High Roller Juvenile – Grade II

I’m reporting form Vegas and I’m here to tell you that anyone laying a bet on Saturday’s Grade II High Roller’s Juvenile is taking a massive gamble. If they tell you they know how this race is going to go down, run the other direction, cause it’s a scam baby. This one is as wide open as they come and should make for a thrilling six furlongs.

1 – FOREVER CHANGED(KY) – brookline – 13/1

Sire-FLOWER ALLEY

This colt is 2-for-2 lifetime, with both victories coming against allowance competition. In his first victory he won with a 75spf and a stalking trip. Win number two came in wire-to-wire fashion, as the youngster ran an easy-as-you-please 73spf. To contend against this field he will have to bump his figures, but I see nothing to suggest that he won’t do just that. Don’t be surprised if this 13/1 shot is in this thing as they come down the stretch.

2 – RAMOS FIZZ(KY) – super9 – 12/1

Sire-BIRDSTONE

One of a strong contingent of fillies in today’s field, Fizz has shown an ability to close furiously in her two previous races. She crossed the line first in both instances, doing what it took to win. Her maiden victory speed figure of 59 appears pedestrian, but she followed it up with a 73spf against allowance company, which might just say that she just does whatever it takes to get there first. Don’t bet the house on this one, but don’t count her out either.

3 – ME GUSTA(KY) – wendel – 8/1

Sire-VAN NISTLEROOY

Yet another undefeated racer, this young colt seems primed to be right near the front when they arrive at the line. He is two-for-two with 75 and 78 speed figures, both at today’s 6F distance. He has come from off the pace to crush the competition and win handily in both prior races. I’d expect Me Gusta to be charging fast as they come for home and, in my opinion, you’d be ill-advised to not include this guy amongst your top three.

4 – SPIRIT OF BOOM(KY) – kingmambo – 9/1

Sire-KINGMAMBO

This colt finished a non-descript 4th in his first ever race, but that effort was on turf and boy has he exploded since then. He has since won twice on dirt, breaking his maiden at 4.5F with a solid 68spf and then laying down the gauntlet with an 87spf at 5F in the GIII Television Stakes. So we have a graded winner with the top speed figure in the field and a 9/1 number. Don’t outsmart yourself. This guy is for real and he should be there at the end.

5 –BROAD GOVERNMENT(JPN)– texracing – 8/1

Sire-JOHANNESBURG

Here we have yet another two-time winner who has done it in impressive fashion. At 5F this colt won with an easy-peasy 66spf and then followed that up with an impressive 6F win in an allowance race, putting up a 75spf as he won going away. If he can show more growth this time out, the connections of this fine colt will likely be quite happy when all is said and done.

6 – DROID(KY) – pincay – 9/1

Sire-CURLIN

Another filly trying to challenge the boys here and she is coming in off a strong performance. After coming third (63spf) in her 5F debut, she handled a field of fillies at 6F and ran an improved 74 speed figure. She will need to be at her very best to rise above this graded field, but if she continues to show improvement, anything is possible.

7 – ROCK HARD ELEVEN(KY) – bigsteve54 – 16/1

Sire-ROCK HARD TEN

Another filly, she only comes in with one prior race and it was a solid, though not spectacular, third place (67spf) in a 4.5F stakes race. On the plus side, this daughter of Rock Hard Ten was making up ground in her debut and looks like she will appreciate the extra furlong and a half. It’s hard to see her topping a stellar field like this one, but with only one start, anything is possible.

8 – BRING INTHE CLOWNS(TUR) – rrl – 8/1

Sire-STRIKE THE GOLD

Another in our rather large filly contingent, this one is interesting in today’s race. She looks to be the purest speed in the field and was able to carry it to 6F with a 74spf in her debut win. Her style may put her in a good spot with a field primarily filled with stalkers and closers, but much will depend on her ability to improve in her second career race against much stronger competition. This one is hard to peg…she could win and she could be last.

9 – BASEL(KY) – caracol – 28/1

Sire-COLONEL JOHN

This colt comes in as the longest shot in the field according to the odds makers, but he is not without hope. He only has one start and it was a solid 6F maiden win with a 72spf. If he makes a jump forward, he could be right in the thick of it. The only problem is he is battling against a group in which many others look more likely to make that all important jump to the next level.

10 – PAST EVIDENCE(IRE) – cheyenne15 – 9/1

Sire-RAVEN’S PASS

One of the most tested and experienced horses in this field, it will be interesting to see if he can continue improving. He’s improved his speed figures from 64 to 68 to 78, the last two being against stakes competition. He only got a 5th out of his last quality effort however, as he ran into the speedy Me Gusta in the GIII Television Stakes. If he continues his improvement, he will be a definite factor in this one. If he levels or takes a step back, he will be a mid-pack also-ran. It will be interesting to see which direction he goes.

11 – STEET PREACHING(KY) – coomer3 – 9/1

Sire-STREET HERO

This colt has two pretty impressive speed figures at five furlongs, putting up a 77 in his debut victory and a 76 as he ran third in the Early Morning Special stakes. There are reasons for both hope and trepidation among the followers of Street Preaching. The strong speed figures and the excuse of an off track in his third place finish could make him a contender. On the down side, both races were at 5F and in his third place finish, he faded down the stretch. He will likely battle at the front early, but I’d be surprised to see him there at the finish.

12 – COLONAL GIPPER(KY) – gipper9 – 9/1

Sire-COLONEL JOHN

The second Colonel John progeny in this field, he appears to be a pure closer. In both his prior efforts, a 5F maiden win (69spf) and a 6F allowance second (75spf), Gipper dropped all the way to last place, before charging down the stretch. It seems a tall task to run by an entire field of this quality, but if he again improves, he just might get up for a piece of the trifecta.

13 – JEWEL TB(KOR) – hemarfarm2 – 26/1

Sire-ONE COOL CAT

This filly has long-shot status, but she also has talent and experience. She has won twice in three races, including an impressive 6F allowance win last time out where she threw down a strong 77 speed figure. It’s hard to say if she is ready for this step up in competition, but one good way to find out is to throw her in the race and see what happens.

14 – DEACTIVATOR(KY)– knightess – 5/1

Sire-SMART STRIKE

Here we have the morning line favorite, but instead of being an obvious lock, he is a bloody mystery. Yes, he is two-for-two and yes, both races have been impressive wire-to-wire wins; but the speed figures are good, not great (71/73) and both races were on turf. This guy could very well be the class of the field, but good luck getting me to pick him at short odds on a surface he has never before run on.

Well, there you have it. A truckload of talent and a boatload of uncertainty should make for a great race to watch. Good luck to all those involved in this grade II battle.

My prediction for this wild race: 4-3-5 (disclaimer: there is virtually no chance of this being correct)