she’ll be really nice, and tough to beat.
Next on the morning line, at 5/1 is zoshka’s Modena, who is another with a very turfy pedigree, by Woodman out of a Northern Dancer mare. Like Leader, Modena began her career on the dirt, and while she was a game second in her debut in the slop (79 SF), she couldn’t quite duplicate that effort in two starts over a fast track. Switched to the lawn last out, she steadily closed throughout the race after dropping back early, and scored by 1 ¾ lengths over this Washington course, earning a 79 SF. Takes a class hike here, but the extra 1/16th should prove to be no problem, and it wouldn’t take much of an improvement, speed-wise, to see her get win number two in short order. Just to Modena’s inside is Blackeyed Peace (as a side note, I absolutely love that name!), a wonderfully named daughter of sim freshman sire Peace Rules, out of a Sadler’s Wells mare. The slipknot22 homebred has won half of her six starts, including two of four over the turf. She has some of the best speed figures in this race, and she’s been competing against some tough fillies, winning the Danarazi at 7 ½ furlongs over a yielding turf course (74 SF), then a game fourth after battling for the lead most of the way in the Grade 2 More Glare Stakes (81 SF). Last time, she was beaten to fifth in a better than it looked performance, putting up an 80 SF. Gets Washington’s leading rider in Simien, and he should be able to harness her fractious energy. If she gets loose on the lead, look out, and with her proven ability against stakes competition, 6/1 is probably more generous odds than she warrants.
One filly with proven routing ability is ladyeve2’s Ravishing Russkie. The filly has withstood a busy juvenile campaign – this will be her ninth career start – finishing off the board only once in eight previous tries. Her best two races have come since her connections made the decision to switch her to the turf. After getting outheaded in a race long duel for the lead, the Russkie romped home first in a California allowance (81 SF). She won’t get an easy five length lead against this bunch, but she likes the distance, and her turf speed figures place her as one of the main contenders to be battling to the wire. At 7/1, a must-include in any exotic wager, and has an excellent chance to earn her first stakes win, after placing in a pair of dirt sprint stakes earlier this year. Parked on the outside, in post position 13, is heythere’s Impossible Project(IRE). Her sire, Not Impossible, is one of those underrated sires that is capable of tossing nice runners, and this young lady might be the most recent in that line. Of course, it doesn’t hurt that her dam has already produced one stakes winner in Black Projection, who won a sprint stakes early last year, but has spent most of this year on the sidelines. The powerfully built filly showed no affinity for the dirt in her debut, but quickly made amends when switched to the lawn, finishing second in an allowance, before breaking her maiden in the Esteem Double Stakes in Montana. Having garnered one stakes victory, a second quickly followed in the November Win Challenge in Nevada (73 SF). Last time out, in her routing debut, Impossible Project was an even third in the Four Bee Memorial (78 SF). If she improves on that performance, as her connections hope she will, a victory will be a far from “impossible” project.
Wood You Hush was a popular NWRC runner several years ago, winning several stakes as a juvenile. The rest of his career, he never quite hit the same heights he achieved that first season, but that was enough to earn him an “E” rating, and a date with Giant’s Causeway. The result, dadepark’s Just Cause(IRE) has had a nice start to her career, finishing second in her debut (71 SF), and then finding the winner’s circle in only her second start (69 SF). Her odds appear to be based more on her connections and her potential than what she’s proven so far, as several fillies in this race have already shown much more speed on the track, but the bright copper chestnut has done little wrong so far, and is more than likely capable of rising to the occasion if pushed.
Three other fillies are listed at 11/1: tbird’s Classic Home, woodhead’s Flying Canuck and good’s Sim Arcade T. Classic Home is unbeaten in two starts, and has done everything you’d want to see in a filly, except perhaps in the speed figure department, where she has yet to crack the 70 SF mark. That said, the Came Home filly has done just enough to win, and no more, and no one, except perhaps her connections, know what she’s capable of once she’s actually challenged. Flying Canuck is fresh off of a victory in the NWRC MB Marathon at one mile, where she pulled away coming out of the far turn to score a two length victory (73 SF). The royally bred daughter of Sadler’s Wells out of a Gone West mare, has been a different filly since switching to the turf, and she clearly likes the route of ground. The extra distance can only help – the main question here is whether she can take her game up another notch against some of the more favored, and proven, contenders. Sim Arcade T is by an obscure son of Seattle Slew, but don’t tell her that. With the high powered Sadler’s Wells in the DS position, this filly has looked solid in her two turf outings, both at one mile. After pulling away to break her maiden by three on the tough California circuit, she finished second in the West Point Thoroughbred Texas Turf Juvenile last time out, earning an 81 SF behind the classy Sun In Action, who is also running this week – in the Breeders’ Bowl Juvenile Filly Turf. If Sun In Action performs well in that race, that would bode extremely well for Arcade’s chances here.
Misty Way looks to get back on track for catdancer. The filly has a terrific turf pedigree (Cetewayo x Diesis x Vaguely Noble), and while she has only one win from five starts, that came in the GSR Cream of the Green, where she beat the boys by a decisive two lengths in her first route attempt (77 SF). The closer had been knocking on the door in three previous sprints, but finally put it together on the big day. The red-gold chestnut was wheeled back four weeks later in the Grade 3 Flying Saucer Stakes again versus the boys, but she never fired, trailing throughout. That race is most likely a toss. She faces some nice fillies here, but she gets a nice pace scenario and a drop in class, which makes her 15/1 odds rather attractive. If you’re looking at exotic bets, this is one you want to include, and she’s got a legitimate chance at the win. Ferocious Roar has won one of five starts, but her speed figures have yet to progress beyond a 67 SF, and that won’t cut it here. A daughter of Roar, I wonder if she wouldn’t ultimately be a better runner on the main track, a surface she has yet to try. This will be the goody3 filly’s first routing attempt, but her lone try at 7 furlongs wasn’t exactly encouraging about her ability to handle another 1 ½ furlongs.
Day Lily is still a maiden, but she’s been knocking on the door, finishing third, fourth and second in her last three races. Her most recent start was her best yet, with a 71 SF over a flat mile. The extra distance should help this half-sister to stakes winner Brick Town, but this is a tough, tough spot in which to break a horse’s maiden, but if she can pull it off, kudos to kyfiesta for an excellent training job. Bites is the other maiden in the race. The jimmyv24 makes her turf debut here after running three times on the main track. Her pedigree (The Cliff’s Edge x Jump Start) doesn’t exactly say turf, but you never know until you run them. Like Day Lily, Bites’ best race came in her routing attempt, so distance isn’t an issue, but again, this is asking a lot of a maiden. Good luck to all!