Sword Swallower

This weekend, the Sword Swallower Stakes tops the card in upstate NY.   The race is open to all horses age 3 and over and they will be competing for a purse of  $500,000.   This a turf race with a distance of a mile and a half.  Third ranked Carnival of Love in Turf Long Distance racing is on hand for this race and will try to move up to the top position with a win in this race.  Last years winner, Winter Quest, is making a return appearance to the track with eyes on securing another Sword Swallower cup and the money that goes with it.

1.  Grand Ball   5-1

This race has no pace setters in it and Grand Ball could be one of two horses I see going to the front.  He’s usually within a handful of lengths of the leader in most of his races, but the question is will he be able to wire the field, something he hasn’t tried before.  Other than Stage School, the rest of the entrants are slow pokes in leaving the gate.  This year, Grand Ball has won 3 of 5 graded starts and has sported speeds of 111 and 113 in two of those victories.  He’s 10 of 13 in hitting the board on the turf.  He’ll be a factor if he can stay off the lead.  If he goes for the lead or gets into a battle with any other horse early on, he may be doomed.  It’s a toss up on this one.

2.  Winter Quest  5-1

Winter Quest is the reigning champion of the Sword Swallower, scoring a 4 length victory in a very competitive field in a speed of 111.   Two races after winning last August, Winter Quest appeared in a short field race of 4 horses that lacked early speed.  He went on the crusade trying to wire the field and ended up paying dearly finishing last.  I don’t see that being tried again for a horse who likes to sit in the back.  Winter has a strong late close, but he hasn’t won a race since winning last year’s Sword Swallower.  Since that start, he has been in 8 races finishing second once and off the board the remainder of the time.  Chances don’t look too promising but he has his career best effort on this track and he may just like this track.

3.  Stage School  11-1

Stage School has been on the board 13 of 15 grass starts which includes 7 wins.  Stage is making his debut in graded racing and will need to prove himself.  He surpassed the 100-speed barrier back in May with a 105.  His chances look pretty slim being that others have better speeds and longer experience at the graded level.  However, the race lacks any speed horses and Stage School may find this to be his ace card.  He usually races close to the front and, although he doesn’t do this much, he can set the pace.  The only other horse I consider a serious challenger for the lead is Grand Ball.  If Stage School can get an uncontested lead and break away, that could be his golden opportunity.

4.  I Don’t Stutter   3-1

Currently ranked 10^th, I Don’t Stutter is seeking his 3^rd graded win.  In 15  graded stakes, he has a record of  2-3-2.  Although that may not seem overly spectacular, it is nearly 50% in the money and has over $4.6 million in earnings.  I Don’t Stutter has been in a bit of a funk of late.  This past winter he posted his best speeds of 117 and 116.  Since then, he has averaged just a tad over 104 in his last four starts.  You do have to give him some credit, at least in three of those four starts as he was able to gain considerable ground and move up several positions in those races.  The problem he’s been having is dropping back close to 20 strides off the lead by the halfway point.  He needs to trim that down by about 5 lengths to have a shot.  But this race is soft in speed horses, which should help him out.

5.  Christchurch   5-2

Christchurch had a great effort in the G2 Dawn to Dusk Cup.  He fell back 15 from the leader at the half and powered his way to the front to win by over 2 lengths as the 6-5 favorite (speed 111).  Christchurch has won 5 of his last 7 starts that include 2 graded and 3 allowance races.  The allowance races I consider to be more like training races as the volume of graded races over the spring were pretty low.   Since October of 2008, Christchurch has had only 2 races with speeds below 100.  During this years meet, he has an average speed of 106.  He’s very reliable in hitting the board but has only 3 wins in 15 graded starts.  Could add another notch here.

6.  Carnival of Love   2-1

The highest ranked horse (currently 3^rd) has been tagged as the 2-1 favorite for this race. Carnival is an accomplished graded stakes runner who has well over $5 million in career earnings.  In 15 graded starts he has recorded a record of 5-4-1.  2010 has turned out to be a good year thus far.  He has 6 graded starts with 2 wins and 2 places and nearly $1.5 million in earnings this season alone.  Carnival of Love has an average speed of just under 110 for this season.  This all sounds great but jockey Brennan (13% win) will have to keep Carnival, who likes to run in the back of the field, within striking range.  If he drops back too far by the half (15 or more lengths) could spell some trouble.  Again, this field is soft in speed barons, so I don’t think Carnival will be adversely effected.

Good talent in this race and conditions look ideal for the late closers.  The outside horses look the best with Carnival of Love getting the top spot.