Captain Hook, New Yorker Stepping Stone?
Yaarrrrr, Mateys! It’s time once again for the Grade 2 Captain Hook Stakes! 14 privateers… err… 3yo colts are ready to go for $200,000 Sim doubloons; a slot in the New Yorker could be in the cards for the winner, too. There’s been a little bit of rain in the New York area this week, and the track is drying-out, listed “good”. Since we know that “X” NEVER marks the spot, let’s have a look at the past-performance data instead of the treasure map…
SHELTERED will go from the rail, at 14/1. Trainer saver was hoping to get an easier spot for his A. P. Indy colt, but he’s found a pretty tough group here. Winless-for-2010 rider doesn’t exactly raise confidence. While his 3rd in the Scam Stakes awhile back was pretty solid, he’ll need to improve on even that performance to get a chunk of the purse here.
STYGIOPHOBIA, aka “Fear Of Hell”, will go in next at 12/1. While this son of Unbridled’s Song trained by lawyerron had a lifetime-best showing in an allowance last time out, his stakes performances have been sub-par. Is he on the improve like his speed numbers say, or was he empowered by being the class-of-the-race last time? Stay tuned.
PRUSSIAN GENERAL is also 12/1 and goes from the 3rd post. He has won half of his six lifetime starts, and been 2nd in the other half. Trained by waremblem5, he passed his initial stakes test with flying colors last time out, and looks to have a good shot at doing more damage today, though he faces a more-proven field.
ADVANCED REPORT has run well against good ones in his last two starts, and could very well contend strongly at 9/1 today. A chestnut son of Admire Moon out of a Street Cry mare, this racingfan trainee likes to have some pace to run at, a problem in this field nearly full of closers.
LAST OF THE GOLD goes from the 5 post for sirkilroy at 8/1. A son of the prolific A. P. Indy, he has run strongly with twin 100 speeds in graded stakes in his last two following an impressive 4-race win streak. He’ll have to weave through a big crowd unless his mid-level rider can manage to rouse him early and place him more forwardly today.
ZABEEL CONTENDER takes another shot at the class rise after a decent 5th in the G1 Wooden Indian last time out. The off-track may help; this son of Zabeel ran fairly well in his one career off-track try. He goes off at 11/1 for con10der3 and has a lot to prove in order to win this one.
ANY POINT PEGASUS is the longshot of today’s field at 24/1 despite a 3-race win streak with a 101 in his last; the reason is that this is a very large class rise for this son of Any Given Saturday. The tgo trainee is not without a shot; he ran well in his one off-track try, a 5-furlong sprint in his 2nd career start, and has looked strong in all of his route races, all wins. Might very well outrun his odds.
MAMBO HEAT has banged heads with the best this year, just missing in the G1 Cal Derby to 4th-ranked Curly Q last time out and finishing just behind Derby winner Lucky’s Howie in his previous start. Trainer stormracin hopes that his Heatseeker colt can establish winning ways here, possibly so he can take another swing at ’em in the New Yorker in 4 weeks. Decent mud form helps things.
CHELOKEE AGAIN is the morning-line favorite at 5/1, and shows a strong 2nd in the slop in finishing 2nd to Derby runnerup You See LA in the G2 Chicago Derby. The Chelokee colt is the only runner in here to have broken the magic 100 speed level three times, and these comprise his last three starts. It’s hard to imagine this ads2 trainee missing the board today despite the fact he’s probably going to be dealing with a difficult slow early-pace scenario.
CHICUCO possesses the highest speed figure in the field, the 106 he earned when running 3rd in the Arkansas Juvenile Derby Lock Prep last month. The two that finished ahead of him that day didn’t fare too well in the Bluegrass Derby, but two he did finish in front of have run strong races, including one getting third at Kentucky. The arameo-trained More Than Ready colt goes off at 6/1 and is dangerous with a top effort.
HELLHOUND has banged heads with top-class runners all spring with only a little success, a 3rd in the Sand Castle Derby. The Big Brown colt, trained by wistful0, gets 14/1 treatment by the CPU. He has shown early lick in some of his past races; will he go out early today and try to steal it?
IOSKEHA also showed a surprising bit of early speed last out, a nifty allowance win over Bill The Butcher, an Equinics winner. Might this one also go out fast with HELLHOUND? If they both do, it might end badly, but if one or the other gets out in front easily, there could be a surprise finish in store. This son of St Averil, trained by nureyev, will go off at 9/1.
HARPER II gets the penultimate spot in the gate. This 15/1 shot, a colt by Maybry’s Boy, faded late in his one stakes try; trainer kauffmac2 is taking a bit of a moon-shot here.
BIGTIME FAVORITE gets the outside post, going off at 8/1. The axemjack86 trainee has been facing top ones in 2-turn races lately and had only occasionally been able to get much success, but he popped a serious one in his last, a strong runnerup finish in the Sand Castle Derby. That run was off just 2 weeks’ rest; can he duplicate that kind of effort off the nice six-week rest he received this time?
Time for betting recommendations:
1st: CHELOKEE AGAIN has been consistent, looks classy
2nd: ANY POINT PEGASUS looks every bit a “live” longshot
3rd: MAMBO HEAT should be strong, maybe enough to get to the New Yorker