The Real Danger Handicap Grade II

The Real Danger Handicap Grade II

This weekend the ladies take to the track in Belgium to battle it out over the sprint journey in The Real Danger Handicap, a race run over 6 furlongs on the dirt in beautiful Belgium.  Conditions look perfect with a fast track predicted and an even field assembled making it difficult to pick the winner.

This field brings together many multiple stakes winners and some horses with amazing win strike rates.  Let’s have a good look at the runners.

1. YAMATO(KY)      9/2                              (A.P. INDY x SAKHEE x FORTY NINER)

Ga Butler ( 82 – 10 – 6 – 14 – 12% )

This 5yo mare out of former star Sip of Saki has been in outstanding form of late.  Sip of Saki won 9 graded races including 4 grade 1’s and accumulated almost $4m in prize money in what was a stellar career.  Yamato has taken a while to hit her straps but has found form since being given time to settle down into dirt sprint races and has now won 11 of 24 career starts and looks set for bigger things.  Expect her to settle back and charge late to be a major player in this race.

2. WHITE PHANTOM(KY)   9/1 (GHOSTZAPPER x MISWAKI x DAMASCUS)

T Iommi ( 55 – 2 – 4 – 4 – 4% )

Another 5yo mare White Phantom is also starting to hit her straps as a 5yo and has won 4 of her last 5 starts in good fashion.  Her speed figures are continuing to improve and she has won stakes races at her last two outings after running in allowance races for all of her career.  She has a career best speed figure of 104 and would need to improve on that to challenge in this but could be getting home hard late and figuring in the finish.

3. FLAMIN EL(KY)     25/1            (EL CORREDOR x NUNC PRO TUNC x NATIVE CHARGER)

P Lannoo ( 45 – 1 – 10 – 10 – 2% )

This 4yo filly likes to ping out of the gates and run often setting the pace in her races.  She is facing a task here with a big step up in class and some good opposition engaged.  She is however already a stakes winner stealing one 5 starts back and has had 22 starts for 6 wins and almost $130 000 in earnings.  She will need to improve significantly to win this race however and I expect to see them running over the top of her going into the last couple of furlongs.

4. SNIKERS ROCK(IND)              61/1               (SUNDAY DOUBT x MUJADIL x LUCENCE)

B B Thornton ( 37 – 5 – 4 – 7 – 14% )

One of the youngest in the field this 3yo filly has done a lot of racing in her career so far with 17 starts netting connections 2 wins including a stakes win over 7 furlongs.  Her speed figures need attention if she is to figure in this and although she has a good jockey engaged to take the ride I can’t see her hitting the board here.

5.   RATHER BE SAILING  4/1      (FUJI KISEKI(JPN) x N. DANCER x MR. PROSPECTOR)

            T Maes ( 97 – 13 – 11 – 11 – 13% )

Rather Be Sailing has been a fantastic 4yo mare for the Adrian4 stable winning 11 of 18 career starts so far and breaking the 100 speed figure in 8 of those races.  The damline of this scratchbred is huge with Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector both appearing, 2 champions of the last 30 plus years.  She has won her last 2 outings in good time and looms as a major player in this one.

6. MY GUILT MY SHAME 4/1   (DISTORTED HUMOR x DEPUTY MINISTER x BUCKPASSER)

J Holmes ( 180 – 18 – 25 – 18 – 10% )

This 5yo mare is another who likes to get back in her races and finish strongly.  She has won 2 of her last 3 races including a win at stakes level with a 109 speed figure 2 starts back.  If she can repeat that effort she should go very close to winning this.  Her dirt sprints record is great winning 8 of 19 and only missing a place in 3 of those 19 races.  A good chance.

7. GLORIOUS MOON(KY)  7/1               (MALIBU MOON x STORM CAT x OCTAGONAL(NZ)

J Van Dam ( 257 – 49 – 43 – 42 – 19% )

Another runner who has won 2 of her last 3 outings although those wins came in allowance company.  She raced a lot as an early two old winning some big races including the Grade 1 DPCD VIII Thxmsslew Handicap and won a Grade 2 race as an early 3yo.  Her form has tapered off a little since however she did win an allowance race 2 back with a speed figure of 109 which would be competitive in this.  Not many 2yo stars back it up into their 4^th year and although she has a gun jockey engaged to take the ride I think she might be struggling to win at stakes level here.

8. LAKE HAACK(AUS)     6/1      (ENCOSTA DE LAGO (AUS) x LYPHARD x RIVERMAN)

F Rizzo ( 52 – 9 – 5 – 5 – 17% )

Another 5yo mare who has hit serious form of late winning 7 straight not that long ago after appearing in a $15000 claimer.  Has proven to be an outstanding claim for the mattress stable winning 6 of 10 dirt sprints since moving to her new surroundings including a huge allowance win over 7 furlongs on the dirt with a speed figure of 111.  She sits back and has a huge finishing burst so expect to see her appearing in the picture over the last couple of furlongs and figuring in the finish.

9. CORSICANA(TX)   17/1             (SEEKING A HOME x DANZIG x DEPUTY MINISTER)

B O Brindle ( 69 – 15 – 11 – 4 – 22% )

This up and coming 4yo from the texasace08 stable is yet to finish further back than 2^nd in 9 career starts winning 7 of them.  She’s out of a moderately performed Danzig mare and likes to lead early in her races setting the pace from the outset in nearly every race she has been in.  She looks a natural improver and has a top jockey engaged so looks suited here.  There isn’t a huge amount of speed in the race so she should get an easy lead and prove hard to run down in the closing stages.

10. COLE VALLEY(KY)     7/2                        (KINGMAMBO x DANZIG x STORM CAT)

A Smith ( 304 – 73 – 61 – 44 – 24% )

This 5yo mare is out of outstanding producer Ash Highway who herself was never able to win a stakes or graded race but has proven to be an amazing broodmare with Danzig and Storm Cat heading her pedigree.  Ash Highway has had 4 foals to race, all of them Graded winners, an amazing achievement.  Cole Valley looks set to be an outstanding broodmare also but her form of late has been good and the socalman stable is continuing to send this valuable broodmare to the race track.  Last time out she rattled home from off the pace to win a Grade II race in good time posting a 112 speed figure which would win this race.  A major player.

Good luck to all runners.

My Selections

1.      Cole Valley

2.      Corsicana

3.      Rather Be Sailing