The Apple Pie
The Apple Pie is a G3 race for all horses age 3 or older. Weather conditions are reported to be sunny in
1. Flesh and Blood 10-1
Flesh and Blood is a late closing horse who has won 6 of his last 7 starts. Over his last 5 races, she has averaged a speed of 106 and has collected 3 wins at the graded stake level. He offers good value at 10-1 and worth a good look.
2. Highest Order 10-1
Highest Order put in a pair of nice efforts in allowance races with a 2nd and a win in speeds of 102 and 101 respectfully. She has 8 stake starts, including one graded, with a record of 0-2-1. I expect him to run somewhere in the middle of the field in the early stages. Not sure if he’ll cash in as he’s done his best racing at allowance level.
3. The Reformer 5-1
This horse made a switch over to the dirt this season and that has paid off. The Reformer is 3-3-0 in 7 starts on the dirt with an average speed of just over 105 in that duration. Still, he does well on the turf too, making him a very diversified horse. He has 4 stake starts with a record of 1-2-0, the only one off the board was his sole graded race. He likes to pressure the leader, but this race lacks front runners and he may be pushed into that spot., but he can do the job.
4.
Vis Vobiscum will be making his 6th start at the graded level in this race. He won his debut in March in the Town of
5. Jack Burton 9-2
This 5-year old has had a nice career on the turf and was moved over to the dirt this year with very nice results. In 8 starts, he has a record of 3-1-2. He set an eye-opening career speed mark of 115 in the non-graded Morgadio stakes, winning by over 2 strides. Speeds over his last 5 races have averaged 107. He’s co-favorite in his first graded race on the dirt and it is pretty hard to put in another effort like his last.
6. Atlantic Bolt 6-1
Over the past year, Atlantic Bolt has raced exclusively in graded stake races. He has been in a dozen races since last November and has a record of 1-0-1. He’s been consistent with recording speeds over 100 and has an average of 104 in his last 5 starts.
7. Runotentertained 13-1
In 5 graded starts, Runotentertained has yet to hit the board. Additionally, he has been in 8 non-graded stakes and has showed once. His best efforts have come in the allowance division where he is 5-6-1 in 13 starts (including maiden). This all adds up to Run being out classed in this race.
8. Rock and Fire 7-1
Rock and Fire has performed well in the allowance and lower stake levels but has been challenged in the graded races. He has a record of 0-2-0 in 14 starts in these demanding races and posted speeds of 99 in his last two races with disappointing results. Rock has scored speeds at 110 and above and if he can pop that number in this race his woes may be over.
9. Blushing Fupeg 5-1
Over his last 5 starts, Blushing Fupeg has an average speed of just over 107. Although he has a record of 1-0-1 in his 6 lifetime starts he is showing improvement. In June he won the 10f Day of Dominion (G3) with a career best speed of 115. He followed this with a third in the Gotta Fix the Sprinklers Classic and a speed of 106. Blushing has late speed and is worth a look.
10. Carry Me
As co-favorite in this race, Carry Me Ohio may be slotted in the right spot. He has a record of 2-2-0 in 11 graded starts and his speeds look sharp over his last 5 with an average of 108 which includes 3 races of 110 or higher. Jocky Atie has been used lightly this year but has a 17% winning record in 100 starts and been in the money a high 49%. May be right connection.
The Reformer looks to be in position to run on the lead and if jockey McHale (18% win) plays his cards right, could run off with the win.
Flesh and Blood has been running well and has won 6 of last 7. Top notch jockey Winter (29% win, 66% ITM) is aboard and it would not be a surprise to see an upset with this horse.
Carry Me Ohio has been in good form of late and factors in with the exotic wagers.