100 Guineas – Bargain Series Stakes
The 100 Guineas is the second leg of the Bargain Series Triple Crown and is contested over a mile on the Virginia bluegrass. Last year’s winner Shoeless Greek gave the bargain world a thrill when he captured the first two legs of the Bargain Triple Crown. Today we have a full field of 20 trying to capture the glory including the knightmare trained Derby/Oaks winners. Let’s take a look at today’s massive field.
1. CTR’s Rainbow – 99-1 longshot has failed to be competitive in previous Bargain Series events and on top of that draws the rail in a monstrous field. Can not consider but I admire the persistence of her connections.
2. Mimbo Hill – Knightmare’s claiming eye has earned him several big bargain wins but non bigger then this 13.5k claim son of Right Win who captured the Bargain Derby by 2 ½ lengths last out. He is a true dual surface threat as he has 2 wins on both and he rates a good chance of following in Shoeless Greek’s footsteps today. He faces a talented field but 7-1 seems like a good price on this Bargain star in the making.
3. Tin Buck Slew – Knightmare’s prize graded winning filly broke through again in a big way last out when she beat a talented field in a walk over posting a 88 speed figure in The Bargain Oaks. Today’s entrants should be very very afraid as most of her best running has occurred on the grass and she’s primed for another big run today. She’s the 6-1 favorite and has earned every right to be considered the class of the class today.
4. NZED Pupil – Son of Pupil ran a solid 3rd in the Class Ack Juvenile as a 2 yr old but has failed to significantly improve since that race despite earning several checks and a nice amount of bps. Hard to foresee enough improvement to consider today but is a solid runner who has been well handled.
5. Mr. Wilkie – Son of Wilko has just two lifetime races to his credit and is still a maiden. He did run a respectable 84 last out on turf but got run down late to finish 2nd. Hard to see him breaking through in a field like this but he could be a pace factor on the front end.
6. Raise the Becon – We know this son of Zieten has class as he won the Class Ack in just his 2nd lifetime start. Has failed to improve as a three year old but a runner with proven Bargain Series form always must be respected and he is a live long shot today.
7. Fort De Joux – A maiden despite three lifetime starts this mare is up against it today and is hard to get behind at odds of 38-1 which seem a little short based on her resume. On the plus side perhaps she will get another go in the next ladies dirt race.
8. SPUMONI – Daughter of Aristocrat struggled her first 5 lifetime races but broke through in a major way last out winning by 1 ¼ lengths and posting a 87 speed figure in the process. If she can run back to her race last out she offer’s excellent value at 25-1 and must be considered for exotic wagering.
9. CT’S Flash – Lifeline’s colt is a proven Bargain commodity having won the 8 furlong El Joven as a two year old and finishing a better then it looked 6th last out facing older in the Silenius Mile. This fast colt should be setting a strong pace on the front end so if you think anyone can wire this field this is your candidate. I’ll be using this guy in most of my tickets.
10. Stronghill – Son of Stronghold (by Danehill) is as consistent as they come with a career record of 6-2-2-1. This will be his first attempt in a Bargain Series race and he is an intriguing new comer and has posted two 90+ speed figures which makes a handicapper go hmmm. Will be a definite pace factor and perhaps the undoing of talented CT’s Flash. I predict he’ll end up one of the top bargain turf sprinters before the year is done.
11. Key Party – Named after swingers from That 70s show this son of Purim clearly is as talented on turf as he is allergic to the main track as proven by his Bargain Derby Disaster. He should rebound nicely off of that work and will be running big late looking to pick off the big ones. Label him dangerous.
12. Payard – Was a well beaten 8th in the Class Ack but has become a respectable performer in starter allowances since that effort. Appears to thrive in distances greater then today’s mile so I’ll pass today but will look for his presence in future marathon events like the Arc later in the year.
13. Black Ash – Son of Tracker appears slightly more talented on dirt then turf based on his past performances but does have every right to improve offer his only turf start last out.
14. CTR’s Storm – LA Bred has been far back in previous Bargain Series attempts so I can not advise backing as anything more then a simulated show pony today.
15. Rampant Ego – I don’t think the connections named this son of Fairbanks after me but I can’t say for certain. What I can say is today will be the first time running for trainer gowans who claimed him last out for 20k. He has some proven turf form so could pick up a share today at reasonable odds.
16. Summer Storms – Florida bred broke her maiden in smashing fashion at 9.5 furlongs on the grass back in February but has regressed since then. This will be her first attempt in the Bargain Series so she has the potential to fire big here but it’s hard to get overly excited about her prospects today.
17. Stolen So Soon – Has never finished out of the money in his 3 lifetime turf races but with speed figures in the 70s this son of Decarchy will likely see that streak come to a screeching halt today.
18. Vatican Army – Daughter of Concerto has posted 3 straight 84 speed figures but remains a maiden which is a bit of bad luck I’d say. She could pick up a check today at a nice price but may need to improve some speed wise to make it happen.
19. Notting – Gowans claimed this son of City Place two races ago for 20k and it paid immediate dividends to the tune of a strong 2nd place finish in a turf sprint last out. Showed respectable closing form in that effort so it will be interesting to see how he fares in his Bargain Series debut.
20. Secret Award – Cali bred mare ran a respectable 5th in the Ozark Diamond last out but appears to have more main track ability vs. turf. She could serve as pace pressure but is hard to back today.
Outlook:
Knightmare could easily complete the exacta today with his talented runners and I am going to pick Tin Buck Slew to win the day today due to her proven form and graded winning ability on the grass. Key Party is my pick to get up for 2nd and Derby winner Mimbo Hill should round out the trifecta. If one of these fail to fire or his pace scenario is too easy look for CT’s Flash to make some noise.
Good luck to all of the connections in today’s race and as always thanks to knightmare and all of the regulars in the Bargain Series.