Poule d’Essai des Pouliches – G1
Welcome to Paris to the classic 1000 Guineas, the French version (The real version if this race is called Poule d’Essai des Pouliches and has been running 1883). It is spring time and this season are fully of Guineas, Derby’s and Oaks, the sweetest period, along with the Breeders Bowl, of a racing season according to me. We have all the 3 year old horses making some statement during that period! All the Guineas races are a mile long and normally contain the very nice amount of cash: $500,000 and for this we have 8 hungry horses read here!
1. SPECIAL ME (3/1)(SPECIAL WEEK x BELONG TO ME x SOUTHERN HALO): This mare out of Japan have raced very heavy and made her best racing as a 2yo winning three graded races, she also made 9 starts as 2yo and have so far made 4 as 3 and also winning a graded this year so there is some potential there of course. I believe this horse would need a rest before she can take it to the next level and I would be very surprised if this our winner of this race. I can’t question the races she have done, but I also can’t ignore the last 3 starts where she have shown she have not developed as much as the other horses. I believe she have a chance of being top-3 in this race, but would be very surprised if she won and if she is going with this tempo of racing I would be very surprised if she was still racing in stakes and graded at the end of the year.
2. WIESE S DANESQUALL (9/1)(WIESENPFAD x DANEHILL x SUMMER SQUALL): 1 of 2 mares from Germany, they seem to have some good turf blood there. This one have won 2 of the 9 starts and will try to make an impact on this race. Maybe this is the horse that will take the lead, but I believe she will probably lose the lead later on in this race. So far she have raced in a mix of allowances and stakes so this is her first graded race ever and a very nice race to make a graded debut in. I believe she is not good enough to be able to have anything to do with the first 3 slots, but with some luck she can get to top-5. My guess is that she need some more time to mature.
3. HUSHWING HARRIER (5/2)(REDOUTE’S CHOICE x SADLER’S WELLS x PRIVATE ACCOUNT): This mare from Australia made a huge impact in turf racing already as a 2yo and have so far continued with that as 3yo. She have been racing 9 times so far and winning 4 of them, but we can also add another 3 places to make the line look very impressive. What makes it even more impressive is the kind of races she have been running, 7 out of the 9 starts have been stakes. I believe this mare have a really good chance in this race as long as it doesn’t go to fast, she will likely drop a few lengths behind the leaders right away and try to pickup later on. I have her as my third one in goal, but what is a bit scary is that she seems to have some hard time in graded company.
4. BAYERN MUNCHEN (9/2)(MONSUN x ROBERTO x NORTHERN DANCER): This mare from Germany have been doing really good so far and have won 4 out of the 5 starts, the 5th races she was second so she is always there when the finish line closes. With some really nice pedigree here as well she will be looking to make a huge impression on the other horses in this race, she also show that she can provide really good speed and is a winner of a G3 race already, so the potential is huge! What I don’t like about this horse is the name, but since the name is not connected to performance she will still be top-3 when this race is over according to me, I have her as my second horse of the goal line.
5. WEARY KIND (5/1)(GALILEO x KINGMAMBO x NIJINSKY II): This mare with superpedigree have made an impact on the racing so far. Winning 6 out of the 9 starts so far, including a G1 victory last time in the Japanese 1000 Guineas. She have been doing really well an the confidence she have is just amazing after 4 victories. I do believe she can do even faster and maybe one day even compete with the guys, but then she would need some more speed. I also believe that some extra speed is required to be able to win this race, but so far she have shown she can adjust the speed just to win. I have this one as my winner of the race and if she fails she should be among the top-3.
6. ROZELLE NINER (9/1)(GIANT’S CAUSEWAY x FORTY NINER x BUCKPASSER): This 3yo out of superstud Giant’s Causeway have been scaring the opponents the last races with 4 wins in a row and the last win was a G3 race, so she is proven graded winner. She started the 2yo season a bit slow doing dirt racing, but the trainer saw the potential on turf and switched and there was some instant success. This mare will be right behind the leaders in this race and will try for a really strong finish the last furlongs. She is my outsider of this race, since I believe we haven’t seen her produce her fastest racing yet but she haven’t broken the three digit mark either.
7. LOSE THE DOLLAR (30/1)(SHAMARDAL x IVAN DENISOVICH x POINT GIVEN): Another mare from Ireland and with well producing sire Shamardal have been very heavy raced so far, making already 15 starts, but she have almost reached 500,000 also, so she have been doing pretty decent. This is the long shot of the race according to the bookies and I tend to agree with them. She made 10 starts as a 2yo (in my eyes that is 4-5 to many) and when 3yo season started it seems like she didn’t put in that extra speed that normally 2yo do a few months into the 3yo season, her fastest running was actually as 2yo! I would give this one a rest for awhile. Even though she is not doing lightspeed on the track she is still getting some nice results and she is not that tested on mile and above, which many parts of the pedigree could indicate that she can run. I believe she could be doing much better, but she would need a rest. With some luck she is top-5 places, but I doubt it.
8. INFECTION (5/1)(OASIS DREAM x KINGMAMBO x SADLER’S WELLS): Another horse with some stunning pedigree out of the high profile sire in Europe Oasis Dream. She have been doing 9 starts and winning 5 out of these starts, among those we can count to 3 listed stakes, but not any graded winnings yet. Last start she had the worst day of her career with only being 13th in the Japanese Guineas, so she will be facing the winner in this race again, maybe it is time for some payback or we could have the same situation again. I believe this mare could be a really good horse, but she have been a but uneven and haven’t really produced the good runs that is needed to win a graded race of this level. I believe she have a small chance of winning, but more likely she is among the 5 first horses in this race.
It is a small shame that there is only 8 horses in this field, since it could have been so much better, but I expect we have good horses here to produce a really nice performance for us who will be watching! I really like that the pedigree is a bit mixed in this race and is coming from several parts instead of just a few regions.
I believe the winner should be performing around 105-106 to win this one, if we had more horses the speed would probably have been faster and since we are missing a real horse that push speed from the start I believe it could have been faster. For a top-3 position the runners would need to perform just below the winner, but I believe this will be a close one. Good luck runners, trainers and betters!
This will be the top 3 from my view and I also have my outsider for the race:
1. WEARY KIND
2. BAYERN MUNCHEN
3. HUSHWING HARRIER
Outsider. ROZELLE NINER
/Daniel