Wicker Sofa Steaks G3
The Wicker Sofa Stakes is a dirt race in
1. Smokin’ Tariat 12-1
Smokin’ Tariat had only one victory in 2010 and that was back in January. During the year, he hit the board 3 times in 10 starts. These were all in a mixture of stake and graded races and his chances here don’t look too compelling. Smokin’s speeds have finally broken through the 100 barrier twice in his last three starts. Hard one to get excited about.
2. Gravey Rocks 33-1
2010 was a busy year for Gravey Rocks, as he raced 15 times and scored a record of 2-1-6. After all these races, he’s earned a rest, which he started in mid-November. He makes his return to the track and will embark into his first graded races. In non-graded stakes, he finished third three times in four starts, although these occurred in fields of 6 or fewer. His speeds have topped out in the mid-90’s which isn’t good enough to win this race. May the break from the track will help him get into the 100-range.
3. Persuasive 5-1
This speedster has been progressing very nicely. On the dirt, he is nearly flawless with a record of 6-2-5 in 15 starts. He’s moving up to his first graded race after 4 outings in the non-grade stake level, where he won twice and placed once. Most recently, he won the 5.5 furlong Duke West Challenge by wiring the field in a speed of 115. Looking good on paper, but travels around the world for first time. Have to see if this will have an impact on Persuasive.
4. Proven Commodity 4-1
Another horse that has been moving up nicely in the ranks. Proven Commodity has just completed a run of 5 stake races where he won twice and placed twice. His average speed during this run was 106 and topped out in his last start the Hoosier Run where he won with a speed of 110. Proven is showing good form and should perform well.
5. A Perfect Year 4-1
During 2010, A Perfect Year competed in 10 graded races and sports a record of 1-1-1. He ran a total l3 races during the year and only two of them did his speed drop below 100. On the flip side, he hit speeds of 110 or higher five times. He fits in this race but he has a tough time getting the job finished for some reason at the graded level.
6. Parody 7-2
Parody is the favorite in the race, but not by much. In his last 8 races, Parody has 6 races with speeds between 109 and 111with a record of 2-3-0. He’s been very steady lately and because of this, has been pegged as the fave. This is good enough to attract the services of K. Ledwith, who has won over 29% of his career starts. Could be a perfect match for each other.
7. Velodrome 4-1
Winning nearly half of his dirt starts (12 of 25), Velodrome is also 1 for 4 in graded starts on the dirt. This horse will be one of the slower starters in the race but is generally reliable to make that late move. Too, Velodrome has not put in a race with a speed below 100 since May of 2009, a tough task to achieve. Jockey C. Roser was on fire last week, winning 4 of 15 starts and delivering 11 of his rides into the top 3 spots. His fire may spread into this week.
8. Kepler of Storm 4-1
Kepler of Storm was very busy during 2010 appearing in 16 races, virtually all allowance starts, with a 9-2-1 record and collecting a purse check in every start. The year included a 5-race win streak and Kepler never went off at odds higher than 5-1. Only 3 races were below 100 during the year. He’ll be making his first start in graded company and he looks ready to go.
Many horses in this field are shipping overseas to run in this race. Last time I saw this situation, I picked a local runner and it paid off greatly as it was a longshot. With that in mind, Kepler of Storm looks best suited with these conditions and could work to his advantage.
Persuasive is the only one that shows speed in the race and could have everything his way. He comes off an eye-opening speed of 115 but is one of the shippers. He still gets my second pick.
Parody has a bunch of races with speeds at or over the 110 level. This ability cannot be ignored and I’m using him to round out the triple.