Wide Open Breeder Bowl Sprint – Down to the Wire?
Like most of the Breeder Bowl races on Saturday, the Sprint (Grade I) is a wide-open betting affair. The odds range from 6/1 to 25/1, with 12 of the 14 starters ranging between 6/1 and 12/1. The weatherman promises a fast track under clear skies for this championship tussle at 6 furlongs on the dirt for all horses, 3 years old and up. 13 boys and one lone girl will go for the lion’s share of the $2,000,000 purse and a big leg up on the title as 2010’s fastest sprinter. The horses by post position:
PP 1 – REBEL RING(KY) – (Storm Cat x Gone West x Seattle Slew) – The 8th ranked older dirt sprinter, this guy is bred for all speed, and speed is what you get. In 7 races this year, this ceclaim20 star has hit triple figures 6 times. And the one time he didn’t, he won anyways. He’s classy, hitting a close 2nd in 2 Grade I races, in the last 3 months. And he’s consistent too: In 28 lifetime starts, he has 22 finishes in the money. If he can get a legit pace up front, and if he can run back to his 2nd and 3rd race back, this midpack stalker can run them down on his best day. That’s a fairly wide “if”, but this one genuinely needs to be played in exotics, and will threaten even on top.
PP 2 – GOLDEN SILK(KY) – (A.P. Indy x Storm Cat x Seeking the Gold) This 4 year old from the muninn240 barn, brings in some gaudy numbers, like over $1.6 Million in lifetimes earnings, and the #3 dirt sprint ranking among older horses. That said, he hasn’t been blinding anyone with his speed figures of late, and his last 2 Grade I races have been less than stellar. Ok, they’ve been bad. He’s finished both of those with 11th place finishes. Those were a furlong longer though, so it remains to be seen if it’s about soft form, or the distance not being right. Because he also had a great Grade I win a couple of races before that, at the BB distance of 6f. We just haven’t seen much from him at this level since then. If he can run back to his earlier speeds, he can stalk or wire this field. Without seeing him handle 6f now though, I’m not sure I’d be able to trust it just yet.
PP 3 – PINCHINGDALE(FL) – (Graeme Hall x Blushing Groom(FR)) x Diamond Prospect) – The longest shot in the race, this modestly bred is the top ranked sprinter in his age group, and may be rounding into the best shape of his life, although he’s stepping way up in class for this race. This bluefox charge had three consecutive rises in speed figs, culminating in his career high last time out, albeit in a listed stakes race. He does have a win in a Grade I and a 2nd in a Grade II under his belt, but both were against 3 year olds only. Lot of question marks, but the potential to be a huge price. Will be flying at the end.
PP 4- MISS UNIVERSO(KY) – (Storm Cat x Mr. Prospector x Nijinsky II) – The only filly in the race, this royally bred venezolano trainee is coming off of a nail-biting 2nd place finish (just a ¼ length back) in a Grade I race against the boys. Normally I wouldn’t give a mortal 4 year old filly much of a shot in a race of this caliber, but that last race, plus her brilliant job two races before that in a Grade I against the girls, AND her amazing consistency (8 wins and 11 ITM from 11 starts) gives me the look of an overlay at 10/1 odds. This girl might represent a whole lot of value, based on form, speed, and style.
PP 5 – A PERFECT YEAR(KY) – (Pleasantly Perfect x Forty Niner x Summer Squall) – This brightvalr 4 year old colt’s chances depend on which horse shows up. The one who finished a close 3rd (less than a length from the winner) in the Grade I “The Old Name” two races back, or the horse who bounced to a 3rd in a listed stakes with a drop in speed figs from 109 to 98, last time out. Does his best racing up or near the front, this colt definitely has a shot on his best day, but is a tad too inconsistent for me to back. May well have an influence on the pace however.
PP 6 – FIGHTER JET(KY) – (Dehere x Forty Niner x Saratoga Six) – Until his last race, this 4 year old colt from the wistful barn made a living beating up (for the most part) unlisted stakes competition. Last time out, he moved all the way up the food chain to a Grade I, where he blithely won (although by just a head). He’s a stalker/closer in a race that, for a championship sprint, doesn’t have as much early speed as you’d think, so his chances might be a bit stretched.
PP 7 – BODDINGTON(KY) – (Ghostzapper x Dayjur x El Prado(IRE)) – This millionaire from the rapier stable has some gaudy numbers too, including a number 2 sprint ranking among older horses. But either because of the distance, or current form, he’s been vulnerable at the BB distance of 6 furlongs. Last time out, in the Grade I “The Old Name”, he flattened out to a dead last finish and a 91 speed figure. He may need the extra furlong to finish strongly, unless there’s a quicker pace up front than he’s used to. At 8/1, I’m not sure I’d play him to win, but he does have the talent to change the outcome.
PP 8 – MASTER FULL(KY) – (Forest Wildcat x Broad Brush x Alydar) – Themaster brings this 4 year old, also at 8/1, in off of a wild finish in the afore-mentioned Grade I “The Old Name”, where he held off the filly in this race, Miss Universo by a quarter length. The form is good, the style is good, and, as long as there is any sort of pace at all, this guy has a very legitimate shot at taking this race. A nice shot and nice value at 8/1. Definitely a top three pick.
PP 9 – RAINS OF CASTAMERE(KY) – (Giant’s Causeway(IRE) x Danzig x Seattle Slew) – Yet another closer, this royally bred 4 year old from the given stable might like the added distance of 7+ furlongs rather than the 6 of this one. He’s shown a propensity to eat up and spit out lengths-back on the stretch, and he has also shown the ability to put up speed figs on his best day that will compete with the best here. The problem is, unless there’s a suicide pace up front, I’m not sure this guy will be able to get his motor revved up in time to run down the stalkers. His last couple of outings against this kind of competition have been less than encouraging. Still a nice play for the back end of exotics.
PP 10 – FERNANDO HERO(KY) – (Dehere x Seeking the Gold x Danehill) – Trainer fernando brings in one of the few legit early speed threats with this 5 year old. If you throw out his last in the Grade I “The Foregone” for being 7 furlongs (his last try before that race at 7 also ended with his collapse in the stretch), then this horse has shown he has the ability to wire a Graded field on his best day. Especially in a field that is mostly stalkers and closers. If he wins, he does it from gate to wire.
PP 11 – CRANKY SQUIRREL(KY) – (Maria’s Mon x A.P. Indy x Mr. Prospector) – This horse gets my vote as best name in the field, but trainer isitingood’s millionaire isn’t just another pretty name. He’s the number one ranked older sprinter in the game today. He’s also consistent in his triple digit speed figs, to say the least, as he is going for an astounding 25 straight races of 100 or better. That said, he’s also varied quite a bit between 100 and 117. I like this guy to get a piece of the pie, but how much of it depends on who shows up on race day. After a picture-perfect run in “The Foregone” (Grade I), he stumbled a bit, at least by his gargantuan standards, in the listed stakes race his last time out, to finish 2nd, dropping from a 114 to a 108 speed fig. Nothing to hang your head about, but considering the class drop, it might be marginally worrisome. Still, a co-fave on the morning line that has to generate real interest.
PP 12 – COLOR AND LIGHT(KY) – (Awesome Again x Seattle Slew x Raise A Native) – One of the few here that might go out with Fernando Hero early is this mavrkstbl4 4 year old. The danger here is he might be a kamikaze rabbit. He’s shown some flashes of world class abilities, like a very respectable finish 6 races back in a Grade II, but since then he’s been in considerably worse class company (except for one Grade I where he was left in the dust of a 13th place finish), and he hasn’t been blowing anyone out there either, even in ungraded company. Always a possibility, but may be over his head in this one.
PP 13 – STAIRWAYTOPARADISE(KY) – (Pine Bluff x Dynaformer x Tom Rolfe) – The oldest horse in the field at 6 years old, this winner of over $1.8 million is another one of the few possible early speed horses here, and another one that will have his work cut out for him. He’s in a tough post for early speed, he’s faded badly his last three Grade I sprints (all at 6 furlongs), and he’s at an age and race number that sometimes signals the beginning of the end at this level of competition. Is he on the downside of father time? Or just getting ready to turn the corner on a new form cycle? Tough to say.
PP 14 – CREEPY CAT(KY) – (Storm Cat x Pleasantly Perfect x A.P. Indy) – The versatile style will help here, as he’s won races on the lead, as well as from midpack. Recent form is inconsistently consistent. His speeds are moderately constant, with three races in his last four, 108, and the fourth was a 106. However, the results of those four races have ranged from 1st to 6th. With this company, this landlubber trainee will have to up the speed a tick, something he has done, but not recently. Otherwise, he’ll be an also-ran.
Picks –
1st – Miss Universo – The lady upsets the big boys. This time she gets revenge on Master Full – Just barely
2nd – Master Full – Fights in the stretch, loses… may be the closest of the races of the day.
3rd – Cranky Squirrel – Flying down deep stretch as well, just short of the photo.