Paceless G1 Ladies Stayer
Dubai hosted a huge day in racing just last week, and once again has several stakes on tap, including the Desert Lady Stayer G1. The Desert Lady Stayer is for fillies and mares that are four years or older. The Desert Lady Stayer is a fourteen furlong race that will be run over a good dirt track, for a purse of $500,000. A small field of seven, with fairly evenly matched fillies is making their way to the gate now. The favorite is at odds of 2/1 and the “long-shot” is 11/1, it is truly anyone’s race. There isn’t much speed to be found in this group, so expect slower than normal fractions.
Horse (Pedigree) trainer/owner odds
MESSY MISSY (Woodman X Broad Brush X Unbridled) monimonica 9/2
Pros: Graded Stakes winner at this distance, with a career best of 102 (at this distance, 110 overall.) Ranked tenth among older dirt distance mares.
Cons: Winless in over six months, last win was in September in a listed two mile stakes race. Missy is showing a lack of a closing kick as of late. Winless over an off track.
Analysis: Missy likes to sit off the pace by over a half dozen lengths usually, and make her run around the third call. Missy is getting a bit of a freshening with this being her first start back since the end of January. Perhaps the rest will rejuvenate this six year old mare. Without much of a pace to run at she’ll need to stay close as the leader may be able to wire the field.
PADALULU (Montjeu X Dynaformer X Kingmambo) foxon3 7/1
Pros: Has a win over an off track, never been off the board on an off track either. Comes into this race off of a career best of 102, with a seven length win at this distance. Two race winning streak on the line.
Cons: Allowance winner, taking on graded stakes horses for the first time (stakes placed sprinting on the turf, not relevant to this race.)
Analysis: Padalulu is a deep closer, usually sitting over a dozen lengths behind the field. Now with this race not having a true speed horse she will have more difficulty closing in on a slower pace. Padalulu looks like she has an affinity for this distance, but in my opinion should have tried a listed stake before jumping into a grade one race.
MARTINA SIRTIS (Kingmambo X Seattle Slew X Alydar) kristof 3/1
Pros: Graded stakes placed distance runner, ranked eighty-second among dirt distance mares. Martina comes into this race off of two consecutive wins. Has a good turn off foot, seems to make up ground quickly.
Cons: 98 is her best speed figure over this distance. Winless at this distance.
Analysis: Martina Sirtis is yet another closer in the race, but seems to show a quicker turn of foot than others, which should help her today. However in her only try at this distance, she finished a disappointing third, beaten over seven lengths.
ETHELFERTH (Mineshaft X Danzig X Buckpasser) belsup 7/2
Pros: Turf to dirt switch. 101 is her best speed at this distance (104 overall.) Undefeated on off tracks.
Cons: Allowance winner, which appears to be allergic to stakes races. Likes twelve furlongs best.
Analysis: Ethelferth loves the off going, which is probably why her odds are so low. She is a closer who sits about a half dozen off the pace, and clearly makes a move around the third call. It is hard to like her when all of her stakes performances have ended poorly, never being better than fourth.
RUN FOR SUMMER (Bluegrass Cat X Northern Dancer X Roberto) pmjstable 2/1
Pros: Morning line favorite. Graded stakes winner at this distance, career best 103 speed figure (110 overall.) Amazing turn of foot.
Cons: Winless over an off track. Seems to prefer eleven furlongs or less.
Analysis: Yet another super deep closer, look for her to be almost twenty lengths off the pace, and close after the third call. Summer has an amazing turn of foot that allows her to close from far off and late for a going away victory. I would like her more if she had more than just two tries at this distance. Her last try at this distance was not what one would like to see going into a grade one.
THEYSKENS THEORY (Bernardini X Summer Squall X Storm Bird) bigcoleman 8/1
Pros: Lightly run stakes winning filly, never off the board. Career best speed figure of 109. Two race winning streak.
Cons: Never been beyond eleven and a half furlongs.
Analysis: Finally a filly who will stick closer to the pace, may even acquire the lead with such lack of pace in the field. This race will not be easy though, being her first graded race, as well as first time beyond 11.5 furlongs. Theory had her best run ever last time out, with an eleven point jump in speed figures.
HALLOWEEN NIGHT (Point Given X Green Dancer X Stop The Music) pornstar 11/1
Pros: Lone “speed” of the race. Ranked ninety-eighth in dirt routing older females. Three race winning streak, has won six of her last seven starts.
Cons: Long shot of the race. A 91 is her best speed figure at this distance (102 overall.) Winless on an off track. Allowance winner, never tried stakes before.
Analysis: Halloween Night has run this distance two times before, wiring the field easily both times. When running other distances she usually sits about a half a dozen lengths or more off the pacesetter. With the lack of pace, she may find herself on the lead once again. Which for her stakes debut may help her, if she can set a “put them to sleep” pace, she may be able to cruise wire to wire. If someone else presses her, or she tries to close off of someone else she may get stunned by the class difference.
That’s the field, not an overly talented field for a grade one, but there is potential for a few of them to become a superstar. My picks are: Run For Summer, Messy Missy, and then Halloween Night/Theyskens Theory. Good luck to all, may your horses run fast, and return to their stables safely.