Florida “Derby Lock” Features Undefeated Filly
It’s that time again in Florida… Derby time!
This race has a special place in this writer’s heart because the first winner of this race in 1999 came from one of my stables, but that’s beside the point.
This race has quite a history. Legendary former maiden-claimer Down The Jazz finished 2nd here in 2000 and parlayed that into the best rags-to-riches Triple Crown run in Sim history. He won the Bluegrass Derby and the Middle Jewel before finishing fourth in the New Yorker.
Tower Storm finished 2nd here in 2002 and followed that up with a win in the Bluegrass, Granhee won here and in Kentucky in 2004. Ermington Pegasus ran 5th here in 2006 and then had in-the-money finishes in Kentucky and Maryland on the way to winning over 11 million sim bucks in a stellar career. Awesome Force won here but faltered in Kentucky, but then recovered to win in Maryland and New York.
Okay, let’s take a look at this year’s edition. The headliner is an undefeated filly looking to have a go at the colts, but there are plenty of others ready to map their own history and get their “Derby Lock” slot including 2010’s Eclipse-winning 2yo colt. Lots of promising blue-blooded runners to look at:
From the rail goes the aforementioned undefeated filly, TERMINAL VELOCITY, going off at 7/1 for younggroup. The scratch-bred Awesome Again filly shows no inbreeding in her Sim pedigree, a rare thing to see these days. She’s also a rare thing on the track, a consistent powerhouse who so far has always had plenty in the tank to run down her opposition from far back in Zenyatta-like fashion. A win here would stamp her a genuine contender in the Triple Crown races, and her style and breeding suggest today’s added distance should suit her just fine.
STRIKES AGAIN goes off at 13/1 and tries to establish himself as a true graded-stakes performer here for the goldsmith barn. The Awesome Again colt has shown flashes of ability, but has run poorly in his graded-stakes tries thus far. Can he catch lightning in a bottle here? Not likely, but not impossible.
TADPOLES DOING IT is ranked #12 in the division due to his Grade 1 win back in October, but has been unable to repeat that success since for the add stable. This Fan The Flame colt would light the board up at 28/1 with a win here, but will need to improve greatly to do so.
OLD ETONIAN comes in on a hot streak, with a pair of strong wins including a Grade 2 in his last. This deep-closing colt by Old Fashioned from the capitanio2 barn is on the improve, but hasn’t faced much stock of this quality yet and is thusly set at 14/1.
SYSTEM OVERLOAD is a son of Fusaichi Pegasus who regressed slightly in his last while chasing some good ones home in a Grade 3. Trainer fairhaven1 knows what he’s doing and is unfazed by that setback; his hopes are bolstered by the recent record of the veteran rider aboard. The CPU sets him at 10/1.
METALLURGICAL comes back just three weeks after an impressive Grade 3 win in his stakes debut, and has a nice win streak going. The scratch-bred Hard Spun colt is as hot as they come, but this is the peter12 trainee’s fifth race since Jan. 22. Can he keep this up? He’s among the favorites at 7/1.
SIGHING DESERT is a Street Cry colt who gets 6/1 odds after his strong win last time out in a Grade 3 on a sloppy NJ oval. That win was the first time he beat winners; was the slop a factor? The CPU likes him despite his jock’s mediocre 2011 record.
HAACK’S LEGEND goes off at 13/1 for the ottohaack barn. The Distorted Humor filly returned in strong fashion after a two-month break to record a minor-stakes win after faltering a bit in a Grade 3 in December, and she figures to improve off that effort. Hasn’t got the ridiculous record of the other filly, but she has an upset chance.
JOYA was the Sim’s top 2yo in 2010 and is currently ranked #4, but some of the lustre has faded away for the Redoute’s Choice colt in 2011 after a pair of poor efforts. Trainer kido is probably starting to wonder if his colt is destined to be a sprinter/miler, but he’s giving it another try here.
ERIC’S FAST got caught in the stretch last time out by SIGHING DESERT, but rikib hopes that the tables can be turned here on the dry going. At 6/1, the speedy Unbridled’s Song colt has never raced two turns on a fast track, and his connections wish they’d been able to draw a better rider. Such are the breaks…
GAMBLER GOLD makes his graded-stakes debut here, at 13/1. The Awesome Gambler colt has run strongly in lesser stakes with good speed ratings and daunte has hired a solid veteran rider for the task here, but this is probably a bit much to ask of this colt.
Rated #9, DISSECTED goes off the 5/1 favorite. Trained by checkmate1, the Street Cry colt has one of the top riders aboard and could improve on the fast going. He regressed a bit in his last while facing some tough ones, but a repeat of his Grade 1 win from February could very well do the trick here.
FLEMINGTON GOLD put together a nice record with some easy allowance wins last year, but the Curlin colt has found things a bit tougher in graded-stakes company so far this year for texasace. This guy will need to improve a good bit to contend here, at 20/1.
EMPIRE OF LIGHT took six tries to break his maiden, but he hasn’t missed since. The Flatter colt from the super30 stable is dismissed by the CPU at 19/1, probably because his speed ratings are a bit low, but it’s gard to ignore a three-race win streak.
Handicap:
TERMINAL VELOCITY looks like the real deal to me…
ERIC’S FAST will be tough on the lead.
METALLURGICAL should run strong, but the wear & tear factor could kick in.
Good luck, everyone!