Incredible Turf Race At Germany
While the V. P. Von Baden, a million-dollar 12-furlong Grade 1 turf test for older horses, may be held in Germany, it has quickly become a huge tradition of the USA’s Labor Day weekend in the Derbyfever Sim world. This year’s big race looks even bigger than the previous two runnings, both of which were contested by many of the top superstars of their day. In addition to favored and top-rated defending champion KING TACHYON, thirteen other highly-rated stars will grace the grounds in what might be one the most exciting and competitive races ever held in the history of this great game. As a matter of fact, the lowest-rated runner here is at #73 on the list.
A quick glance down the list of recent PP’s shows no less than seventeen Graded-stakes wins without having to click the runners’ “lifetime record” tabs; there are 38 total Graded wins accounted for by this bunch. Total lifetime winnings? Without pulling out my abacus, I get about $37 million Simoleans, well over 2 mil per horse… In other words, this race does NOT suck!
It’s race #4792.5813. Be sure to tune your race-viewer in to this one! The course is Firm, and the anticipation is huge!
The 15th-ranked TEX GOLD gets the rail for this contest at 9/1. Winner of just over $5mil, this 5yo son of Sadler’s Wells has won five Graded trophies, but not since he won the G1 Goldminer Cup almost a year ago. He does seem to be coming back into his top form again for texasaace00, but the 12 furlongs could be a bit far, especially in light of the expected hot-pace scenario here. Several of these like to see nothing but empty grass in front of them early on, likely setting things up for the closers. As you will soon see, there is no shortage of those around here… The highly-rated rider could help, though.
18th-ranked A. P. POPULAR has earned just a hair under $3mil and holds two Graded titles while representing the thierry colors in fine fashion. The 4yo A. P. Indy colt has also been a runner-up no less than five times and third once in Graded races at 12 furlongs in his last eight starts. A record like this would make this guy a heavy favorite in almost any race, but not this one… He’s 10/1. Should be a danger, but will need a bit more oomph in that closing run to find the winner’s circle here.
In just five career turf starts, SIGNS OF CHANGE has charged all the way up to #5 in the rankings for eml1 by taking home three coveted Graded-stakes titles. This after having established stardom in 22 dirt starts with a pair of Graded wins on that surface. The 5yo son of Dynaformer is 7/1 and has a 21% rider after three consecutive dominant Graded turf wins, all at 12 furlongs. In the last, he beat a number of today’s foes handily. Just how good IS this owner of a $2.5 mil bankroll? Watch for his big run in the lane… If he blasts this field in the same fashion as he has the last three times, the HOF folks might be looking to hire a sculptor…
The cleverly-named THE END BEGINS has only a single Graded win, but has managed to claw his way to the #22 spot in the Sim’s rankings. Trained by lenny28, the 4yo Medaglia D’Oro colt last won in November 2010 in the 13-furlong Vicky Derby. That win and a 3-win allowance streak at 12 furlongs from a bit earlier last year earned him the ranking points; he’ll need a major reversal of his recent form to live up to that number in this spot, and gets 13/1 odds. Might have tipped his hand with a nice 2nd last time out, however.
EL SKUNKBERTO SLEW goes off at 9/1 for skunkbred3. Owner of “just” one Graded title, that win was just two starts ago against a solid field that included A. P. POPULAR. A repeat of that performance by this 31st-ranked son of El Prado would put him in the thick of things here. Unfortunately, though, he slipped back some in his most recent effort against a few of those in here. Dangerous on his best day; will he have it?
CRUSADING ENFORCER has won an incredible eight Graded trophies and almost $8mil for foxon5. Just when people thought that maybe this 5yo son of Montjeu might have lost a step, he posted a nice Grade 1 win while beating today’s favorite in the Milan Grand Prix two starts back. He was unable to repeat that effort in his last, but looks to have a chance to exhibit that late run here with the hot pace expected. 10/1 to those who think he can…
THE BODYGUARD is one of those sneaky types who puts up a big run on occasion, and has a pair of Graded wins in his coffers and a #42 ranking to go with the $1.4mil he has earned for woette4. Unfortunately, the 5yo son of English Channel can run a really, really bad one on occasion, too. Will he compete or flop today at 14/1?
GRAND BALL goes off at 13/1 for pointblank. The 5yo son of Dynaformer has won three Graded races and almost $1.4mil, but hasn’t managed a stakes win beyone 10f since June 2010. He has been close a couple times, though, and is ranked #30. Will need his very best effort here.
KING TACHYON has been “the man” in the Long Turf division for a good while, and was cutting a wide swath in the competition before a surprising lackluster run in the G1 Milan Grand Prix in June. Everything was looking fine in his next start, but then here came SIGNS OF CHANGE. A hot pace is expected today, which doesn’t help this 5yo son of King Kamehameha at all. Still, #1 is #1, and he’s the 5/1 favorite here. The musse trainee, winner of an amazing $8.4mil, will need his very best in order to notch Graded win #6.
GALILAYO has been the king of the “just-missed” crew recently, but has one Graded title in his bag. The 4yo Galileo colt has won just over a million Sim bucks, and trainer goldsmith has his star running strongly; he led in the stretch at 14f last time and can’t be discounted at 11/1.
CAN YOU FEEL IT is ranked “only” #71, but has run very well on this course, including a small-field Graded win last time out. That was this Dubawi colt’s only Graded win, but itsthebear hopes that his runner is just now finding the peak of his game. He’s also 11/1 in this wide-open contest.
SYNCHRONIZATION is an interesting one; at age 7, he’s won just one Graded race, and that was almost four years ago. Lately, though, he’s won a pair of minor stakes and has placed in a number of Graded runs. He’s kept up a lofty #73 ranking, and is “for real”. The bad news, though, is that the son of Tactical Cat’s front-running style will likely be compromised here. He’s 12/1 and will need a very strong run to compete with this bunch.
ST. MICHAEL has yet to break the half-million earnings mark, but has a pair of Graded wins and a #59 ranking. One of those Graded wins was right here in Germany, raising the stock on this Montjeu colt; however, he’s never raced in a 12-furlong stakes and this is a nasty spot in which to try new things. The rohirrim trainee goes off at 14/1.
BOGOESAWAY is ranked #20 in the division, and has a Graded win and $1.7mil. However, his first try against a large field full of established stars such as today’s went rather poorly last time out. Trainer bobrba1 is hoping his Encosta De Lago colt is better for the experience and tries again, at 10/1.
Okay… That’s what a great field looks like… Now, it’s my turn to do the tea-leaves and abacus thing…
My first thought is that there are three genuine front-runner types and one or two others who like to threaten and sometimes lead… This does not bode well for any wire-to-wire attempts, even when they are as good as these… With that in mind:
SIGNS OF CHANGE is my pick to run down the tiring speed and continue his apparent charge towards Sim immortality.
CAN U FEEL IT loves this course, and will sneak past almost all of ’em late.
The awesome KING TACHYON will be the last pacesetter standing and will edge TEX GOLD for the show dough.
This race is a must-see… SEE IT!! Good luck to all!