CA Classic Draws 11
The headliner of a fine card full of stakes races at California this Saturday at California, the 10-furlong Grade 1 CA Classic boasts a strong field of 11 well-established stars. Featuring four millionaires including the 2009 CA Classic champ, SILVER STAR ROAD, this battle over the California dirt track should be a good one to watch.
ROCK AND FIRE makes his pitch from the rail at 7/1. The willyam37 trainee by Big Brown needs only to earn any part of today’s purse to push his bankroll over the million mark. A repeat of his strong performance in the G2 Gotta Fix The Sprinklers Classic should be enough to accomplish the feat, and even just a small improvement on that race could get this 5yo into the winner’s circle.
I TELL LIES certainly likes to win races, with five of his last six resulting in trips to the winner’s circle. However, lenny3‘s 4yo son of Distorted Humor has never hit the board in a graded stakes. Is his current strong form enough to push him into the elite? Or is he just outgunned at the top levels? We’ll get an answer today. He’s also 7/1, so the CPU thinks he’s got a shot.
SILVER STAR ROAD, last year’s CA Classic champ, is yet another 7/1 choice. He comes off a nine-week layoff following a disappointing 6th-place run in the Movieland Shiny Cup; the rest could do the onyourmark trainee a bit of good. The 5yo son of Silver Train, earner of $3.8 million, has the game to do this, but is he sharp enough?
SILVERGORE is next, a 9/1 shot who comes from the bigarnie barn. This 5yo son of Silver Deputy has been in the thick of things often this year while facing nothing but Graded company, but has been unable to break through to the winner’s circle since last August. He took a bit of a rest a few races back, and his best effort of the year came in his comebacker, the G1 Barry Foster at 9 furlongs. Unfortunately, he showed little in the next race, the G1 Pilgrim Tribute Peace Stakes. His speed ratings have been slipping a bit lately, and his best might be behind him now. However, one thing I have noticed in my many years playing this game is that most of my better horses have had a string of 2 to 4 big races just before their final fade off-form. Maybe this guy’s big-race string is around the corner…
ARX FATALIS is obviously the only pure front-runner in this race, and his last speed rating is strong. However, trainer newastin12 has picked a tough spot for the Graded-stakes debut by his 4yo son of Seeking The Gold. While it will be no surprise to see this guy in front by 5 lengths on the far turn, that homestretch is going to look VERY long for the 9/1 shot. Can he hang on for a piece or maybe win? Should be interesting…
Looking at the pedigree of DEEPROUTE.COM, a 5yo son of Deep Impact out of a Sadler’s Wells mare, you’d think “pretty turfy”, huh? Well, he has run pretty well on the sod, but trainer testcase quickly found that his colt is even better on the dirt. The 6/1 co-favorite comes off two consecutive strong wins, the most recent being the G2 Gotta Fix The Sprinklers Classic over ROCK AND FIRE.
BLUSHING FUPEG was the third one to Fix Those Darn Sprinklers in that key race. Should this son of Fusaichi Pegasus run back to his previous effort in a G3 at Ontario, he could be very dangerous here for trainer bobangod at 7/1.
SUMMER STRUCK, at 8/1, is the top pick by the handicapping tool at Yoss’s Simtools. It’s not hard to see why, as this son of Smart Strike dominated a small stakes against a pretty good field at this track last out. The redbullet5 trainee won his only Graded try, in his previous outing. This one look like a true up-and-comer.
THIS CALLING won a minor stakes last time out in impressive fashion, but this field is quite a bit tougher. However, the arse2007 trainee has beaten some strong field at times in the past, and the 5yo son of Sadler’s Wells would be no major surprise today.
WELL GROOMED is the other 6/1 favorite in here but the odds seem a bit low, considering that this son of Seeking The Gold has chased many of these home recently, and that he has generally disappointed trainer super3 in graded races, other than a good-track win in a G3 a few months ago. Still, he has been impressive in almost all of his non-graded starts lately.
On the other hand, the 12/1 odds on DEMECO seem quite a bit low. The $6.3 million winner won his last two starts, both at this track; a 12/1 upset in the G1 Movieland Shiny Cup in June followed by a ridiculously easy allowance win. Can he pull off the big CA summer double? Trainer fatattack has procured the services of top rider F Gossett, who has been aboard for both of the previous wins by this 5yo Awesome Again offspring.
Okay, time for some semi-serious handicapping on my part…
DEMECO is a “live” longshot, and is my choice to pull off the win. Leading rider, loves the track… Very tough, but this is a loaded race, and just about anyone could take this…
DEEPROUTE.COM should celebrate the opening of football season by taking home 2nd prize.
ARX FATALIS is my pick to hang on for the 3rd spot.
Good luck at the races!