Japanese Derby Could be Close One Again this Year!
The second running of the G1 Japanese Derby is upon us, a race I covered last year and nailed the exacta. It was one heck of a race where the pace setter, Tex Gold strolled out to a 10 length lead and looked to be uncatchable. However, late closing Title Defense made up those 10 lengths in the final quarter of the race and it came down to a photo which took the judges a long time to determine the winner. In the end, Tex Gold barely held on, and I don’t know how. I’ve watched the replay several times and it is tight. But, we can’t complain when you are holding a winning ticket and we’ll see if we can do that once again.
This year will be a bit more challenging as the race is a drilling 12 furlongs and several of the entrants have not gone that far. Adding to the challenge is that the turf is tagged as yielding and many of the three year olds have limited or no experience on the wet track. Added to this, we have Blind Harry who has perfect eyesight on the turf with a 6-race win streak on the line.
1. Buda Rocks 5-1
Graded Record: 6 races 0-2-3
Buda Rocks has a second in his sole start on a yielding track, showing that the race conditions shouldn’t have an adverse effect on him. He comes off a third in the Sydney Derby (G1, 12f) with a speed of 96 after briefly gaining the lead late in the race. He’ll probably race just off the early pace, probably 4th or so. I don’t think he’ll beat this group but he may be a factor in the triples.
2. Burnt Lawn 9-1
Graded Record: 4 races 1-1-1
Burnt Lawn is coming into form posting a career best speed of 99 in his win of the Sydney Derby (G1, 12f) drawing off by over 2 strides. He’s bred for distance running and the grass. This horse explodes with late speed, especially in the final quarter of the race. Longshot players may find opportunity with this one as the distance suits well and gets bonus with jockey Ledwith (25% win) at the helm.
3. Time Honored 9-1
Graded Record: 1 races 0-0-1
Time Honored was the beaten favorite in his debut in graded racing where he tried to wire the field in the South African Derby (G1, 12f), holding on to third with a speed of 97. That was his first try at 12f and he faded off towards the end of the race. The distance may have been a bit much and he’ll be looking to wire this field. He is untried on an offtrack. His speeds have been good of late but I don’t see him holding on at the wire against this bunch.
4. Blind Harry 9-2
Graded Record: 1 races 1-0-0
9-2 look like good odds for this rugged colt. Blind Harry is undefeated on the turf, winning 6 consecutive races. He won his debut graded race at 10-1 in The Japanese 2000
5. Kyrial 15-1
Graded Record: 0 races 0-0-0
Kyrial showed a nice jump in his speed numbers between January and March bouncing from 79 up to 92. Since March, Kyrial has an average speed of just of 93 going distances from 10 to 11 furlongs. He likes the lead and will have his opportunity to go for it. He’s okay on the wet track, with 2 shows in his 2 races on the off track. He looks unlikely to me as this is his first graded start and his speed numbers are a few notches below several others in the field.
6. Fusaichi Zombie 5-2
Graded Record: 8 races 3-2-0
Fusaichi Zombie is tagged as the favorite and it’s hard to dispute the reasons for this. Fusaichi comes off a strong win in the 2000
7. Gimlet Chilled 6-1
Graded Record: 2 races 1-0-0
In March, Gimlet Chilled won his initial graded race in the Manatee Classic (G3, 10f) with an impressive speed of 104. He followed that with an appearance in the Sydney Derby (G1, 12f) and disappointed backers finishing 6th with a speed of 90. That was his worst race to date and the only time he’s finished off the board in his career. Hard to tell what the issue was in that race and I believe he can rebound and improve coming into this race.
8. A. P. Popular 7-1
Graded Record: 2 races 1-0-0
A.P. Popular finished second behind Gimlet Chilled in the Manatee Classic (G3, 10f) last time out finishing with a speed of 101. His speeds have been going up with each race and he is coming off a well-deserved 2 month rest. There are no real slow starters in this race, and I think he may find himself running near the rear early on. He can make his way to the front and could possibly be underrated.
9. Bogoesaway 6-1
Graded Record: 3 races 0-0-1
In his last race, Bogoesaway put in a speed of 101 in the Young Men’s Mile (G2, 8f) finishing third making a move too late in the race. He has mixed results on the wet surface, showing a second in two races. He’s never gone a distance more than a mile and based on his last race, extra distance may be helpful. Hard to say how he will respond and being that his last race on an off track was a disaster, I’ll take a pass.
On paper, it looks like anything can happen. The favorite looks good, but the extra distance is a question mark. Others have been showing improvement, and there is always the question of whether the early speedsters will hold off the late chargers.
Ok, here we go….Blind Harry extends his streak. He hasn’t raced on an off track but has shown he can go the distance.
Fusaichi Zombie is hard to pass up considering his speed numbers and fondness for a wet track. He’s unproven going longer route distances so he’s also a gamble.
Burnt Lawn was a surprise in the Sydney Derby and has the ability to surprise once again with the top jockey aboard.