The Aussie Queen
This week we see a very short field of five that has shown up in Victoria, Australia. The good news is that this race is wide open and I can make a case for every single one of the horses entered and that is reflected in the odds where the morning line “co-long shots” are a whopping 7/2. Couple this with the morning line co-favorites are 5/2, and you have a race that anybody can win. We have horses that are graded stakes winning and horses that are trying the graded thing for the first time, but one thing is for sure….someone has to win right.
1 5-2 TXACE06- Crown N’ Coke(ENG) homebred 4yo Colt
Authorized x G-rated Crown Royale (Kingmambo x Danzig)
20-7-5-1 698K career earnings
Txace06 (21.7%- 53.3%) brings a very nice four year old son of Authorized. The real question for this guy is whether he is going to handle the distance. He has fired some monster speed figures in the past, but all of them have been at nine furlongs or shorter. His one try at longer was the 10f Grade III Awa Pooie which was an unmitigated disaster. He was crushed by 17 finishing a disappointing seventh. The question is if this was due to the distance or the step up in class. I find it very hard to believe that a horse that can run a 116 speed figure along with a couple of other 110+ ones will be that bad in only a grade three. He has run a 111 speed figure at 7.5 furlongs which tells me that he just can not make the ten furlongs and is a miler that can go nine. When he runs his race he likes to sit just off the lead and stalk the pace, and if you see him out of it early his race is over. I certainly think that the 93 speed figure in his lone ten furlong try could be an aberration and he might fire, he looks like a horse with some distance limitations. There is a real lack of speed in this race and he has shown some speed in the past so there is a possibility he could be on the engine early looking to get the lead. Not sure he can get it, but that might be an interesting angle to look for.
Best speed-116
Best speed at distance- 93
Race trip- Stalker, should be close, but might just get the lead
Predicted finish- 4th, don’t think he can get the 10 furlongs, best horse at 9 or less
2 3-1SHAMRAN8- Jimboomba Jack(ENG) scratch homebred 6yo Horse
Rainbow Quest x Woodman x Irish River
39-13-6-2 646K career earnings
Shamran8 (17.4%- 43.7%) shows up this week with a grizzled veteran son of the late great sire, Rainbow Quest. This horse has some interesting past performances in that he has two very easy to see form cycles. He hit what looked like a career peak back in early 2009 and then went pretty flat and looked done. Late last year he stated to perk up again and is in a very good form cycle right now and might just be better than he has ever been. It sure looks like a savvy claim for 4K back in early 2008. This will be his sixth crack at graded company, and he has a win and two other top three finishes. His win was in a grade II at this distance of ten furlongs which certainly removes any doubt about him and this distance. To add even more value to this guy is that the Grade II he won was…yep you guessed it, the Aussie Queen. I would like to say that was a monster performance, but it was not. He ran against only three other horses and could produce only a 99 speed figure which will probably not get it done this week. This guy is one of the deeper closers this week which is not really a good place to be with the lack of pace that should be up front. He might pass a couple of tired horses, but will most likely have too much work to do down the stretch. I like the form, and I like the fact that he has won this race, I just do not think that he can get a race big enough to win this week.
Best speed-109
Best speed at distance- 109
Race trip- Deep closer, not an ideal trip in this situation
Predicted finish- 3rd, not sure his best would be good enough.
3 7-2 WAREMBLEM3- Flying Indy(KY) homebred 5yo Horse
A.P. Indy x G-rated War Flag Flying (Fusaichi Pegasus x Storm Cat)
30-10-5-1 767K career earnings
Waremblem3 (16.5%- 48.8%) shows up in Australia this week with a royally bred five year old that has one graded win in eight tries. His one graded win came in the Grade III Night at the Exbury which was at this week’s ten furlong distance. I do not think this is the best horse in the field and if the field was larger I would not care for his chances at all, but he finds a perfect set up this week. He simply looks like the only speed in the race and he has shown the ability to blow a race up early getting away by eight plus. I do not see any horses this week that are going to go with him and I think he pulls a Precious Passion and runs away and hides. The race he ran in late march in the Little Guppy was the race he needs this week. He got away by almost nine lengths and stayed out there and won easy by almost four. He has been somewhat consistent as of late and his form is pretty good which leads me to think that this guy has a perfect right place right time set up. He has popped a 111 speed figure in a graded stakes race at this distance so he certainly can get it done this week.
Best speed- 111
Best speed at distance- 111
Race trip- Only speed in the race, should be all alone up front
Predicted finish- 1st, should be able to run away from this field.
4 7-2 GALLOPLAZ- Kansas Comet(IRE) homebred 4yo Colt
Danehill Dancer x G-rated Braggin’ Rights (Montjeu x Seattle Slew)
17-5-2-4 182K career earnings
Galloplaz (17.7%- 40.7%) ships in from jolly old England this week with one of the two four year olds. This looks like another horse that might have some distance issues this week. His pedigree certainly looks like ten furlongs will not be an issue, but his running lines say differently. He has yet to run at this week’s distance, but does have one start at twelve furlongs which was not what one would call good. He was able to get the lead for the first two calls, but fell apart late and finished sixth beaten by over fourteen lengths. He ran another similar race in August of last year where he has the lead by four at the third call but faded to third beaten by almost five. Of his last four wins, all have been wire to wire, but none have been over 8.5 furlongs. Every time he has gone longer than that he has been unable to hold on. This horse really looks like he is a miler that can get a bit further. His best race was back in late October of last year where he sat a bit further back at nine furlongs and closed strong getting second and missing by only one length. He ran a nice 110 speed figure in that race, and a similar effort will work well this week. His best efforts to date were against three year old horses and has faired pretty poorly since he has turned four. The one really troubling thing is that as much speed as he showed against younger horse, he has showed zero of that speed against older horses and I think he will have the same issues this week. He absolutely needs the lead to win, but has not been able to hold on at this distance and has been unable to get a sniff at the lead against older horses. Even with all of those knocks against him this is a horse that has run some big races and is still young enough to improve.
Best speed- 110
Best speed at distance- N/A
Race trip- Will try to get the lead, but don’t think he can
Predicted finish- 5th, too many strikes against this one this week at this distance
5 5-2 GRRM2- Death Among Us(KY) homebred 4yo Colt
Ghostzapper x F-rated Death Dragon (Kingmambo x Danehill)
17-7-4-1 236K career earnings
Grrm2(25.2%- 56.3%) comes to Victoria this week in a giant step up in class from what has been a very protected early campaign. This guy has been running in owner bid allowance races for the better part of a year and a half with great success. He took one crack at a graded stakes race back in April of 2009 where he ran an ok fifth of nine closing slightly. After that race he ran in nine consecutive bid allowance races where he got three of his seven wins. Even after all of that we have to look at his last race, which was a big one. He stepped up to a listed stakes race at ten furlongs and crushed winning by an expending two lengths and a 110 speed figure against a decent albeit short field. Grrm is one of the better trainers in the Sim (better than me anyways), so I will give him the benefit of the doubt on this guy. He has won three in a row coming into this week, but he has been the favorite in his last 7 races so he should be winning. He is by far the deepest closer in the field which is not going to help his chances as this should be a race run with pretty pedestrian fractions early and does not set up for a closer. There is also te problem that his last race might have been a little too good as he ran a career best speed figure and might bounce a little this week. I would not be shocked at all to see him win this week, but he has quite a few things going against him.
Best speed- 110
Best speed at distance- 110
Race trip- Deepest of the closers, will be way out of it early
Predicted finish- 2nd, could win, but bounce looks very possible.
This is how I see it.
1st call- the 3 gets on the engine as the 4 tries to go with him
5 2 1 4 3
2nd call- the 3 is getting away as the 4 is starting to pack it in while the five is winding up
5 2 4 1 3
3rd call- the 2 is starting to get a run and gets first jump while the one is still in the game
5 4 1 2 3
And down the stretch they come- the five is really moving now as the three is starting to feel the effort so far. The 4 has called it a day while the 2 tries to hang in there, but is hanging a bit.
4 1 5 2 3
At the line- the three just hangs on from a fast closing 5
4 1 2 5 3