The I Can’t Rhyme – G3
Welcome to France and Paris! There are two graded stakes at the track this week, two G3 stakes and there are also 2 regular stakes. This race is called The I Can’t Rhyme Stakes and is run over 10 furlongs on the turf track and open for all horses that are 3yo or more. The track looks to be in normal shape, so hopefully these 7 hungry horses will put up a real fight for the $150,000!
1. LAMBASTE (4/1)(DENOUNCE x THE MINSTREL x ELA-MANA-MOU):This 5yo out of sire Denounce have made 9 wins in 26 starts, earning above 1 million, that is pretty good for a bargain sire. He had a hard time winning lately though, no wins in the last 6 months, but he have produced some good speed during that time anyway, been in the money spots almost every race. He is coming to this race with the speed 107, 107, 104 and 105, so he can hurt the others if he have a good day. I do believe that he will only be a threat though be he is my outsider.
2. OVER EXPOSED (9/2)(COMMANDS x STORM CAT x PLEASANT COLONY):This 4yo was turned to turf again after almost racing exclusive on dirt for awhile and the switch made this horse sparkle a bit. The three starts he have made on turf since the switch have been really good starts, doing 110, 105 and 107. He have been raced 22 times, 11 on turf and 11 on dirt, so far he have more wins on dirt then turf but I think it will change looking into the future. He finished second in the last race that was a G2 over 10 furlongs and I do think that he will be the second horse over the line in this race as well. I really like these versatile horses.
3. CYRNO (6/1)(KINGMAMBO x JOYEUX DANSEUR x KRIS S.):This 4yo out if Kingmambo have done 18 starts over the years, including 5 wins and 6 places of those. Over the last 7-8 races he have been pretty solid except one start that was below three digit speed. He is coming into this race with a second place in a G3 race over 10 furlongs last and have some solid results a few months before that. I do believe he have the speed to do a really fine result here, I doubt that he can produce winning speed though, but it should be enough to a top-3 position. I will have this horse as my 3rd horse over the goal line.
4. JUBBLY (4/1)(SHAMARDAL x RED BULLET x SEATTLE SLEW):This 5yo seems to be sort of an off-track specialist, he have made 9 starts on off-track and winning 3 of them, add another 3 places as well. You may think that 3 wins out of 9 starts shouldn’t make him a specialist, but the races have been pretty tough. I do belive that he produce slightly better numbers on the off-track so this race may just be to tough for him, he have though made some good numbers at the normal track, but I doubt it will be enough. He should have a chance at top-3 but I think the 1st place is a bit to tough.
5. SPARTIATE (6/1)(PIVOTAL x DUBAI MILLENNIUM x CAERLEON):This Pivotal sired horse is coming to this race with only 1 win in the last 12 months, but the win was a really nice one doing 114 on the same conditions as this race. He had some decent speed in the last races, but it seems like this horse has put his best racing behind him. He made 34 starts so far this year and winning 7 of them, so he had a good career so far, I do believe he won’t be able to produce winner speed in this race, but if he can do as he have done in the last few races he could be top-3 with a bit of luck.
6. STORMIN JONES (3/1)(STORM CAT x SEEKING THE GOLD x SEATTLE DANCER):This 4yo out of Storm Cat has made 14 starts and won 6 of them, then you can add another 3+3 in places and shows. He started racing at 3 so I do believe that this horse will be racing for another 2-3 years. I also believe it has the best racing in front of him. Looking at the last 6 starts he have made some amazing speed, 105, 116, 108 and 114 is his last 4 starts, within those starts he have won two G3 races so he is coming here with really good form! I think this very nice 4yo is the winner when the 10 furlongs have been passed.
7. DANEHRO (9/2)(LONHRO x DANEHILL DANCER x RED RANSOM):This 5yo out of Lonhro have made 34 starts in the career so far and managed 10 wins and another 6+4 places and shows, he have made over 2 million dollars. He probably have his best racing behind him for around a year ago when he made some really nice wins in all kinds of graded races. I do think it is a bit strange that this horse haven’t been tested on longer races then 10,5 furlongs and that have happened the last 3 races. I would test him on a bit longer as well, but the trainer maybe is pleased with the results, he won a stakes three races back. I do believe he will have a chance at the top-3, but would really need some extra to find back to the winning speed he had a year ago!
7 really good horses here, some of them had a hard time lately and will need to step up to be able to finish top-3. I would say that all horses have a chance of the top-3 but I think that 3 of the horses will be able to be winners at the end. For a win I would say that 110 is needed and a top-3 the horse would need to make 105+. Good luck!
The 4yo will be before the 5yo in this race, they are looking stronger! Youth rulez!
This will be the top 3 from my view and I also have my outsider for the race:
1. STORMIN JONES
2. OVER EXPOSED
3. CYRNO
Outsider. LAMBASTE
/Daniel