Birmington Stakes
The 11th running of the Spa’s Grade I Birmingham has again attracted a fine field of three-year-old fillies, despite having only one runner ranked in the top ten.
This race has a rich history. Four of its champions have been winners of Triple Tiara races, including hall of famer Krishna. Last year’s winner The Word is currently ranked number six in the world.
Here is a look at the field:
PP1 MOST NOTED(NY) (WELL NOTED x AMERICAN BRASS x SEATTLE SLEW) bred and trained by kindone2 (Kindone Stables, 5%) Style: P, Odds: 11-1
Modestly bred filly comes in on a four-race win streak. The races were all allowances, and her speed figures were well below most of the others’ here, but she won them all handily. There is a common belief that when a horse wins by two or more lengths she was capable of faster. No previous winner of the Birmingham prepped in an allowance race, and Noted’s lone stakes try, a March sprint, was terrible, so she is up against several factors, yet she carries the hope of the everyman trainers in the game.
PP 2 IDAAN(IRE) (GALILEO(IRE) x A.P. INDY x SHARPEN UP(GB)) bred and trained by given2 (Given Stables: Fire and Bood, 29%) Style: S, Odds: 8-1
Lightly raced filly has been improving rapidly for a top barn. Two of the last three winners of the Birmingham came out of the Players Club National Oaks, the race where this one picked up her third straight second. She’ll have to try to turn the tables on Apache Missile, who had a better finishing kick, but with continued improvement, she would be no surprise.
PP 3 SEPTEMBER DAWN(KY) (JOHANNESBURG x UNBRIDLED x ROBERTO) bred and trained by john7897 (John5539 Stables, 11%), Style: S, Odds: 5-1
After an impressive pair of wins in May and June, this filly was looking unstoppable, and she entered the Players Club National Oaks as the favorite. But her closing kick was missing that day, and she was well beaten by a couple in here and others. She still has won half of her races and a return to her June form probably makes her the one to beat today, but excusing a last race is a risky strategy at these short odds.
PP 4 ON THE RAMPAGE(ENG) (NEW APPROACH (IRE) x FORESTRY x GONE WEST) bred and trained by desimster (Shamrock Stables, 15%), Style: P, Odds: 17-1
Sophomore Sire already has a couple GW runners; this one hopes to become the third. She won for fun against an allowance field last time and will have to make a big improvement to be a factor here. She has won a stakes, though that was turf sprint as a two-year-old. Her connections seem confident. They certainly know what they’re up against, as she wasn’t entered until 40 minutes before entries closed. Jockey’s having a decent year.
PP 5 APACHE MISSILE(KY) (INDIAN CHARLIE x SUNDAY SILENCE x BOLD RULER) bred and trained by blazsadcpo (MTK and GALLOPLAZ SIM Joint Venture, 16%), Style: S, Odds: 11-1
In last year’s Birmingham there was a filly that showed a marked improvement in her speed figures in winning the Grade I Players Club National Oaks. The BTB writer who covered the race has probably never correctly predicted a winner. He hemmed and hawed finally picked against that filly, who of course went on to win. So what do we have here? Missile showed a big improvement in speed figures last time in winning the Grade I Players Club National Oaks. There are some limitations to the parallel. Missile’s improved speed figure does not rank as one of the highest in this year’s field, and she is still a longshot. But still.
PP 6 LEMON PHARGO(KY) (LEMON DROP KID x PHARLY(FR) x SADLER’S WELLS) bred and trained by rollsally (Rollsally Stables, 15%), Style: P, Odds: 8-1
The next three fillies all faced each other last time in the Grade I Players Club International Oaks. It was an unusual Grade I in that not a single filly in the field possessed a graded win. Even if it wasn’t an impressive field, it was an impressive performance by this daughter of a multiple stakes winning mare, as she rolled to a comfortable win. That now gives her seven wins and three seconds in 10 dirt starts. She’s been very well handled and gets the jockey who won this race last year.
PP 7 FINANCIAL EXPRESS(GER) (MONSUN(GER) x KRIS S. x DEPUTY MINISTER) bred and trained by icbomber5 (The Evil Empire, 26%), Style: P/E, Odds: 13-1
This one battled early in the Players Club International but faded late. That seems the most likely scenario again today, but it would be dangerous to totally dismiss her chances. She still has four wins in only six dirt starts and most importantly a remarkable trainer who won this race twice in the past three years, including a stakes record tying win by a 14-1 longshot.
PP 8 CODE OF HAMMURABI(KY) (HEATSEEKER (IRE) x EMPIRE MAKER x SEATTLE SLEW) bred and trained by wtas02 (Dixiedotco Racing, 26%), Style: P, Odds: 7-1
She should be just off the early leaders and, with only an anomalous April race on her record, she doesn’t lose ground to many. She did get passed by Lemon Phargo last time, but she’s certainly capable of turning those tables. Her form cycle appears prime for peaking, and there is no trainer in the world better than hers. Oh, and kudos on the name for this daughter of South of Babylon.
PP 9 DYNASWAIN(KY) DYNAFORMER x SWAIN (IRE) x SEATTLE SLEW) bred and trained by unreal (Jef’s Thoroughbred Club, 20%), Style: S, Odds: 21-1
After winning three graded stakes as a two-year-old, she failed to progress in her sophomore year. Recently she’s been running slower than she did last November, and that’s not a good sign. Her last two races came against very weak four-horse allowance fields. She did crush those fields but in very slow time. Again, maybe she could have run much faster if she had to. She still has a top twenty ranking and the confidence of a very competent trainer.
PP 10 ZENACIOUS(KY) (STREET CRY (IRE) x KRIS S. x SEATTLE SLEW) bred and trained by blazsadcpo (MTK and GALLOPLAZ SIM Joint Venture, 16%) Style: E, Odds: 10-1
This one probably has the best early speed in the field and should be able to dictate the pace. The rest of the prognosis is not so good. It would be a bit of a surprise if she were to turn that early speed into a win here. She’s finished out of the money in her past three races and has been fading late. Now she takes a huge jump in class, adds a quarter mile when she’s been fading in shorter, and faces a field full of fillies that can easily churn out triple digit speed figures – something that she’s never done.
PP 11 ACID RAIN COT(KY) (STORMY ATLANTIC x DISTORTED HUMOR x DIXIELAND BAND) bred and trained by cothill (Cothill Stables, 14%), Style: S, Odds: 5-1
She was a contender in all three Triple Tiara races, finishing second in the Middle Flower and in the front half of the fields in both bookend races. It seems to me that the wear from qualifying for and running those three races takes its toll, and it is common to see some regression in form for a couple months. That explains her subpar performance last time, finishing second in an allowance as a 7-5 favorite. You can make a case that she is the best filly in this race, even though she doesn’t have nearly the winning percentage as some others, but I would wait another month or so before I picked her on top. I am prepared to be wrong again.
PP 12 UNION JACK FLYER(KY) (A.P. INDY x AWESOME AGAIN x STORM CAT) bred and trained by poowillck (ScotsAnglo, 19%), Style: S, Odds 4-1*
After a nice third in the Bluegrass Oaks, she skipped the Middle Flower only to run a disappointing race in the Chestnut. Though it was only here sixth lifetime start, perhaps the efforts in qualifying for and running well in the Oaks had taken their toll. If so a seven week freshening seems to be just what she needed. Her big late run against the boys in the Grade II Swamps came up just short but helped her earn a speed figure that tops this field. The race also raised her to a top ten ranking and that helped her procure the dominant jockey at the track. She’s a deserving favorite.
Summary. As usual I have convinced myself that about eight of these fillies deserve a top pick. I’ll go with Lemon Phargo / Apache Missile / Code of Hammurabi. Oh, and one last thing. Scan the breedings here. Celebrate the diversity.