Nightlinger Favored In 16-Furlong Seattle Stayer
The 16-furlong Grade 1 Seattle Stayer in the Pacific Northwest Saturday is one of the few big graded stakes races left in the Breeders’ Bowl Dirt Marathon picture. With only the $100,000 Grade 3 Fall Championship in Eastern Kentucky next week, the $500,000 Grade 1 Monster Mash in Portugal on September 10 and the $500,000 Grade 1 Geaux Saints in Louisiana on October 1 (to be carded next week), there are very few upcoming key graded stakes races in the next month for the horses in this division to try and improve their ranking in the older males long dirt division. Three horses ranked in the top 11 in the long dirt division will be here in Washington on Saturday. Corin (#7), Irius (#9) and Sugarcoatediceberg (#11) are all here, and all of them will be looking to improve their chances of getting into the Breeders’ Bowl Dirt Marathon in Kentucky in November. But interestingly enough, none of the three are among the top three favorites set by the morning line odds makers in the Seattle Stayer Stakes. Nightlinger, who is ranked 75th in this division, is your 5/2 morning line favorite. And you’ve got No More Chavez who is the 7/2 second choice and ranked 178th in this division. Then you have Gato De Lago at 4-1, and he’s ranked 191st in the long dirt division. Here is the field for Saturday’s running of the $500,000 Grade 1 Seattle Stayer at 16 furlongs on the dirt, for three year olds and up. 1 — CORIN (KY) Owner: Bush League Stables 🙂 (tejanorun) Odds: 7/1 (Arch x Cair Paravel (Sadler’s Wells x Atlantian)) Corin could be the key barometer in this race, as far as judging this bunch in the Seattle Stayer goes. He’s got more common races with these than almost any of the others here. Last time out, he finished third behind Irius in the Grade 3 Jacksonville Jog. Two starts back, Corin finished second in the Grade 1 Razorback Route, far ahead of both K’s Fool In Love and Lonlon, both of whom he’ll see here. Then three starts back he finished second behind Sugarcoatediceberg, and both Corin and Sugarcoastediceberg were very impressive in that race, because they both beat the number one ranked horse in this division–Stone Chicken. And way back in January, Corin finished behind both both Irius and Sugarcoatediceberg in the Grade 2 Buckeye Stayer. Corin loves to come from far back and close with a late rush. He’s beaten a few of these, and lost to a few of these, but we really like the chances of Corin here, who is the number seven ranked horse in this division. He’s had a super year, especially since that loss in the Grade 1 Razorback Route in January. His speed figures are consistent, and in his last six starts, he’s won twice, finish second three times, and finished third once. And, let’s remember, his last three starts were all graded stakes races in this division, and he finished twice second and third once. Corin’s on a major league roll coming in here, and he’s well seasoned, despite being one of the younger horses in this field. Definitely, this young four year old son of Arch has to be considered a serious contender in this spot in Washington on Saturday. If a couple of these try to run too fast, too early, this guy can definitely come from way back and mow ’em down in deep stretch, so let’s keep a close eye on Corin. He might just be one of the best value plays in this spot. 2 — SUGARCOATEDICEBERG (FR) Owner: Sirivor Stables (kelso) Odds: 14/1 (Dream Well (FR) x Irish Disease (Shernazar (IRE) x The Irish Lord)) Sugarcoatediceberg–that name sounds delicious to me for some reason. The five year old French-bred son of Dream Well has 28 lifetime starts, 14 on the turf and 14 on the dirt. He’s getting back into his comfort zone here in the 16-furlong Seattle Stayer on the dirt surface, where he’s won $959,000 of his $1.2 million career earnings. Two starts back, this guy won the 16-furlong Grade 2 Baltimore Special by 3+ lengths as the longest shot in the race. He took three months off from the races, and then came back in a 12-furlong turf event where he was well beaten. You can draw a line through that race and toss it out. That was just a warm-up, and that grass wasn’t really what this guy likes most. He really has developed well late and had a pretty nice career after running most of his early career races on the grass. Most of his career earnings came in December of last year when he won the $1 million DCPD IX Grade 3 Kelso Handicap on Christmas Day. In fact, Sugarcoatediceberg put together a really nice string of three races about that time, finishing second in a couple of graded events just before and after the Grade 3 Kelso. Just after the Kelso Handicap, he finished second to Irius, who he’ll be meeting up with again on Saturday and he’ll be looking to avenge that loss. Like Irius, he too will be looking for his first graded win ever. His chances look good here after a long rest and then a romp on the grass last time out. He’s ranked number 11 in this division, and we might see him pop a big number in this race, speed figure-wise. 3 — NO MORE CHAVEZ (JPN) Owner: Otto Haack (Venezuela) (victoria) Odds: 7/2 (Moon Ballad (IRE) x Arabian Lass (Zilzal X Seattle Slew)) No More Chavez ran in this race two years ago, and he finished a very respectable second. The six year old son of Moon Ballad is closing in on the million dollar career mark in earnings, and a top three finish here would see him pop that million dollar mark on Saturday. After a tenth place finish in last year’s Breeders’ Bowl marathon, No More Chavez took two months off from the races, recharged his batteries and came back this year with some extremely nice efforts. He’s thrown triple digit speed figures in all but one of his 2011 starts, and he’s won or been in the money four of the six times he’s seen the track. His win this year came in a 10-furlong allowance event in Delaware, where he popped the highest speed figure of this season (111). He really saw a lot more graded stakes action last season, when he ran in a whopping seven graded stakes events and won two of them–the Grade 1 Cayuga Lake Special and the Grade 3 Olympic Torch, both of which were 16-furlong events. He finished second or third in three other graded events last season. He’s won ten of his 38 career starts, and he’s been in the money in 18 others. That’s a pretty remarkable strike rate for this guy. He shows a lot of early speed in most of his races this season, and you’ll probably see this guy’s number flashing on the tote board early on Saturday. He’s got the speed to keep this race honest, that’s for sure. 4 — K’S FOOL IN LOVE (IRE) Owner: Pompeya Thoroughbred Racing Corporation (sledwith2) Odds: 28/1 (High Chaparral (IRE) x K’s Indispensable (Mineshaft x Danzig)) Now, here’s a hot horse who’s rounding into form at just the right time, despite his 28/1 odds. Check out K’s Fool In Love’s recent past performances. The four year old son of High Chaparral has been tearing up the track of late, winning eight of his last 11 starts coming into the Seattle Stayer on Saturday. And his winning margin in those eight victories has been a whopping 42 ½ lengths….that’s an average of over 5 lengths a win. Wow! Of course, it helped a lot when he absolutely demolished an allowance field by 20 lengths in South Africa, where he’s done the majority of his racing during his career. Like a few others in here, he started out his career on the turf in New South Wales, before turning to the dirt for good. K’s Fool In Love really only started running these marathon-type events about the same time he started this hot streak he’s been on, around late summer or early fall of 2010. He gradually worked his way up in distance, winning at 11 furlongs, then 12, then 13, then 14, before he finally won his first stakes race of his career last time out. In fact, that 16-furlong event was not only his first stakes win ever. It was also his first try at 16 furlongs. It came in Missouri on July 30 in the Patu Picin Dirt Stayer Stakes, and he won in gate to wire fashion, drawing off easily in the home stretch. This horse, who is out of the Mineshaft mare, K’s Indispensable, has tons of early speed. He’ll be way out in front early here on Saturday, if his recent past performances hold true. And like most of the horses from Pompeya Thoroughbred Racing Corporation, this one’s career has been well orchestrated from the very beginning. Before his last two stakes tries, he’s been in mostly bid races, and it’s paid off in a big way for this horse. He really doesn’t have the speed figures that a lot of these have, but I have a feeling this horse has been brought up to this distance patiently, and he probably has a lot of gas in the tank coming in here. Always watch out for these Pompeya horses in these spots. He knows when they’re ready, and you can bet this one is sharp. 5 — GATO DE LAGO (AUS) Owner: Donnie Beisbol and his lovely fake Horsies (mattress) Odds: 4/1 (Encosta De Lago (AUS) x Cuchi Cat (A.P. Indy x Storm Cat) Donny Beisbol will be looking for his third grade 1 win as a trainer here (and second one with a homebred), when he sends Gato De Lago into the fray Saturday in Washington. If you want to talk about speed figures, consider this. The five year old Australian-bred son of Encosta De Lago has popped the triple digit speed figure barrier a whopping 17 times in 26 career starts. That ain’t bad, AT ALL. Like Nightlinger, this will be Gato De Lago’s second career attempt at this 16-furlong distance, and also like Nightlinger, he’ll be looking for his second career win at this distance. Gato De Lago, who is out of the Storm Cat mare Cuchi Cat, won last time out in the 16-furlong Hardwood Floor Dirt Stayer Stakes in Argentina, and he threw a very respectable 106 speed figure in winning that event. He came from way back, some 18+ lengths off the pace halfway through the race, and he won drawing off easily. That July 23 effort looks pretty good for his chances here on Saturday. He spent most of his early career running in 8 and 9-furlong races, until this season, when he really started stepping up to the 10 and 12-furlong range before his last outing. Gato De Lago never skipped a beat when it came to the speed figure department as he stepped up in distance this season. He’s also won three of his last six starts, and he’s finished second or third in two others. Might want to keep your eye on the entry from Donny Beisbol on Saturday. Gato De Lago could be a very live play indeed in this spot. 6 — LONLON (SAF) Owner: Acarigua Stables (acarigua) Odds: 40/1 (Western Winter x Lomond x Storm Bird) The South African-bred son of Western Winter is another here in the Seattle Stayer trying to carve out a career on the dirt when he runs for Acarigua Stables Saturday. He’s only three years old, and he’s got 17 career starts, 14 of which have come on the turf. He’s got one graded win on that surface, and that came in his two year old season last year when he won the 8-furlong Grade 3 Baby King Stakes in only his fourth career start. Lonlon ran in eight graded events early on in his career, and he came very close to picking up his second career graded win he lost by just a head in the 9-furlong Grade 2 South African Classic. Lonlon raced for the first time on the dirt in June of this year, when he finished third in the Grade 1 Labatt’s Ontario Oaks. That was a pretty impressive start to his dirt career, and he gained a lot of ground late in that one. Lonlon threw a 101 speed figure in that race. He’s run in three other graded races on the dirt since then, and he hasn’t fared nearly as well. He threw a couple of 50ish speed figures and one 70 in those three tries–at 11,14 and 16 furlongs. He did have one return to the turf in that stretch since June, when he ran in the Grade 3 Oceanside Stakes. He got back to form there with a 98 speed figure. Lonlon will be up against the wall here against this bunch on Saturday, and it probably wont help his chances that he’s coming off what will be only a 14-day rest. If he can come back to the form he showed in his first career dirt start in Ontario, where he popped a 101 speed figure, this long shot could be competitive here. 7 — IRIUS (KY) Owner: Rafa Stables (sonsierra) Odds: 5/1 (Awesome Again x Rahab (Galileo x Pulpit)) Irius is ranked number 9 in the older males long dirt division and looking to improve on that ranking here in the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. The six year old son of Awesome Again out of the Galileo mare Rahab has run in four graded stakes this year, and he’s won two of them. Both of his graded wins were at the 16-furlong distance he’ll be seeing here in Washington Saturday, including a super performance last time out in the Grade 3 Jacksonville Jog at the other end of the country in Northern Florida. He led at all four calls of that race, and he ended up drawing off at the end and winning by open lengths. Irius beat some pretty nice horses in that race, including Stygiophobia, who is ranked number two in this division. Irius threw a 105 speed figure in that race, but he did even better than that in January when he won the 16-furlong Grade 2 Buckeye Stayer in Ohio, where he threw a 107 speed figure. This horse has had a pretty nice year so far, climbing the ranks in this division slowly but surely. He’ll be looking for his first grade 1 win ever when he takes the track Saturday in the Seattle Stayer. And he’s beaten a few of these already. Watch out for Irius Saturday. This is an extremely dangerous horse in this spot. 8 — EL PRESIDENTE (ENG) Owner: Kevoman Stables (dazzler) Odds: 6/1 (Cacique (IRE) x Diamond Digger (Mineshaft x Shirley Heights (GB))) Kevoman Stables sends El Presidente here to Washington on Saturday for a try at his first grade 1 win ever. He’s only four years old, and he’s a son of Cacique, out of the stamina-laden Mineshaft mare Diamond Digger. El Presidente’s only graded win came on the turf in October of last season in the 14-furlong Grade 2 Hanging Chad Stakes in Paris. Just before that race, he finished second in the prestigious Grade 2 St. Legend Stakes, also in Paris, also on the turf and also at 14 furlongs. In fact, El Presidente started off his career on the turf with seven consecutive stakes races, before he tried five allowance events on the dirt. He then returned to the turf, where he started popping triple digit speed figures consistently. His best two during that stretch were a couple of 109’s, the last one coming his last time out on August 6, when he won the 16-furlong Seeking Sal Turf Challenge Stakes in Turkey. It’s going to be really interesting to see how El Presidente handles the return to the dirt here in the Seattle Stayer Saturday. He’s won three of his last four races coming in here, so he’s on a bit of hot streak. And an interesting sidebar here is that it will be the English-bred’s first career start on American soil. Both of his highest speed figure races have come on either yielding or good turf surfaces, and while Washington is known for its rain, the chances are that the course will be fast here on Saturday. El Presidente could make things extremely interesting for the handicappers trying to figure this one out, that much is certain. 9 — NIGHTLINGER (KY) Owner: Big Cheese Racing (early) Odds: 5/2 (Curlin x Speightstown x Northern Dancer) It’s been a while since the four year old son of Curlin has seen this 16-furlong distance he’ll be running Saturday in the Grade 1 Seattle Stayer Stakes. In fact, he’s only run this distance once, and that was in an allowance event in Virginia back in February of this year. Nightlinger really only started his career back in July of last year, and he’s got 17 career starts. That’s quite a few races in a short period of time. But looking at his speed figures, this guy can definitely handle the quick turnarounds. And that’s probably why the odds makers have installed the son of Curlin as the 5/2 morning line favorite. He’s been on fire lately. Nightlinger has thrown triple digit speed figures in his last six starts, winning five of them, including a win in the 10-furlong Grade 1 Farewell To Cryptozot Stakes down in Texas on August 6. Two starts back he looked really impressive when he popped a 117 speed figure in a 10-furlong open allowance event in Michigan. He came from way back and won drawing off there, and that’s pretty much this guy’s running style. He likes coming from far back and putting on a strong stretch show for the crowd. His only loss in his last six starts was in the Grade 2 12-furlong Crooklyn Handicap in New York, where he managed to gain a little ground late and still threw a 105 speed figure in finishing fifth. He’s only got $138,000 in career earnings, but then again, he really has only those 17 starts. He’s won eight of them and finished second or third in six others. This guy is used to being around the money, and it’ll be really interesting to see how he handles his second career try at 16 furlongs. The odds makers definitely think he’s live in this field, and we do, too.