Mountainous Derby Draws 14
The feature race at scenic West Virginia Raceway this Saturday is the $750k, Grade III Mountainous Derby, a nine-furlong test for 3yo’s. A full field of 13 colts and one filly will greet the starter.
The field appears on the surface to be a bit light for a big-money Grade III race, but not many around the Sim knew who Demeco was before he used a win here in 2008 as a springboard to a 4-race Graded-stakes streak including the Breeders Bowl Classic and a subsequent Eclipse as Top 3yo of 2008.
Will we see another superstar emerge from this bunch? It’s not likely, but maybe… That’s what makes horse racing such a great sport… You never know where that “next big thing” is going to come from. Let’s take a look-see…
ISKANDER is a Tiznow colt trained by super1, going off at 17/1. Ranked #83 in the division, he’s tried Graded company several times with not a lot of success. However, he’s had a few decent runs at this level and isn’t out of the question to make a dent here. Will need a lifetime best to get a win, though.
CELESTIAL PEACE is the #23-ranked 3yo filly, and has banged heads with many of the best in her division. Should cyberex have her as sharp as she was in winning that Grade III a few starts ago, she’s a real danger to pull off the win here. The CPU likes her and makes her the 7/1 co-2nd choice. Interestingly, her sire Admire Moon has only produced two Graded winners ever… And both are here, and both are at 7/1.
SPINNING EMPIRE is a speedy son of Empire Maker who looks like a potential pace victim in this slot. Yet to break the $100k earnings mark, he has yet to prove that he can hang with this sort. At 14/1, the koalaking trainee will need a huge run here in order to compete.
SIGHING DESERT has faced nothing but stakes company since winning in his debut back in May 2009. While he’s only got two wins since then, the Street Cry colt has almost always been right in the hunt when it counted, and the worldwide trainee is a deserving 5/1 favorite. Look for a strong rush from this guy nearing the wire.
KING VICTOR I is that other Admire Moon offspring with a Graded win, and is a co-2nd choice at 7/1. The tampadowns trainee has accomplished much, grabbing three Graded trophies; however, his foray into the bigtime went poorly in two of the Triple Crown races against the best in the game. Can he find his stride against this allegedly weaker field? Maybe… I’m hoping so, since he’s mine and all… 🙂
SALES PITCH has a race pattern that looks remarkably similar to Demeco’s 2008 pre-race record, except that the speeds are a trifle lower. The Ecosta De Lago colt started his career on the turf, two races that can easily be thrown out, much like Demeco’s two turf tries (though they weren’t his first two career starts). Since moving to the dirt, he’s been a dynamo in four allowances with three wins, getting faster with each try. He’s 11/1, a healthy price on the mtkearner trainee, and has a real shot at this. Makes a quick return to the races after the long flight from Italy.
BURN THE EVIDENCE is another making his stakes debut off a couple recent late-closing wins, but both were against small fields and at lesser tracks. The redhill trainee gets 9/1 odds, so the CPU sees something in this improving Pulpit colt. Also makes a quick 3-week turnaround, trying to take advantage of his sharpness.
FREE AS A BIRD took home top prize in the Grade III Chicago Derby in his stakes debut, but has only managed one 3rd-place run in three Graded tries since. That 3rd came after a 7-week rest following a very quick turnaround to the previous start, and he could regain his top game here. The urso-trained Birdstone colt is the third of the 7/1 runners in the field.
FASHION POLE is ranked #24 off of one big Grade I win last fall, a win he has been unable to duplicate since. Finally pirates dropped his Old Fashioned colt into allowances and found his way into the winners circle twice. What happens here? Does he come roaring to the wire like in his last two, or does he fall back to what he’s done in most of his Graded efforts? CPU says 12/1, and I’d guess he falls back in this bunch.
READY CHACHIN is another of that type who has done well in allowance company, but has been unable to get much done vs. Graded runners. The Ready’s Image colt goes off at 14/1, in an apparent moon-shot by cashmoney. Will need a lifetime best to compete with this group.
IT’S A LAUGHER has a stakes win, but the only accomplished runner in that race did so on the turf. 19/1 actually looks low in this group as orionsgold skips shooting at the moon and aims at Mars… “It’s blocking my view of Jupiter!”, he says. There is a lot of blue blood in this Point Given colt’s pedigree; maybe someday, but I’m not emptying my wallet on this one here.
SQRRL POWER is a more interesting outside-shot kind of runner. He finished well ahead of two of these in a Grade II at 11 furlongs, then came back on just a two-week rest to finish mid-pack in the Grade I New Yorker, finishing off-the-board for the first time ever. The 77th-ranked Street Hero colt has a decent shot at making a dent here at 11/1 for diabolical.
SUMMER PASSION is a Tale Of The Cat colt with just one stakes win in a minimum-field event, but he improved his lifetime best speed number by 11 while finishing 2nd to a good one in his last. It’s hard to expect that kind of improvement in two consecutive starts, but kingman is hoping for just that from his 17/1 shot.
HARD BARK just got finished running in all three races of the URC residency’s restricted Triple-Crown equivalent races, finishing well in all three without managing a win; however, his speed number went down each time. The Unbridled’s Song colt has run quite a bit since breaking his maiden on New Year’s Day; the nine-week rest by trainer quagmire might bring this 10/1 shot back to top form. If so, this guy could do a bit of damage here.
Okay, time to pick a winner… In the past, I’ve used tea leaves, an Ouija board, Tarot cards, actual handicapping manuals, coin flips, rock-paper-scissors… Can’t pick a winner to save my life! I even consulted M. C. Hammer’s financial advisor once and hit the “upside-down exacta” (The last two finishers, in order; too bad that doesn’t pay off!).
Therefore, take my handicapping “advice” with a huge grain of salt!
As much as I hate to do it, I’m gonna go against my horse and pick SALES PITCH to pull the minor upset, and then maybe take a shot at emulating the great Demeco’s 2008 streak.
KING VICTOR I has three Graded wins and should be able to deal with the rest of these.
SIGHING DESERT should account for himself nicely and grab the show dough.
Lots of these can surprise on their best day; this one will be a good target for your Race Viewer!
Also, take a good look at the Eddie Haskell Stakes over at New Jersey… I ducked that field with my “King Vic”, and that should be a great one, too!