The Monster Mash
The Monster Mash is making is being raced for the second straight year in
1 Past Denials 7-1
Past Denials put in a career best effort in his last start, a lower grade stake race. He went 12f with a speed of 112 running out of real estate with a late charge and had to settle for second. That was also his longest race of his career. Past Denials adds another quarter mile and he should handle the extra distance without difficulty. This is also his first graded race which is always a concern, but I feel he has upset potential.
2. Stormonthehorizon 6-1
Storm is also adding some distance and trying 14f for the first time. He’s appeared in two graded races (one on dirt and turf each) finishing well back in each. From September 2009 through May 2010 Storm won 7 consecutive races at the primarily at the allowance level with a pair of races with speeds over 110. He’s capable of hitting the speed that will be required to win this race, but his performance in the graded level needs some polishing.
3.
In 4 graded starts,
4. Board of Governors 13-1
Board of Governors brings a 3-race win streak into this race, which includes his sole graded start (g3) which he won at 11 furlongs with a speed of 104 in his most recent start. He has never gone further than 11f, thus added 3 more poles to pass by in this race. The last race was easy, as he wasn’t challenged in his gate-to-wire run. He loves to run on the lead and will need to fight Haack Attack in this race. I don’t think he’ll have thing his way this time out.
5. As Wells Mambo 27-1
The old timer in this race is the 8-year old As Wells Mambo. He has won 11 races over his 38 career starts. In 6 graded starts, he has finished 2nd twice. His speeds have been on the low side, hitting 100 once since this past January. He’s had a good career, but hd just doesn’t look to be up to the demands of graded racing anymore.
6. My Destingy 5-1
My Destiny comes off a monster second in a non-graded stakes, running 11f in a speed of 116. He has 7 graded stake races under his belt with a record of 1-1-1. It should be noted that the three “in-the-money” races were in his four most recent graded starts, showing vast improvement. The one graded race, in his last 4 graded starts, where he was off the board was in a 16f race which may have been too far for him. He has not tried 14f before, but 12f seems to suit well. I’m throwing out the 16f, as I believe he just ran a bad race. He shined in his last start and this late closer will be one to fear.
7. Marengo 4-1
Marengo is tagged as the favorite in this race and after his last performance, it makes some sense. He ran in a non-graded stake race, going 11 furlongs and dominating his way to the wire with a two-plus length victory with a lightning speed of 119. 2010 has been a great season with Marengo boasting a record of 4-2-2 in 8 starts. He’ll probably lay off the lead and close hard. He won on this track almost a year ago and will be a contender. Only concern…this is his first graded race start. But his last 6 races are speeds of 105 and higher, with three over 110, which still makes him a contender.
8. Now pray 17-1
At the end of 2009, Nowpray won a pair of graded races at a 2-mile distance. 2010 has not been a good season for this horse, at least in stake races. 5 starts (includes graded & non-graded), Nowpray hasn’t been close to hitting the board. He’s gone distance from 12f up to 16 during this season. He does have two wins this year, both in allowance races. He’s struggling too much this year to support in this race.
9. Haack Attack 9-1
An experienced contender in this race is Haack Attack, who has won 17 races in 45 lifetime starts, and in the money 31 times. He has 6 graded starts with a record of 1-2-0. he has four starts on this track and a record of 1-1-1, much of it as a 2-year old. Haack likes to set the pace and will be challenged by Board of Governors for this spot. But it’s been a long time since Haack has hit a speed over 110, and that looks like the benchmark needed to win this race, making him look unlikely.
10. Irius 11-1
Irius had a slow start in his racing career, hitting the board twice in his first 10 starts. Since that start, he’s hit the board 16 of his last 19 outings. He has won his last 3 races, most recently his sole graded race (14f, G3) which he established his career speed record of 110. He’s been racing well, but hasn’t raced a field of 10 or more horses since early 2009. Past history shows that Irius has struggled in larger fields, but with an asterisk…those races were around a mile or less and in his 1st 10 career starts before he found the liking to routes. Longshot players may like this one.
11. Thirty Four in Red 5-1
This horse is very diversified, able to run successfully on both dirt and turf. Thirty Four in Red has raced 14 times in graded races (both surfaces) and a record of 4-4-2. His last start on the dirt was in June where he finished 2nd in a G1 race at 14 furlongs with a speed of 112. Thirty Four in Red is a master at the 14f distance, hitting the board in all but one of his 12 career starts. Do not ignore in the exotics!
SELECTIONS:
My Destiny gets my pick. I think he can handle the distance and has been performing well. Thirty Four in Red is consistent and should get a good run from the top notch jockey on board. Marengo may be the real thing as he takes his shot in his first graded race. His speed numbers are impressive, to say the least.