Ark Trail – G3
Welcome to (Royal) Berkshire in England! We are here to witness the only Graded Stakes for the track this week. It is called Ark Trail and is a G3 run over 11 furlongs on the green grass. The race is open for all horses that are 3yo or older. In this race we have 8 horses, 7 of them are male horses and 1 is female. Lets hope they are all ready to fight for the $150,000.
1. XMOBE (5/1)(DYNAFORMER x COZZENE x DISTANT VIEW):This light grey horse out of Dynaformer have started 22 times and won 3 of these. Started as 2yo but did find it really tough winning, it almost took 1,5 year before this horse won his first race, in his 15th start he won. He does seem to have matured a lot after that though. The last races on turf route he have made some really good speed numbers, 100, 104, 102, 100 and 104. So he is coming to this prepared, I do believe his way of struggling winning still needs to be changed, so he have a chance at the top-3 positions, but I doubt he will win.
2. ARTISTE (4/1)(GHOSTZAPPER x CRYPTOCLEARANCE x EL PRADO):This is the only mare of the race an she is 4yo and been racing against the boys before so she is not new to this. She have made 1,6 million dollars so far and that is pretty good. 8 wins at 25 starts so far and she will probably earn some more before she will continue with breeding. It seems like she likes really long races so this may a bit short for her, but she have some good speed at the distance. I will have her as my second horse over the finish line and I do also believe she have a good chance at winning as well.
3. WANING RAINBOW (8/1)(RAINBOW QUEST x IRISH RIVE x GREEN DANCER):This 5yo colt out of Rainbow Quest have only won 2 starts in the career and that with 24 starts overall. He started his career with pretty decent speed numbers, but he is still a bit uneven and I don’t believe he have found what distance is best for him. The best results have come from the same conditions as we have for this race, so we may see some improvement here today, but I guess the owner should be really pleased with a top-5 position today and I don’t think he will be anyway near the leaders for this race.
4. STEEL KNIGHT (7/1)(A.P. INDY x SADLER’S WELLS x BUCKPASSER):This 5yo probably have the nicest looking pedigree in this line up, both influence of A.P. Indy and Sadler’s Wells. He have so far made 24 starts in his career and winning 7 of them. He have been 10 times on the turf track and won 2. The trainer have switched back and fourth a few times, but this horse haven’t really shown what he likes best, his best performances are on race that have been over 2 miles, so maybe this is a bit to short for him. We will have to see, but I doubt he should be able to win, but a second or a third should be within reach.
5. BEATTLE LOIS (4/1)(GREEN DESERT x BLACK TIE AFFAIR x EXCLUSIVE FLING):This Green Desert sired 4yo have made 23 starts and winning 7 so far. He have been really solid the last year, but he haven’t really shown any winner speed in this class. As before this field may be a bit weaker then normal graded fields are and therefore the trainer see the opportunity to get some stakes points. I do believe that he have produce some solid numbers, but only twice over 105 would make it hard to win, but a top-3 position is near if he can build on the 102 last race.
6. LOOK OUT IM COMING (7/2)(VINDICATION x DANZIG x ROBERTO):Some nice genes here for this 4yo out of Vindication. He have made 22 starts but only won 4 of them, so he had a hard time winning. After struggling with the Maiden class for awhile he swooshed past the allowance class, but he had a hard time changing to stakes and graded winners, he have both places and shows from stakes, but no win yet. He will most likely have a chance in this race, but I do believe he needs to be more solid and produce a really good speed for the win. I have him as my third horse in this race, but he needs to improve if he is to become a winner at this level.
7. LONG KNIFE (13/1)(EMPIRE MAKER x CAERLEON x IRISH RIVER):This 4yo out of Empire Maker is the lightest raced horse in this field of 8 and have a few owners during his career. Did start with a win in his first race and moved on the allowance class without really getting it done. He was moved into the claim class and started improving the speed a lot. He may like it even longer the 11 furlongs, but since this field is a bit weak I would say the owner is trying to get some results at shorter track as well. Last race he did 101 in an open allowance over 10,5 furlongs. I do believe we haven’t seen the best from him yet and it is still to come, if he can continue improving he may win this race so I consider this my outsider of the race.
8. IT’S A WRAP (9/2)(SADLER’S WELLS x MISWAKI x ROYAL ACADEMY):This 4yo out of Sadler’s Wells have been racing some at the dirt track and have recently switched to turf with some success. He was pretty decent at the dirt, but struggled winning races so he was switched to turf and the last three races on turf he have had speed numbers as 105, 95 and 105. He started as 2yo on the turf track, but after three races there the trainer switched to dirt and he seemed to like it more, now back at turf again he seems to like the turf more. He maybe just needed to mature a bit. He have raced a total of 19 races so far and won 5 of them. I do believe his last performances shows that he is ready for this and I will have him as my winner of this race.
I would say that it is actually a pretty weak field in this graded race, but that also makes it interesting! The horse that could improve 2-5 speed numbers would be able to win or be top-3. I would say that the winner of the field would require around 105-108 to win, and to be top-3 you should be around 105. Good luck all horses and trainers!
Nice pedigrees without any superstar horse, who will take the next step to maybe become a star?
This will be the top 3 from my view and I also have my outsider for the race:
1. IT’S A WRAP
2. ARTISTE
3. LOOK OUT IM COMING
Outsider. LONG KNIFE
/Daniel