Turf Vimes Distaff (Bargain Bowl)

According to Bargain historian and president Knightmare the Turf Vimes Disraff is historically the slowest run Bargain Bowl event. The record is a respectable 98 speed figure set by Lot at Steak back in 2008 but the next fastest pace is all the way down at 93. Expect the speed record to be broken today as some of these girls can get up and go and I am expecting a fast speed with 100 speed figure mark being broken.

1. National Risk – Dragnil’s 5 year old mare finished in the show spot in last year’s edition of the Turf Vimes Distaff and seeks to better that placing this time around. Finished a strong second two back in the Bluebonnet when she was coming late but couldn’t get to series leader Flying Perfect. The poor performance last out in the Arc can be dismissed due to the off track so I would not be surprised to see this gal finish in the top 3 again today.

2. Flying Perfect – Lgbost’s California bred is currently leading the turf female division with 16 series points. Those points came courtesy of a dominating win I in the Bluebonnet and a just miss 2^nd in the Bargain Princess. Abissmal effort last out is a big mystery and cause for concern but I like her chances to rebound today and 5-1 odds seem more then generous, consider loading up.

3. Daisy Darling – Another astute claim from bargain president knightmare this gal finished a strong 2^nd in last years edition of this race. She struggled most of this year except for last race when she drew off in route to an easy win in a 40k claiming race. I have a hunch she is rounding back into form but I do not quite think she is up to the likes of these without a few more solid races under her belt.

4. Raise the Becon – 16-1 longshot in today’s field is already a Bargain Bowl winner she bested the boys and won the Class Ack Juvenile. Her only other race in the series was a dismal effort in the 100 Guineas but she is currently in good form as evidenced by her allowance win last out and she has earned her way into this race. Needs a speed bump to take the top spot but might be good enough to pick up a share.

5. Vatican Army – Trainer Plano’s 3 yr old daughter of Concerto has only one Bargain series race to her credit and that was a bad experience in the 100 Guineas. She has shaken off that negative experience and won 3 races since then and looks to be a different horse after she matured a bit. With likely be close to the speed and if she takes over and draws clear by a few she will be tough to run down late. If a 3 yr old is going to get a win in this race its likely to be this horse.

6. Brigerand – 7 year old Aussie bred is the old lady of todays field and has 47 races under her belt heading into today’s contest. As you’d expect she has a rich Bargain Bowl history she finished 2^nd in the 2008 Cougar Bite and 4^th in last year’s edition of this race. Her form really went south in 2010 but she has recovered just in time with two solid efforts in her last two and she is dangerous as she will be on the lead for a good part of this race. I do not think she can wire this bunch but knightmare does have a knack for winning.

7. Celestial Key – Brazilian bred adds some South American diversity to this group and she has the distinction of finishing 3^rd in her last two Bargain Bowl events. She hasn’t won since March and has struggled mightily so I can not get enthused about her chances for another top 3 finish today and odds of 6-1 feel too short vs. some of the other value available in this field.

8. Exalted Warrior – Hawkz has kept this three year old clear of the big bargain races this year and that appears to have been a wise decision. She has really come into her own in the allowance ranks and her last speed figure topped out at 104! If she can run that type of speed again she is the clear winner but she has never been able to string together back to back wins and is facing the toughest test of her career. Live on the speed fig alone but consistency is lacking to back today.

9. Lot at Steak – Today’s 5/2 favorite is a 5 year old by Snitzel and she is no stranger to bargain fans world wide. She won the 2008 edition of this race and was good enough to give the Cougar Bite a go in 2009 although she disappointed and finishing 8 ½ lengths back in 4^th. Won the Bargain Princess two back against the best of these with a 104 speed figure but then through a clunker last out finishing 6^th in the Bluebonnet. I suspect she got her bounce out of the way but still view her as a somewhat vulnerable favorite in a wide open race here today.

   Prediction: I am going to go the unorthodox route and choose Vatican Army in an upset. I will box Lot at Steak/Flying Perfect in the other two spots for the exacta and also play a 9-5 saver in case Lot at Steak can get it done once again today.