The Kings Fall G1

Three year olds and up will be running in the short 5 furlong The Kings Fall this weekend.   This is a G1 stakes race that will be run on the firm turf course in Berkshire.  Attendance at the track is expected to be heavy as the card includes a total of 7 graded races, so get there early for a good seat.  Now lets look at this decent field that will run for the $500,000 purse:

1.  Thor’s Odyssey   5-1

Thor switched from the dirt to the turf last fall and found a love for the grass.  His speed jumped from 81 on the dirt to 113 for the grass…that’s what I call PAYDIRT!!!!  He’s run 6 times on the grass and scored a record of 4-1-0.  He has done rather well in dirt competition, but excels on the grass.  He comes off his first graded stakes win with a 106 speed in the G3 The Saint Georges (5f).  He’s dangerous.

2.  Big Whoop  10-1

From November through March, Big Whoop had a win streak of 5 races, averaged a speed of  104.  Over his last two outings, his numbers have averaged 94, resulting in the higher odds.  Big Whoop makes his first graded stakes try and recent form is tough to ignore.  He’ll need to get back up to his win streak numbers, and maybe even a notch or two higher to walk off with the win in this race.

3.  Vespucci   11-1

Vespucci has won 10 of 33 grass races with just under $1 million in earnings.  He has done well over his career at the allowance and low stakes level but when it comes to graded racing, Vespucci keeps hitting foul balls.  In 14 graded starts, he has a record of 0-2-1.  Added to this, his last two races were over this track and he averaged a speed of 95.  None of this look too promising for Vespucci.

4.  Teferi’s Run  9-2

Teferi’s Run hasn’t won a graded race in three career tries but looks to be in a good position to do so in this race.  His speed numbers have been over 100 since January of 2009 in each race except three, showing his level of consistency.  He usually runs mid field and make his lunge for the wire late in the race.  But, there isn’t any standout early speedster, so don’t be surprised if trainer Jbfarms opts to send him on the lead, which he can handle.

5.  Ethics Paradox  4-1

Since last May, Ethics Paradox has raced 13 consecutive times with speeds surpassing the 100 threshold.  He’s an experienced grade runner, appearing 18 times at this level and producing a record of 3-2-3.  He’s only raced 5 furlongs twice in his career, winning both times, including his last race on a yielding surface in the G3  VIC-20 Sprint.  Don’t overlook Ethics ability.

6.  Again Chester   5-1

Again Chester has won his last two races, both graded.  Most recently, he scored the victory over this track in the G2 Duke of Mork with a speed of 104 on a good track running 6 furlongs.  The preceding race was a win with a 111 in the G3 Simon and Simon Cap (6.5f).  Prior to these were three straight seconds in low grade stakes.  He is capable of winning yet another.  He drops a furlong in distance and that could work against him as the extra running room may be needed.

7.  Urko’s King  7-2

Urko came to life when he turned three in 2009.  His speed numbers took a huge jump from 77 to 101.  Since then, he has not posted a sub-100 speed.  This classy horse has a 5-2-1 in 10 graded starts with a win on this track in the 5f, G3 The Temple winning easily with a speed of 100.  His graded record speaks loudly and it would not be prudent to ignore Urko in the exotic wagers.

8.  Tipping the Scales   15-1

Tipping the Scales has had good races at the allowance and non-graded levels.  With two graded races under his belt, Tipping hasn’t shown any dominance.  Finishing well back in both efforts makes it hard to see him pulling off the upset in this race.  He ships in from Nevada, so he’ll be traveling a distance for this race.

9.  Cold Fear   12-1

Cold Fear has an impressive record on the grass, 6-3-3 in 14 starts, rarely missing the board.  He has hit the 100-plateau twice, last time out on a wet track, which he really seems to enjoy.  Cold Fear jumps from the allowance race up to the top of the graded level for his first ever stake race.  I think he will perform well, but I don’t see him upsetting the more experienced stake entrants here.  He’s got talent and I think he’d fare well at the lower stake levels before taking on this level.

10.  Living Loud  17-1

Living Loud is the top ranked turf sprint runner, albeit, as a three year old.  Notwithstanding, he takes on the older horses here and comes in as the longshot.  Living Loud comes off a win in The Cheyenne (G2, 5f), breaking through the 100-speed level for the first time with a 106 at 17-1!   The Cheyenne was open to horses over 3, and he pulled off the upset.  Can he do it again at the same odds???

A lot of potential outcomes in this race, but I will go with the favorite Urko’s King.  He’s as competitive as they come and a proven winner.

Thor’s Odyssey has found a love for the grass and I feel he will continue to perform well, getting my second selection.

Teferi’s Run may make take a shot at wiring the field and is capable of doing just that.  Even if he fails in this short race, he should be in a good enough position to cash in for a piece of the purse.