Why have they stopped running the Ferry from Swansea!!!

Race : Tattersalls Gold – Grade I – $500,000
Track : Ireland
Id; 4323.5909
Restrictions : All horses, 4 years old and up
Distance : A mile and five sixteenths on the Turf

This is the first older grade 1 of the year in Ireland it is usually used as a stepping stone to bigger and better things. It has been won by some very good horses many have gone on to be top class sires as well. In fact many a placed horse in the race has gone onto very good things as well.

The race ahs not really had many high profile winners in terms of stallions until the past decade.

Montjeu – he won as a 4yo in 2000. He is now one of the best stallions in the world. He has sired classic winners almost every year at stud. He has more Derby winners than crops which does say something about his ability and his stamina index. His first crop of post real life runners are now three and include several grade 1 winners already. It would be no surprise for him to pick up more classic success in 2010. In real life he is the sire of 45 graded winners already and if he does not die young will easily pass the 100 mark which makes him up there with the best. The thing about this horse is that his best genetic cross is poor in the sim because of the general undervaluing of certain French sire lines.

The next three sires all are really untested in real life but have good prospects on paper.

Hurricane Run – he was a classic winning and Arc winning son of his sire and world champion racehorse. He did well with his first yearlings at the sales as well. The statistics say being a grade 1 open age 3yo winner he has a better than average chance of making it as a sire. His German back end is a bonus. He should be able to sire around 5% stales winners to runners in the sim all things being equal. Do not expect many sprinters and also horses that reach top form to quickly.

Notnowcato – named after the phrase for the Pink Panther movies. He was a typical Sir M Stoute horse he kept improving with age and was tough and durable. Several grade 1 wins including here over Dylan Thomas showed him in good light. He is from a very good female family as well which is an added bonus. His own sire was no mug and has had reasonable success as a sire of sire at a moderate level. This is his best son and had the support of many top breeders which is a help. He should do well at stud but do not expect many top class 2yo’s again he should be capable of around 3-4% stakes winners to runners. His sim record from few chances is not that bad and he is good value for money.

Duke Of Marmalade – it is easy to get confused with this horse. Their was a top class racehorse with the same name in the 1970’s I believe a certain Lester Piggot even rode that horse in the Arc. He again is a good racehorse from a decent family. His 3yo form was not so great so is a big negative. He is also a less obvious horse in terms of conformation than Dylan Thomas who also had better form as 3yo. Of the two I know which one I would rather be breeding two. He was well supported and should get some stakes winners how long he does over the long term is another story as is the case with many Coolmore sires. He should have a similar level of ability to Notnowcato.

I mentioned about French sires in Montjeu review. Earlier this year I highlighted a few sires based in France and it may well be worth having a little recap of that group. Desert Style is now the sire of the joint highest rated turf horse in the world in 2010 Paco Boy at this point he will be one of the more interesting new sires for 2011 having won an open age grade 1 at three. The other joint highest rated horse has Bering as a dam sire another horse mentioned. American Post had the firs past the post in A French Classic last weekend only for the horse to be placed sixth that result could have only happened in France!! But it shows the merit of French sire. Elusive City and Green Tune are both the sires of two graded winners in 2010 the same as A P Indy and Awesome Again which probably tells you more about how massively overrated they are than the ability of the two French sires.

FALLOUT SHELTER (KY) GHOSTZAPPER x NIJINSKY II (CAN) x BUCKPASSER

Nijinsky as a dam sire has had his day. He needs a massive reduction in ability. This should not be so as a dam sire. Since 2007 only two horses have been graded winners with Nijinsky as a dam sire. If we consider the game is two years ahead of time this number is likely to be lower. His sim record is therefore way to high to reflect this fall off in ability as his broodmares get older and there are less of them around. This horse is in excellent form his only loss in his last five races was over 12f and we can say that was down to the trip. He therefore has obvious claims in this race and as long as he does not bounce should be right in the mix in this race.

PRINCIPE DE VIANA (ENG) MEDICEAN (GB) x HABITAT x ACK ACK

The same comments about Nijinsky can also be aimed at Habitat should be an outstanding dam dam sire but of no real worth as a dam sire now. The obvious question here is why not reduce the length of time dam sires are sim active after death it would make a lot of sense. This is another horse that has top class speed figures and form. He likes the trip as well. He should be the speed in the race which may be a benefit in a small field. It I shard not to think he is not going to play a part at the business end of the race as well.

CERTIFIABLY INSANE (IRE) DANEHILL DANCER (IRE) x MACHIAVELLIAN x CAERLEON

This is easily the best bred horse in the race so far. To prove a point with dam sires and fall off let’s look at the facts. Nijinsky and Habitat are to of the outstanding dam sires of the last forty years. Yet in 2009 Machiavellian had 6 individual graded stakes winner in real life. He is now a better dam sire than both put together and at least double their combined ability. This is not though reflected in the sim though he himself is not massively underrated. This horse had a very good win as a three year old in an open age grade 1. It is somewhat strange he has not really built on that so far in 2010 maybe he is an autumn horse there are those horses that do better at certain times of year. With wear and tear that is not as obvious in the sim as it was six or seven years back. He again has the ability to win but it would be somewhat of a surprise if he does on recent form.

SWEDISH OAK (SWE) HEART OF OAK x BROAD BRUSH x MT. LIVERMORE

This horse sire ran in England and won a race on the fibresand at Lingfield. I am guessing he was then exported and maybe ran in Sweden. The evidence I have found is that he is totally useless as a sire. His highest rated horse in the world would be the sim ability wise of a 2,000 claim horse. Outside of local bred races his horses should be all totally useless. The fact he has two stakes winners in the sim is unreal and suggests that he has been rated on having a well know sire and dam sire rather than his likely hood to sire runners of any international repute. Broad Brush is a sire to keep an eye on as a dam sire he had a very good 2009 and if he can do so again in 2010 may well be worth an upgrade. This horse is improving and won a graded race in his last start. His speed figures are getting better as well. With the field size he has obvious place claims and could run even better than that.

LAMBASTE (ENG) DENOUNCE x THE MINSTREL (CAN) x ELA-MANA-MOU (IRE)

This horse’s sire was unraced and therefore should be a sim skid. The Minstrel is the second dam sire in the game that was bred in Canada it seems strange to me these horses do not carry the (CAN) suffix for example the two here Awesome Again, Smart Strike Deputy Minister, Saint Ballado, Storm Bird and of course Northern Dancer are other well know Canadian bred horse as well. This horse is not without a chance in this race. His last run was poor but the two before were very good including a graded win. If that was his bounce he is at a slight advantage over the others here as they are more likely to put in a bad run than him. He cannot be ruled out and has the ability to place.

This is a small field but it is a classy one. Any of the horse could win or come last which should make it good race to watch.

My selections are as follows:-

1 Fallout Shelter, top class horse in great from
2 Swedish Oak have a feeling the horse is still on the upgrade
3 Principe De Viana race should suit him but trip a bit to far