Millwood Cup Preview

The Millwood Cup is to be run in New South Wales this weekend, and a very strong credentialed field will assemble to chase home after the prize pool of $4,000,000. The marathon journey of 2 miles is nothing new to most of these, while a few will tackle the gruelling challenge for the first time. This classic event is a jewel in the sim crown, run on Breeder’s Cup weekend, and this year the entire field is made up of graded stakes winners.

PP1 OUT OF SPITE(KY) DYNAFORMER x NIJINSKY II x SHARPEN UP(GB) thethumb3 10/1
Winner of 10 of her 18 career starts, including her last 6, all in emphatic fashion. Her only try at the 2 miles resulted in a 9 length win. Since then, she has added 2 graded stakes to her name, including last start’s Grade II Prix Royal, which she cruised away to score by almost 4 lengths. Her 2 starts before that resulted in SPs of 107, which if she can repeat here, will make her a big threat. This is her biggest test, at her first Grade I, and against such a hot field of males. Is likely to get back in the running, and charge home late.

PP2 VOODOO SMILE(IRE) MONTJEU (IRE) x CAERLEON x DARSHAAN(ENG) texasace00 14/1
Placed at all but one of his 17 starts on turf, this 4yo went from gate to wire at his last outing, winning the 2 mile Grade III Macondo Stayer by almost 6 lengths. Before that he destroyed an allowance field of 6 by 7 1/2 length, again at 2 miles. Had a bit of trouble at his first stakes attempt, 3 starts ago, when he got to the front, but was run down in the stretch. Can go forward or settle back, and could surprise at good odds.

PP3 BLANC DE NOIRS(KY) RAHY x ZABEEL(NZ) x SHERGAR(GB) widest 8/1
Has had 2 very creditable placings at his most recent starts in Grade Is. Firstly a third in the Coalminer’s Cup, and then last start second in the Coffeefields Cup, both over 12 furlongs. Has never tried a race over 2 miles; the longest he has been is 14 furlongs, where he was placed in the Grade II Yorkshire Plate and then a rare failure in the Grade III Irish Cup. A slight query hangs over whether he can run the distance right out, and this is a tough race. Has a chance if he runs up to his best.

PP4 RED FOG(KY) SEEKING THE GOLD x THEATRICAL(IRE) x DANZIG bigspruce 9/2
Only a winner of 3 career races, but has been running some big speed figures recently that puts him right in contention here. Ground away last start to fill third place in the Grade I Ark De ComicDog over 12 furlongs and before that was outgunned finishing midfield in the Grade I Judgement International running an SP 107. The longest trip he has been is 14 furlongs, where he won the Grade II Stayer’s Dash, winning by 3 1/2 lengths with an SP 111. Could be looking for 2 miles now, and will be very hard to beat if he can run up to his recent form.

PP5 DRAGON SPUR(AUS) FLYING SPUR(AUS) x IN THE WINGS(GB) x LYPHARD asoiaf2
Comes here off a career best speed figure of 111, when finishing second in the Grade I Europe Classic, where he sat just off the pace and worked home to miss by 1/2 a length. Before that he won the Grade II Shimko Classic in Japan, scoring by almost 4 lengths. Seems to be hitting his peak at this stage of his career, having placed at each of his last 7 starts, mostly in strong company. Although the massive step up in distance will be a big test, his form suggests he will be right up for the challenge.

PP6 NOT SO KOOL AID(KY) VINDICATION x BLUSHING GROOM(FR) x SILVER BUCK iluka 14/1
Returned from 5 months off with a poor performance in the Longchamp Marathon last start, beaten by over 24 lengths. Before his break, he was well beaten in the Grade I Spring Cup, but had shown much better form prior to that, when he was placed twice in Grade I races over 2 miles. First came his third in the Ackland Cup where he improved throughout and was still strong to the end; and then he lead into the stretch but ran into one that was too good for him in the South Australian Cup. Finished second in this race 2 years ago, and could place again if he runs up to his best.

PP7 K’S STAGFLATION(KY) SMART STRIKE x DANEHILL x SADLER’S WELLS supreme 6/1
Entering here after an unbeaten streak of 4 races, all at graded level, including most recently an all the way win in the Grade II Irish Saint Legend over 14 furlongs, when he built on his lead throughout to go to the line 7 lengths in advance. Before that he was strong at the end of the Grade II The Kergorlay, when he stalked the leader and then went straight passed to win easily by almost 4 lengths. It was a similar story in each of his previous 2 starts, when he had easy victories in Grade III races. A winner of the Grade I Japanese Saint Legend, this time last year, so is proven at this class, and although he hasn’t been tested over the 2 miles, he gives every indication it will pose no problem. Should be in it for a long way.

PP8 SHINE ON THROUGH(AUS) BEL ESPRIT (AUS) x SWAIN (IRE) x COZZENE crown 11/1
Has been lightly raced this year after collecting some big races in 2009, including the Smackdown 5 over 2 miles, and then the Longchamp Marathon at his next start. Has not won a race since then. Last start he struggled to stay with them when defending his Longchamp Marathon title and he dropped out to finish over 27 lengths from the winner. Had 5 months off before that, where he finished in the money in the Grade I Spring Cup and was a creditable third in the South Australian Cup. Stablemate of NOT SO KOOL AID(KY) and has similar form to that runner. Will need to improve on his last run, but is up to this class at his best.

PP9 THE BODYGUARD(KY) ENGLISH CHANNEL x SADLER’S WELLS x LEAR FAN woette4 22/1
Another one coming here from the Longchamp where he also put in a rare poor performance, finishing in 8th position, and over 30 lengths from the winner. Before that, he got too far back in the Irish Saint Legend, but did his best work at the finish to end up in 4th position, and it was a similar story in the Grade II The Greatwood Cup where he finished second. The biggest win of his career came 4 starts back when he charged home from 16 lenghts off the lead at the half way point, to win going away, by over 4 lengths in the Grade I The Gold Glass. He meets his toughest assignment here, and it is a concern that he gets back so far, but if he is given a well timed run, he could figure.

PP10 DYLAN TOM N JERRY(IRE) DYLAN THOMAS (IRE) x MONTJEU (IRE) x RAINBOW QUEST lgbost6 11/1
Winner of three big races so far this season, starting with the Grade III The Diamond Stakes, and then the South Australian and Spring Cups. He comes here as the number 7 ranked long turf router in the sim, although he failed at his last start in the Longchamp Marathon, where he finished 6th. Two starts ago he won the Grade II Longdale Cup by 4 3/4 lengths with an SP of 110. May have been troubled by the off-track last start, and although he can run the occasional bounce, he is due to turn it back around again this week. Is likely to settle at the tail of the field, and with the track’s best jockey on board, he is sure to be charging home late.

PP11 WESTERN INSIGHT(SAF) WESTERN WINTER x SWAIN (IRE) x DYNAFORMER ceclaim11 8/1
Was never a factor last time in the Grade I Ark De ComicDog, when he got well back and finished off fairly to run 6th. Made his run together with DYLAN TOM N JERRY(IRE) in the Longdale Cup two starts back, but was not quite up to it, finishing second. Before that, he had no such problem in the Grade II The Stayer Maurice, when he motored home to win by 2 3/4 lengths in emphatic style. Got back into winning form 4 starts ago when he destroyed a weak stakes field by 6 lengths, after having not won for over 12 months. Is likely to get back again, and will be finishing strongly, but meets some tough competition here. Another one who is a definite chance if he runs up to his best.

PP12 NEW MONEY(KY) MINESHAFT x DANEHILL x FAPPIANO lenny30 7/1
Going from the widest gate is the likely leader of the field, who has led by over 10 lengths at various stages of the 2 mile journeys in his last 4 starts. Firstly, he got out to over 16 lengths in front, and was eased down to go to the line in advance by 7 3/4 lengths in the Grade II The Greatwood Cup. He followed that up with a 4 1/2 length win in the Grade III Cannon Gold Cup, and then a huge 12 1/2 length victory in the Grade II The Don’s Plastered Cup. Last time out he went out to to a lead by over 10 lengths, only to be run down and finish second in the Grade I Longchamp Marathon, but still finishing over 20 lengths ahead of 4 of the rivals he meets again here. Should lead for a long way and be hard to run down again.

In a very strong field, the leader should be NEW MONEY(KY) from the outside barrier, with VOODOO SMILE(IRE) to also go forward and press early. They should set up a cracking speed which will allow the swoopers to get right back and then charge home late.
My selections are K’S STAGFLATION(KY) to sit just off the speed and be too strong, over DYLAN TOM AND JERRY(IRE) to be flashing home late, and NEW MONEY(KY) to give a good sight out in front.

The two favourites in the early market, RED FOG(KY) and DRAGON SPUR(AUS) are going to be tough to beat, but haven’t proven themselves at the 2 miles, and so have a slight query over them.

In a race so full of highly rated runners, it would not surprise to see anything take out this year’s Millwood Cup.