The Grade 1 Iceberg
A regal group of fourteen sprinters have traveled over bridges, tunnels and subways to assemble in NY today in a last ditch effort to make the Breeder’s Bowl sprint field. Some have already punched their tickets but many of today’s field need a big run today to get to the big dance in November. Should be an intriguing race as 3 yr old stars like Bogos face established older champions like StairwayToParadise in a battle for simulated supremacy.
1. Starring Role – Fellow Delawarean Desperado’s 4 year old son of King’s Best has a turf pedigree through and through and while he has been respectable on that surface in 4 lifetime tries he has done his best running on dirt. Has shown big talent since his 3 year old yr when he ran a strong 2nd in the Prince Knight Stakes and has an open stakes win in April of this year. Has given it a go in several big races and while he has run respectable he has not taken the next step forward to show he is within the elite of the division. His recent form seems good but he is going to need to take that next step forward to hit the board today.
2. Dunwich – Six year old son of Rainbow Quest was brought along patiently by his connections early in his career and that meticulous approach has been rewarded. Some less patient players would have placed him in claims earlier in his career but he has now become a solid stakes runner showing simulated patience is indeed a virtue. Scored his only lifetime graded win back in April in the Grade 3 Candlelight in Canada at 7 furlongs which is my chief concern preventing me from backing him too strongly today. He appears to thrive in the 7-7.5f range so I have to question if 6 furlongs is going to yield optimum results.
3. Fighter Jet – Four year old Super trained colt is a tribute to proven sim nicks as he is a Dehere X Forty Niner which is a proven performer year after year. This colt is 18 for 27 ITM including 8 wins the biggest of which was a G3 win in the tribute to baseball rat Jose Canseco the G3 El Canseco. Fighter Jet actually has the opposite concern as Dunwich, 6 furlongs may actually be further then his optimum distance of 5-5.5 furlongs. Recent form has been excellent and a solid showing will propel this 22 ranked sprinter to the Breeder’s Bowl next time out.
4. Willie Colon – I thought Willie Colon was the criminal who cost Michael Dukakis the election a few year’s back but a quick google search shows me it is actually a famous salsero from Puerto Rico, my mistake. This four year old colt is royally bred being a Gone West X Northern Dancer X Alydar it is a bit interesting he does not prefer a classic distance but you must take what the sim gods give you and run with it. He has two open stakes wins to his credit including a solid 112 speed figure two back that would put him right in the midst today. Gets a major class test but for some reason my magic 8 ball thinks he is going to pass. Run well today? Outlook likely..
5. Joy Blues and Slew – Teejay’s four year old Kitten’s Joy colt is currently ranked 21st in the division so I am sure he is anxiously biting his nails and singing Jimmy Buffet’s Come Monday to see if he will get his Breeder’s Bowl ticket punched. Colt has 8 lifetime wins in 18 races including 5 stakes wins two of the graded variety. Clearly, class will not be a problem and he is the oddsmaker’s co 2nd favorite at 8-1 odds today. Expect a big race an in the money finish and a ticket to the big dance TJ.
6. Spanish Caravan – Flying Spur colt has a two race win streak he brings into this race and his recent speed figures give every reason to hope he can make it 3 in a row today. This colt oozed talent from the get go posting a blazing 92 speed figure in his 2nd lifetime race at 2 (holy smokes). Has 4 stakes wins to his credit but is still searching for that coveted graded win although if he had been placed a bit more ambitiously he may have gotten it long ago. Could break through today but it won’t be the easiest task against the best of the best.
7. Bogos – Boble’s 3 yr old Forestry colt missed graded glory at 2 by a mere nose but made good on his potential at 3 by capturing the coveted Prince’s Knight Stakes at Saratoga last out posting a massive 116 speed figure in the process. May prefer 7-8 furlongs vs. today’s distance but as the 3rd ranked sprinter in the division he had to see where he stood at 6 furlongs to determine his next steps. Expect a big run but he may run out of real estate.
8. Rehearse the Verse – Yours truly brings you the most over his head runner in today’s event who is also today’s long shot at 15-1. Is a babe in the woods with just 12 lifetime starts but if this race would have come up off I would have been intrigued with his chances as he had a massive romp in the slop in Delaware back in April. Coming off a grass prep adds a little bit of intrigue but only a little as he is not yet ready for the likes of these.
9. Rains of Castamere – Given’s 4 yr old Giant’s Causeway with a classic pedigree has proven an able runner with ability in both sprints and routes, turf and dirt. He is literally a jack of all trades and already has 4 lifetime stakes wins to his credit including the G2 Commonwealth. Despite his respectable 3rd two back in The Binger he appears to prefer longer then 6 furlongs and would prefer this be contested at 6.5-7 furlongs. I know it is nit picking but from my observation sprinters are often very particular about their preferences and it can easily mean the difference between glory or being an also ran.
10. K’s Samitier – I am not really sure what a Samitier is (perhaps named after a soccer player?) but regardless K has one and it is yet another Giant’s Causeway. This five year old colt is 21 for 26 ITM lifetime which includes 4 open stakes wins. Would have been an absolute beast on an off track as he is 6-5-0-1 lifetime but alas it was not to be. Has been knocking on the door for his first graded stakes win and what would be a better time then now?
11. Near the Knuckle – Gipper’s intriguingly named 5 year old son of Dayjur is a fine runner with 13 wins in 36 lifetime races but nearly all of those have come in allowance events and he hasn’t had a stakes try since February when he was a distant 10th. A nice earner but not today at this level.
12. StairwayToParadise – Tulloch’s six year old son of Pine Bluff is the 4th ranked runner in the division and already has his ticket to the Breeder’s Bowl paid for. Colt has been lightly raced this year with just 3 races and perhaps that explains his negative recent form. These concerns about form give me a great pause and unless they turn around I think this champion sprinter could struggle today.
13. Creepy Cat – Snyder Stables were wise and bred a few Storm Cat’s in his last few crops. That effort paid off big time especially considering this four year old has 6 wins in 13 lifetime starts and has already earned over 1 million dollars. Expect another big run from this 10th ranked contender and don’t be surprise with an ITM finish that locks his spot for November’s big day.
14. Fourth and Forever – This Maryland bred son of Waquoit is adding some sire diversity to today’s race and that is always good to see. He has 11 wins in 38 lifetime races and earnings of 800,000$. He is still searching for his career defining win after several massive 2nd and 3rd place efforts in big time races and his recent form gives hope that today may be that day. Is currently ranked 9th in the division but a lot of those points are rolling off soon so he needs a big effort today.
Outlook:
There are very few toss outs in this race I firmly believe at least 10 of these horses are live contenders. That being said I have to pick a trifecta and here are my choices:
3rd – Bogos – Talented 3 yr old picks up the show spot with a big late charge
2nd – Creepy Cat – Son of Storm Cat is in fine form and should fire big today.
1st – Joy Blues and Slew – Just a hunch he gets TJ a Breeder’s Bowl contender.
Good luck to all the connections and here is wishing you a Breeder’s Bowl run!