The Royal Oak – G3
Another warm welcome to France for the second T16 graded at this track this week. This one is called The Royal Oak and is open for all horses, we have a few really good horses here and probably some that is trying to earn some easy points. We have 6 horses in this race that are ready to fight for the $150,000 and the stakes points.
1. LE DEMONE (20/1)(DEXTERITY x LEGAL CASE x DIAMOND SHOAL): This 3yo mare out of Danish sire Dexterity have made 9 wins in 18 starts so far. Most wins have been in Starter Allowance class, but have shown some really good speed. The new trainer so the potential and claim this mare for 10k. Looking at this horse now it seems like it was worth it. This horse is actually unbeaten at races T14 or more, and she have 5 starts in those distances. I do believe she have a chance at top-3, but the class change is to big so she will more likely be among the last horses in this race.
2. DILLINGERS GANG (6/1)(DYLAN THOMAS x FAPPIANO x SEATTLE SLEW): This 5yo out Dylan Thomas have won 3 starts in 21 races. The last races he have shown some decent speed, but is a bit untested at longer races. He have never made a start on the conditions as in this race so he will be new to that. I do believe that part of his pedigree would make him contender here, but I doubt he will win. I have him as my outsider of this race and he could have a chance at top-3, but he needs to adapt to the conditions of the race.
3. STORMIN SED (6/1)(ALKAASED x STORMIN FEVER x KING OF KINGS): Second mare of the race is sired by Alkaased from Japan. This is actually my own horse so I will not do much writing about her. This is her first start that is more then 12 furlongs and she is coming into this one with a third place in a G1 race last time. I don’t think she will be able to win, but have a small chance at top-3 if she can manage the distance!
4. CCCP (7/2)(RED BULLET x KAYF TARA x MANY A WISH): This 5yo from Florida have made 15 wins in 33 starts and that is a really good record. Actually it had seven wins in a row once, all were long race on turf. He showed pretty early as 2yo as well that he was made for route running. He is coming into this race in pretty decent form and have been solid for a long time. I do believe he has a chance at winning, but it seems like he would need a really fantastic race and some other horse would need to do a bad race. I have him ranked as the third horse over the finish line.
5. NOT SO CHEAP (1/1)(FORESTRY x PULPIT x GONE WEST): Looking at the pedigree for this one I really have a hard time understanding that he could be so amazing at this very long race. This 5yo is ranked third for horses running really long races and with BB coming next week I guess this one passed the chance to be focus on the distance it likes the best, T16 races is just amazing for this one. He have so far made 15 wins in 38 starts and earning 2,5 million dollars. Coming into this race with a win in a G1 at T16 last time. This is a superstar horse on these conditions and its not just a dice that have decided that he is the favourite of this race, I have him as my winner as well and I would be really surprised if he didn’t win this race.
6. THE REEF RETURNS (3/1)(EMPIRE MAKER x MILL REEF x NIJINSKY II): This 5yo out of Empire Maker have been running really solid over the last years. He did start his career at dirt and got claimed and the new owner have done wonders with him. Moving him to longer races and switch surface really made this horse explode! He haven’t been lightning fast on T16, but he is producing solid speed with a really good run from time to time. I have him as my third horse over the line in this race.
The winner of this race could only be one horse of the above, everything else would surprise me a lot. I do believe there are two others that will step up, but it may need a really good race from them and a bad one from the favourite. I believe the winner would need a speed around 105 and to reach a top-3 place you would need around 100. Good luck trainers!
6 horses with very different experience and coming into this race with different expectations.
This will be the top 3 from my view and I also have my outsider for the race:
1. NOT SO CHEAP
2. THE REEF RETURNS
3. CCCP
Outsider. DILLINGERS GANG
/Daniel