Can Filly Win Last Leg of Triple Crown?
Overview
We won’t be seeing a Triple Crown winner this year in the New Yorker, but we will have the winners of the Bluegrass Derby and the Middle Jewel Stakes will be matched up once again. Lucky’s Howie, the 20-1 longshot winner in the
Conditions for the mile and a half track will be fast for this dirt race. Each of these horses will be going this distance for the first time and the only filly in the race is the Middle Jewel champion, You See LA.
Racing History & Facts:
Last year, Jockey J. White became the first person ever to win this race twice. His first New Yorker win came in 2000.
Favorites have performed well, winning 5 times, roughly 45% of the time and the winning speed has averaged a tad over 104.
Only 3 horses have won the race with odds over 10-1. The highest payoff was All Lit Up in 2002 at 25-1 odds, which turned out to be one of only two graded stake races he has won in his career.
Post position 10 has won the race three times, with post 3 and 5 tied with 2 wins each.
Post position 10 has hit the board the most (6 times), posts 3 and 11 are tied with four times. Post position 2 has never hit the board.
The fastest time for the race is 109.6 by Kissin Streetcry in 2008. The slowest time for the race was recorded by Virtuoso in 2006 with a speed of 96.2
The Field:
1. To Die is Gain 14-1
Races: 8 Record: 2-3-2
This colt comes in off a second in a non-graded stake race where he ran just off the leader, which is a rarity for him. Usually, To Die is Gain runs with the pack and he did well running off the lead. He is winless in two graded tries. His best chance looks to be a front runner as there are plenty of strong late closers in this race that will out power him. I don’t see him lasting on or near the front and will take a pass.
2. Mambo Heat 18-1
Races: 11 Record: 2-4-1
Mambo Heat had a horrible outing in the G2 Captain Hook, finishing last and beat by some of the entrants in this race. You can blame an off track for his poor outing, but I’m not sold that was the cause. A year ago he finished in second on an equally poor track. Mambo Heat ran well in the California Derby (G1), taking second and missing the win by a length, capping a career best speed of 101. Mambo has good late speed and if he can recover from the last outing, he just may be the spoiler in this race.
3. You See LA 9-2
Races: 9 Record: 6-1-1
As the only filly in the field, You See LA has proven herself to be a formidable foe. She is the winner of the Middle Jewel, the second leg of the triple crown. She came up short in the Bluegrass Derby, finishing second behind Lucky’s Howie. Jockey A Rolling is back aboard and can eek out another win with her. Positioning will be the key for a repeat win and she looks to be the one to beat.
4. Prussian 6-1
Races: 9 Record: 2-3-1
Prussian is a horse that cannot be overlooked. He finished second in the Middle Jewel behind You See LA, closing hard missing by under 2 lengths with a speed of 109. Prussian has been hot of late, scoring a speed of 106 in the Heat Less Stakes (G2) which he won by over 2 strides. He’s on top of his game and shouldn’t be ignored.
5. Just Vengeance 7-1
Races: 11 Record: 4-0-3
Just Vengeance typically runs near the front and we’ll probably see him 4th or 5th in the early going. He’s been in 8 graded races and collected purse money in each race, although he doesn’t always hit the top three positions. He comes off a third in the Bluegrass Derby where he ended four lengths back. The distance concerns me with this horse. In the Arkansas Derby, he lost 3 lengths in the final quarter when notching up to 9 furlongs. In the
6. Matusalem 20-1
Races: 12 Record: 4-4-1
Matusalem’s speed in his last outing is scary, posted at 79, however, this was in a very beatable short field of allowance horses and he took an easy walk around the track to win by 5, not requiring any substantial effort. He’s been doing extremely well at the allowance level, hitting the board in every race. It’s the graded level that Matusalem has underperformed, finishing well back in each of his three tries. I’d take a pass here, however, it would be interesting to see how he’d fare in the non-graded stake race level.
7. Summerinsaratoga 14-1
Races: 9 Record: 3-2-1
In the non-graded Metro Ack Stakes, Summerinsaratoga put in his best speed of 101 and finished second by a head. I think this horse will make a bid to be on the front end but I have problems seeing him last. He’s inconsistent in graded racing, hitting the board once in three starts. Although I love
8. Chelokee Again 6-1
Races: 12 Record: 4-4-3
Chelokee Again has been knocking at the door, seeking his first graded stakes win. He finished 3rd in the Captain Hook, 2nd in the Heat Less Stakes and 2nd in the Chicago Derby. All three races with speeds ranging from 102 to 104. Chelokee looks very sharp and should be a contender. Jockey D Hogin may not be having the best of years, but a 15% winning percentage is enough to get the job done.
9. Prussian General 10-1
Races: 7 Record: 4-3-0
Prussian General took the win in the Captain Hook, which was run on this track, with a speed of 108 on an offtrack. This was a big speed boost for Prussian, moving upwards from his prior career best of 99. This colt is an interesting entrant considering he has never finished lower than 2nd in his career and he has two wins over this surface already. Potential upsetter.
10. Tizjazz 13-1
Races: 10 Record: 2-1-2
I’m finding it difficult to get excited about Tizjazz. He hasn’t been able to break through the 100-speed level which will be necessary based on the past history of this race. With 7 graded starts, Tizjazz hasn’t been able to collect a win and been on the board twice. He does draw the post that has won the most times in this race, but still, things don’t feel right to me so I’ll be passing on him.
11. Lucky’s Howie 10-1
Races: 16 Record: 4-4-2
Jockey J. White has the most wins in this race of any other jockey and has selected the Bluegrass Derby winner to ride in an effort to win his third New Yorker. Lucky’s Howie stunned the
12. Stars of Buda 14-1
Races: 8 Record: 3-3-0
Stars of Buda is a scrappy young horse who is an extremely slow starter and the best bet is that he will trail the field early. He does dig in deep and can eat up the track late in the race. I like his style. Unfortunately, his sole two races off the board came most recently. He finished 10th in the Bluegrass Derby making up some ground against the huge field of 20. In the Arkansas Juvenile he just never found his late surge and also finished 10th. Stars of Buda has talent and needs to step up to the plate. This would be a great showcase to do it in however present form create significant doubts.
13. Begone Oasis 17-1
Races: 13 Record: 2-2-3
Begone Oasis has come up short in his pursuit of the Triple Crown. In both the
14. Dancer’s Secret 11-1
Races: 9 Record: 4-1-0
Things were looking shiny for Dancer’s Secret when he won the Felipe Alou Stakes (G1) in March with a speed of 103. Things went down hill from there as Dancer finished off the board in the California Derby (G1), Heat Less Stakes (G2) and Middle Jewel (G1). Dancer has raced all but 2 races at the
The Picks:
I hate to say it, but I’m in agreement with the oddmakers in this race. Getting my top pick in this race is You See LA. This filly is in peek form and has beaten many of these entrants in the Middle Jewel. As long as she doesn’t implode, she will be tough to beat.
Prussian looks awfully good lately. In fact, too good to ignore. I’m not going to ignore him at all. I’m making him my second selection.
Chelokee Again has good speed numbers of late and the added distance may also proof to be beneficial.
Spoilers:
The horses I think have a shot to upset and should be considered for some value and exotic wagers include (in post order):
Mambo Heat has knack for getting on board in graded racing and could rebound off last.
Prussian General put in great race last time out and could be the real thing.
Lucky’s Howie is
Good luck to all the betters and especially to the trainers!!!