Thugg

This $50k claimer over a mile on the dirt has attracted a decent size field with a couple of useful performers amongst them. Let’s see if we can separate the contenders.

(1) Three Ire’s (SAf) => Daylami (Ire) x Not Impossible (Ire) x Grand Lodge (Ire)

Marwho Stables (10.5%/32.6%)

Three Ire’s seems to have left his heady days of 98 speed figures as a three year old well behind him. Now five, his recent form has been poor, having been well beaten in four of his last six starts. He does produce his best ratings over the mile although both his wins were sprints. If you have any money on him, expect him to be sitting towards the rear for much of the way, then hope he turns it on coming for home.

(2) Smarten Arten => Black Minnaloushe x Unbridled x Smarten

Greyhound Corporation (9.1%/29.4%)

Now nine years old, Smarten Arten looks well past his best. He changed stables recently and has had three runs for his new yard following well over a year off the track. Those efforts were well below his form from 2009 and he’ll have to show some life before any could convince me that he’s a 4/1 chance.

(3) Thugg (SAf) => Personal Hope x Seattle Slew x Red Attack

Cmcnationa Stables (13.0%/37.9%)

Thugg is a useful homebred that is probably unlucky to have recorded only two wins to date. Those wins were both in sprints but he is capable of decent figures over the mile, his last two at the trip being 96 and 100. He usually races handy, just a couple of lengths off the pace. If the distance doesn’t blunt his finishing effort, he should go close here.

(4) Divine Wolf (SAf) => Wolfhound x Halo x Fappiano

Universal Stables (13.8%/39.6%)

With seven wins from 37 starts, this mare has been fairly successfull for her connections but she has yet to see the winners’ circle with her current yard. Her speed figures have dropped since the move and a win here looks unlikely. That said, she’s certainly capable over this trip at her best and a share of the minor money isn’t out of the question.

(5) My Manshood’s Out (SAf) => Manshood (GB) x Out Of Place x Liloy (Fr)

Matrepok Stables (15.7%/46.2%)

Although not running to his form of a year ago, this interestingly named son of Manshood (pronounced Man-shood) still manages to get himself involved in the scrap for minor prize money more often than not.

(6) Chucoie (Zim) => Eton Lad (GB) x Fayruz (GB) x Tayasu Tsuyoshi (Jpn)

CoMeDy Central (11.2%/35.4%)

Since winning her maiden, this filly has been soundly trounced in three starts. She is completely outclassed at this level and is likely to struggle in all but the weakest claiming company.

(7) Oldham FC (SAf) => Fort Wood x Al Jabr x Theatrical (Ire)

88stud Stables (12.0%/37.8%)

This son of Fort Wood hasn’t run since August and, despite the stamina his sire usually imparts, doesn’t seem to be able to run the mile of todays race. His consistent 80+ speed figures, and earlier 90’s, could make him a contender but he looks much more at home over short sprints.

(8) Phone Approval (SAf) => Miesque’s Approval x Caller I.D. x Capote

Cuetec Stables (7.6%/25.9%)

This mare has run some good race for her current stable, even as recently as September, but something seems to have gone wrong with her of late. Any return to that sort of form would give her a serious chance here.

(9) Rock Bottom Form (SAf) => Saumarez (GB) x Dynafomer x Kingmambo

Universal Racing Club Inc. (11.2%/35.5%)

You can draw a line through his last run; he certainly didn’t see out the trip that day. His previous start was over exactly this trip and in the same company and it was poor. That was his first start for his current stable and he doesn’t appear to be feeling at home there just yet. He’d be a contender on previous form.

(10) During The Day (SAf) => Daylami (Ire) x Unbridled x Storm Bird

Rvd Stables (13.5%/40.6%)

This six year old consistently produces mid 80’s speed figures and is doing so for his current stable as well. He was running 90’s a year ago and 100+ as a three year old, so he’s definitely on the downtrend, but he’s not without a money chance in this company.

(11) Oosthuizen (SAf) => Trippi x Bestyoucanbe x Tactical Cat

Smokeglack Stables (13.1%/41.9%)

After winning his first two starts, Oosthuizen has failed to kick on. His recent efforts have been quite poor as he tends to fade badly, and he doesn’t look up to the task in todays field. I’d be interested in seeing how he does back in a sprint in the future.

Summary:

This race is Thugg’s to lose. Unfortunately, he does have a habit of doing just that, having finished in the runner-up box seven times while winning only twice. Provided he gets a decent ride, he looks the one to beat here.

The battle for the money spots looks wide open. I’ll narrow my top selections to During The Day, Rock Bottom Form and My Manshood’s Out but there are a few others that could sneak in there.